Transcript Energy and Economy

Energy and Economy
Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]
CHP continued…
How Fuel Cells Work?
 How electrolysis works
 How Fuel Cells Work (1)
Advantages of Direct FuelCell® (DFC®) stationary power plants
FuelCell Energy’s DFC power plants offer numerous advantages over
conventional and alternative power generation sources:
 Ultra-clean due to their virtual absence of pollutants which supports sustainability
goals, facilitates clean air permitting during installation, and benefits public health
throughout the lifecycle of the power plant
 Economical because high efficiency reduces fuel costs
 Reliable baseload power provides continuous electricity and heat around-the-clock
 On-site distributed generation improves power reliability and energy security
 Fuel flexible DFCs can be operated on clean natural gas, renewable biogas or
directed biogas
 Combined heat and power (CHP) further drives economics and efficiency — as
high as 90 percent, depending on the application
 Avoid investment and maintenance in costly, difficult to site transmission &
distribution (T&D) infrastructure
 Versatile DFC power plants convert biogas waste disposal problems into ultraclean power generation solutions for operations that generate biogas
 High efficiency minimizes the carbon footprint of DFC plants operating on natural
gas; DFC plants are generally classified as carbon neutral by regulatory bodies
when operating on biogas due to its renewable nature
Source: Fuel Cell Energy, also available at http://www.fuelcellenergy.com/why-fuelcell-energy/benefits/
5
Economics of Smart Grid (Demand Response)
- the need to have a framework to facilitate the Demand Response in power market
- the Importance of the bilateral information exchange
Hourly Power Consumption Analysis (KEPCO)
Program Initiation
Software CD Design
-6-
Hourly Power Consumption Analysis (KEPCO)
Hourly Power Consumption Analysis (KEPCO)
Main Menu
-8-
9
Data
1. Raw Data Summary
Raw Data on Customer Information
KEPCO Affilate
Data Points
(’05-’09)
Raw Data on Customer Load Profile
Number
Customer
KEPCO Affilate
경기북부
72,923
2,081
경기북부
충북
60,664
1,271
충남
129,646
인천
Number of Days
(’05-’09)
Number
Customer
1,041,137
764
충북
269,208
182
3,153
충남
402,621
248
141,233
2,743
인천
1,723,160
1,209
전북
47,882
976
전북
930,248
630
제주
14,012
214
제주
298,976
230
전남
100,644
1,965
전남
1,594,857
1,148
경기
257,011
5,774
경북
123,928
85
경남
81,056
1,714
경기
5,095,058
3,460
강원
48,538
1,193
경남
1,516,664
1,055
부산
199,026
4,213
강원지사
312,906
235
대구&경북
124,698
2,940
강원
249,733
239
서울
236,798
5,969
부산
3,668,584
2,291
1,514,131
34,206
대구
573,901
370
남서울&서울
2,903,737
2,003
총합계
20,704,718
14,149
총합계
10
Data Cleaning Process
Load Profile
Customer Profile
Data Points
(’05-’09)
Total
#
#
#
#
1,514,131
Number of Days
(’05-’09)
Number
Customer
34,206
Elimination of Duplicates
Choose in between the period of 2005.01 - 2009.12
Elimination of Data Recording Error 2005.02.30/31
Final Sample selection in conjunction with load profile
Total
총합계
435,398
14,149
# Elimination of Daily Duplicates
# Elimination of Duplicate Errors at the KEPCO Affiliate
(South Seoul/Seoul)
# Final Sample selection in conjunction with load profile
가공된 고객정보 데이터
Data Points
(’05-’09)
20,704,718
Number
Customer
가공된 전력부하 데이터
Number
Customer
8,645
Number of Days
(’05-’09)
총합계
12,354,287
Number
Customer
8,645
11
데이터 현황
3. 모형적용을 위한 고객정보 및 전력부하 데이터 현황 (1)
분류1
분류2
주택용
분류3
코드
기업수
비고
저압
100
199
저압
211
87
고압A
221
2,119
고압B
231
1
고압A
226
844
고압B
236
7
임시(을)
2X8
696
저압
213
3
고압A
223
16
갑
410
1
병
430
43
갑
일반용
을
교육용
농사용
12
데이터 현황
3. 모형적용을 위한 고객정보 및 전력부하 데이터 현황 (2)
분류1
분류2
기업수
비고
311
51
고압A
321
483
고압B
331
2
고압A
721
2,428
고압B
731
4
고압A
726
1,399
고압B
736
161
고압C
746
1
을
610
35
갑
905
16
을
915
68
을
병
가로등
코드
저압
갑
산업용
분류3
심야
=> 위 것과 함께 하나로
13
KSIC ( Korean standard industrial classification) and KEPCO Data
14
Panel Type of Regression Equation
15
Fitted Load Pattern (Chemical Industry C, High Voltage A)
- Customer Number [726-0305]
- Actual and Fitted load pattern
480Hours after Jan. 1st
16
Simulation Result(Chemical Industry C, High Voltage A)
- Customer Number [726-0305]
- With the 20% Price Increase, following gives the expected impact on power
consumption
480Hours after Jan. 1st
Smart Grid Taxonomy—Dividing the System
Telco, Energy,
Computer,
Consultant, Software,
Hardware
Companies
Telco, Manufacturers
Companies
Power, Energy
Companies
Source: Leeds, DJ, The Smart Grid in 2010: Market Segments, Applications and Industry Players, GTM Research,
2009
Taxonomy of Smart Grid: Players
Source: Leeds, DJ, The Smart Grid in 2010: Market Segments, Applications and Industry Players, GTM Research,
2009
Consumer Portal—Future Concept of Energy Management (Costumer Side)
Costumer portal is “a combination of hardware and software that enables two-way
communication between energy service organizations and equipment within the consumers’
premises”
Electric Power Research Institute, Consumer Portal Stakeholder FAQ and Survey, IntelliGrid EPRI, 2005
1. Google Power Meter Project
Eight utilities representing over 10 million customers from 3 countries and 6 different US states have become the first
partners of the Google PowerMeter project. They are offering these smart meters to their customers to enable them to
access detailed information on their home energy use. To assist the utility partners with the integration to Google
PowerMeter, the group is also joined by Itron, one of the world's largest meter manufacturers. Here are the first 9 partners:
JEA
Glasgow EPB
Location: Northeast
Location: Glasgow, Kentucky
Florida
Customers: 7,000
Customers:
417,000
Reliance Energy
Location: Mumbai, Delhi &
Orissa, India
Customers: 6.8 million
San Diego Gas &
Electric ®
Location: San Diego
County and Southern
Orange County, California
Customers: 1.4 million
TXU Energy
Location: Texas
Customers: 2.2 million
White River Valley
Electric Cooperative
Location: Portions of
Christian, Douglas, Ozark,
Stone and Taney counties
in Missouri
Customers: 40,000
Toronto Hydro–Electric
System Limited
Location: Toronto, Ontario,
Canada
Customers: 684,000
Wisconsin Public
Service
Location: Northeast and
Central Wisconsin and an
adjacent portion of Upper
Michigan
Customers: 450,000
Yello Strom
Location: Germany
Customers: 1.4
million
EUROPE
No
Telecom
companies
Power companies
Main activities
1
Metering data center, M2M communication network
2
UTILIS’s smart metering, integrated solution with billing systems
3
NES meters, meter management software
4
Management of metering information, reporting, maintenance and
support of all devices
5
System to manage the deployment of Linky smart meters
6
T connect
Elecktro-Kraft and Jeppo
Kraft
ADDAX remote reading electric meters
7
AiMiR system Deployment
8
Low cost PLC Automatic/Remote Meter Reading, Home/Building
Automation, Switching and Lighting, HVAC Control
9
Turn-key solutions, services for the BPL/PLC
10
Advanced Automated Meter management (AMM) system solutions
North America
No
Telecom companies
1
2
Power companies
Open standards-based, secure wireless network
communications
Motorola
Motorola’s Harmony system
3
Advanced Metering System, Utility of the Future
Project
4
Intelligent communications infrastructure, smart
meters
5
Motorola
6
7
Wireless communication systems and services
Customer care and Billing, Pecan Street Project
Google
Smart Meters “Google Powermeter Project”
8
intelligent communication platform , home energy
management information and controls
9
Smart metering and Smart Grid engagements
Australia and New Zealand case
No
Telecom companies
Power companies
1
Turn-key metering, installation of
AMM
2
Network
communications
3
Advanced metering technology,
operational services
ASIA and South America
No
Telecom companies
1
2
infrastructure,
Power companies
AiMiR system Deployment
Motorola
Motorola MOSCAD system
Task I : SGMM and KUL
SGMM Architecture and Matrix
6 Levels x 8 Domains
Source: SEI, 2011, SGMM Model Definition: A framework for smart grid transformation
Smart Grid Compass: Survey
First 4 sections: Non-Specific
Questions on Surveyee
Sections 1 and 2 capture contact information
for the responding utility and the person
completing the survey.
Section 3 collects key data about the
responding organization.
Section 4 collects grid performance data that is
used to correlate the impact of increasing smart
grid maturity with overall grid performance.
8 Domain-Specific Questions
Sections 5-12 present multiple choice questions
organized by SGMM domain that address each
expected characteristic in the model.
Source: SEI, 2011, SGMM Compass Assessment Survey: A survey based assessment of smart grid maturity
KUL : Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium
Ageing Assets
Installation wave in European distribution systems in the 60s & 70s
-> Replacement wave with business-as-usual approach
-> Opportunity for new system architecture and operation
schemes
Benjamin Dupont, Student Member, IEEE, L. Meeus, and
R. Belmans, Fellow, IEEE, Measuring the “Smartness”
of the Electricity Grid, 978-1-4244-6840-9/101, IEEE,
2010,
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber
=5558673&isnumber=5558663&tag=1
Ronnie Belmans,



SmartGrids A Vision For Intelligent Electrical Grids Serving the Energy
User, CEER Smartgrids, June 29, 2009
SmartGrids A Vision For Intelligent Electrical Grids, Smart Grids Presentatie,
IEEE, 12 mei 2009
SmartGrids SRA 2035, Strategic Research Agenda Update of the SmartGrids
SRA 2007 for the needs by the year 2035, March 2012
 EU SmartGrid Vision
 Proper Measurement of ‘Smartness’ of SmartGrid will be an
essential part!
Both at the same department!!
JRC
EU SmartGrid Vision
But JRC has publications on
BCA!
Source: SmartGrids SRA 2035: Strategic Research Agenda, Update of the SmartGrids SRA
2007 for the needs by the year 2035, EU, March 2012
Characteristics of SG (EPRI, DOE, KUL)
Characteristics*
Dupont. et al .(KUL)
DOE
EPRI
Advanced Meters
Dynamic Pricing Signals
1
Enables informed
participation by
customers
Grid related signal
Load Managed
Customers
Customer potals
Energy Savings
Smart Appliances
Demand Side Management
Load Participation
Prosumer
Distributed Generation and Storage
2
Accommodates all
generation and storage
options
PHEVs
Load Factor
DER interconnection
3
Sell more than kWhs
**
New Energy Services
Regulatory Policy
Flexibility
Open Architecture/Stds
Customer Choice
Electric Vehichles
Support Mechanisms
Venture Capital
Plug-in Electric
Ancillary Service
Interoperability Maturity Level
Interoperability certification
Required Power Quality
4
Provide power quality for
the 21st Century
Power Quality
Microgrids
T&D Automation
5
Deferred gneration, project
Dynamic Line Rating
Optimise assets and
operate efficiently
Capacity Factors
Efficiencies
Advanced Sensors
information Exchange
6
Operate resiliently to
disturbances, attacks and
natural disasters***
Grid Response Load
DER penetration
T&D Reliability (Improvement in reliability and outage restoration)
Standards in telecommunication infrastructure
Cyber Security
Outage restoration improvement
Sub total
59
20
•*Each characteristics have similar name for each organization, the name of Characteristics are mainly based on Dupont et. Al.
•**EPRI and DOE use ‘Enables new products, services and markets’
•*** In EPRI, he has two Charateristics for #6, but we integrated those in one because of those similarity.
Source: EPRI, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, Final Report, January 2010
U.S. Department of Energy, Smart Grid System Project, January 2009
Dupont, et al, 2010, Measuring the “Smartness” of the Electricity Grid
46
Task II : BCA
BCA Comparison from Various Reports
BCA REPORTS
Benefits (EPRI 2010)
EPRI 2004
EPRI 2011
FERC 2006
FSC 2008
IEE 2011
X
X
Optimized Generator Operation
X
Deferred Generation Capacity Investments
Improved Asset Utilization
T&D Capital Savings
Economic
T&D O&M Savings
Reduced Ancillary Service Cost
X
X
Reduced Congestion Cost
X
X
Deferred Transmission Capacity Investments
X
X
X
X
Deferred Distribution Capacity Investments
X
X
X
X
Reduced Equipment Failures
X
X
Reduced T&D Equipment Maintenance Cost
X
X
Reduced T&D Operations Cost
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Reduced CO2 Emissions
X
X
Reduced SOx, NOx, and PM-10 Emissions
X
X
Theft Reduction
Reduced Electricity Theft
Energy Efficiency
Reduced Electricity Losses
X
X
Electricity Cost Savings
Reduced Electricity Cost
X
X
Reduced Sustained Outages
X
X
Reduced Major Outages
X
Reduced Restoration Cost
X
Reduced Momentary Outages
Reduced Sags and Swells
Reliability
X
X
Reduced Meter Reading Cost
Power Interruptions
X
X
Power Quality
Environmental
X
X
Reduced Oil Usage (not monetized)
Security
X
Air Emissions
Energy Security
Reduced Wide-scale Blackouts
X
X
Source:
EPRI_2004
Power Delivery System of The Future: A Preliminary Estimate of Costs and Benefits (EPRI 1011001)
EPRI_2010
Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects (EPRI 1020342)
EPRI_2011a
Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid: A Preliminary Estimate of the Investment Requirements and the Resultant Benefits of a Fully Functioning Smart Grid (EPRI 1022519)
FERC_2006
Assessment of Demand Response & Advanced Metering (AD-06-2-000)
FSC_2008
Benefit-Cost Analysis of Advanced Metering and Time Based Pricing
IEE_2011
The Costs and Benefits of Smart Meters for Residential Customers
국내 BCA 사례 (한국전력, 2011.7)
고객측면의 BCA 결과
Utilities 측면의 BCA 결과
Source: AMI 구축과 RTP 시행에 따른 경제성 분석, 기획본부, 경영연구소, 한국전력, 2011.7
Previous Researches
Source: EPRI 1020342, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, January 2010
Other BCA Researches
FSC, 2007, Benefit-Cost Analysis for Advanced Metering and Time-Based Pricing, Stephen S. George, Michael Wiebe, Workshop, Freeman Sullivan & Co.,
November 13, 2007 - (Short, ppt)
FSC, 2008, Benefit-Cost Analysis for Advanced Metering and Time-Based Pricing, Stephen S. George, Josh Bode, Michael Wiebe, Freeman Sullivan & Co., Jan.,
2008 - (Full Document)
ESC, 2002a, Installing Interval Meters for Electricity Customers – Costs and Benefits - Position Paper, November 2002
ESC, 2002b, Installing Interval Meters for Electricity Customers – Costs and Benefits - Position Paper, November 2002, pp. 79-87
ESC, 2002c, Installing Interval Meters for Electricity Customers – Costs and Benefits - Position Paper, November 2002, pp 62-66
ESC, 2002d, Installing Interval Meters for Electricity Customers – Costs and Benefits - Position Paper, November 2002, pp.62-66
ESC, 2002e, Installing Interval Meters for Electricity Customers – Costs and Benefits - Position Paper, November 2002, pg. 85
CRA and Impaq Consulting, 2005, Advanced Interval Meter Communications Study, Draft Report, 23 December 2005, pg. 60.
Institute for Electric Efficiency, 2010, “ Utility Scale Smart Meter Deployment, Plans and Proposal (September, 2010)
IEE, 2011, The Costs and Benefits of Smart Meters for Residential Customers, IEE Whitepaper, Institute for Electric Efficiency July 2011
Greentech Media report, 2011, “ Smart Grid HAN Strategy Report 2011: Technologies, Market Forecast, and Leading Players, “2011
EPRI, 2004, “Power Delivery System of the Future: A Preliminary Estimate of Costs and Benefits,” Palo Alto, CA: 1011001.
EPRI, 2008, “Characterizing and Quantifying the Societal Benefits Attributable to Smart Metering Investments,” Palo Alto, CA: 1017006.
EPRI, 2008, “The Green Grid: Energy Savings and Carbon Emissions Reductions Enabled by a Smart Grid,” Palo Alto, CA: 1016905.
EPRI, 2010, “Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects,” Palo Alto, CA: 1020342.
EPRI, 2011, “Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid: A Preliminary Estimate of the Investment Requirements and the Resultant Benefits of a Fully
Functioning Smart Grid,” Palo Alto, CA: 1022519.
The Brattle Group , 2008, “Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment Challenge 2010- 2030,” prepared by The Brattle Group for The Edison
Foundation, November 2008.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC), 2006, Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering, Staff Report, February 2006
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC),2008, Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering, Staff Report, December 2008
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC), 2009, A National Assessment of Demand Response Potential, Staff Report, June 2009
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC), 2010, National Action Plan on Demand Response, Docket No. AD09-10, June 17, 2010
JRC, 2012, Guidelines for conducting a cost-benefit analysis of Smart Grid projects
Modern Grid Initiative, http://www.netl.doe.gov/moderngrid.
Task III : JRC & DOE, EPRI
EPRI: The Concept of Benefit
Definition: an impact (of a Smart Grid project)
that has value to a firm, a household, or society in
general.
Types: Four fundamental categories of benefits




Economic – reduced costs, or increased production at
the same cost, that result from improved utility system
efficiency and asset utilization
Reliability and Power Quality – reduction in
interruptions and power quality events
Environmental – reduced impacts of climate change and
effects on human health and ecosystems due to pollution
Security and Safety – improved energy security (i.e.,
reduced oil dependence); increased cyber security; and
reductions in injuries, loss of life and property damage
Perspectives: Three basic groups of beneficiaries



Utilities are the suppliers of power and include electric
utilities that generate power as well as the transmission
and the load serving entities that deliver it (and
integrated utilities that do all three)
Customers are the end-users or consumers of electricity
Society in general is the recipient of externalities of the
Smart Grid – effects on the public or society at large –
which can be either positive or negative in nature.
Precision: represents the level of
precision in the estimated magnitudes of
these benefits and costs. A reasonable way
of characterizing the general level of
precision is to use broad categories such
as:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Modest level of uncertainty in quantitative
estimates and/or in monetization (the
project might specify percentile values)
Significant uncertainty in quantitative
estimates and/or in how to monetize
Highly uncertain
Cannot be quantified
Source: EPRI 1020342, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, January 2010
Map Functions to Benefits (EPRI)
Utility
Consumer
Utility
Society
Source: EPRI 1020342, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, January 2010
Ten-Step Approach for Cost-Benefit Analysis (EPRI)
Characterize the Project
• 1 Project elements: Review the project’s technologies/elements and goals
• 2 Functions: Identify the Smart Grid functions which each project element could provide
• 3 Characteristics: Assess the Smart Grid Principal Characteristics that are reflected in the project
Estimate Benefits
• 4 Benefits: Map each function onto a standardized set of benefit categories
• 5 Baseline: Define the project baseline and how it is to be estimated
• 6 Data: Identify and obtain the data needed to estimate the baseline and to calculate each benefit
• 7 Quantified Benefits: Calculate quantitative estimates of the benefits
• 8 Monetized Benefits: Use economic conversion factors to estimate the benefits’ monetary value
Compare Costs to Benefits
• 9 Costs: Estimate the relevant costs
• 10 Cost-Benefit: Compare costs to benefits
Source: EPRI 1020342, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, January 2010
JRC Application of BCA (InovGrid)
Step 1: Identify Project
and Its Technologies Step 2 Identify Functionalities
Step 3 Map each
functionality to standardized
benefit
Source: JRC, 2012, Guidelines for conducting a cost-benefit analysis of Smart Grid projects
Step 4-5: Quantify
Benefit
Characterization Module Screenshots (Example: Phase I)
40
INITIAL APPROACH TO QUANTIFY AND MONETIZE BENEFITS
Table C-2
In general,
Benefit = Baseline - Project
Source: EPRI 1020342, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, January 2010
Benefit Calculation Input Data
Baseline ~2016, Project 2012-2016
Optional Inputs: Alternative Formula of Benefit Calculation (usually more detailed) can be conducted at the right hand corner of new
row of data input. Default: Default Input for Benefit Calculation
Cost Representation (Too Simple Process!)
1. Yearly Cost
 Input: the capital cost for each year along the project year
2. Amortized Cost
 Input: Initial and final year of spending, Total capital cost, and
Interest rate
 Yearly amortized cost is calculated
Amortized Cost
Yearly Cost
Task I,II,III and Comparison and Proposition
Relationships Among the Tasks
BCA-Benefit Cost Analysis
TASK II
JRC
EPRI Guideline
BCA
EU SmartGrid
Enhancement
EPRI
DOE
SGCT
Smartness
Performance
Mesurement
Smartness, Maturity
TASK I
Tool Kit Development
TASK III
SEI
SGMM
Other Tool Kit Development Experiences of EML
Wind (REVAP v0.9) & PV
Solar - REVAP v0.9
49
KNOC(Korea National Oil Comapany)