Transcript Land use

Christchurch Transportation Planning
Post Feb 2011 Earthquake
Presented by Andrew Metherell
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Contents
 Introduction
 Land Use
 Available Data
 Estimating Changes
 Modelling
 The CTM
 Application and Results
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Where is Christchurch?
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Christchurch Statistics
 Population:
 Households:
 Total Area:
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415,000
150,000
1,425 km2
The Earthquakes
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~1,200 road surface defects
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>50,000 road surface defects
The Effects
 Roads closed, CBD shut
 Households, business, schools
and shops re-located
 Traffic increases on key routes
 Increased travel time
 Reduced trip reliability
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The Responses
 “Get Christchurch Moving” – Emergency Response
 “Keep Christchurch Moving”
 Review of Forward Capital Works Programme
 Utilise Christchurch Transportation Model (CTM)
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The Model





Land use based, various forecast years
Person-based travel
Strategic network representation
Wide geographic area
Daily travel calculations
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Christchurch Transportation Model
Land Use Data
Policy Assumptions
Zonal Trip Ends
Generation
Modal Choice
Trip Distribution
Route Choice
(Assignment)
Results
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Network Data
Modelling Plan
 Immediate effects covered by emergency response
 6 month post EQ (2011)
 Compare pre and post EQ travel demand changes
 Confirm observed change in travel patterns
 5 years hence, 2016 various rates of recovery to CBD
 Identify recovery travel demand changes
 Test forward work programme effects
 Long term, 2026 and 2041, assume full recovery (for now)
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Land Use – Available Data
 Post Redirections
 Residential “stickers” (red/yellow/green)
 Local knowledge
 Transport planners
 Real estate experts
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Household Postal Redirections
•
•
FROM
TO
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 As of 12 April 2011
 64% redirects
remain with City
Net Postal Redirections
 3,700 redirects
from (red)
 2,400 redirects to
(green)
 Excludes PO
boxes
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“Stickers”/Placards
 What do the three colours mean?
 RED – Do not enter a red placarded building
because it is unsafe
 YELLOW – Buildings suitable for restricted access
until issues are resolved
 GREEN – Building accessed and no structural
hazards apparent
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Residential “Sticker” Status
 Red or yellow stickers
 5,750 households “lost”
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Land Use – Estimating Changes
 Determine overall net loss (pop/HHs)
 Determine geographic distribution
 Reductions
 But increases in some areas
 With CBD closed, where will business (& jobs)
be?
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Net Loss – Population / HHs
 Population loss
 10,000 Christchurch
 Estimate household
reduction from
population (2.6 ppl/hh)
 3,800 less households
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Geographic Distribution
 Household loss areas
 Residential sticker status
 Postal redirection
 Vacant residential land
 Where will people move to?
 Zoned “vacant” residential land
 Some in damaged areas
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CBD Job Loss
 Main job loss in CBD
 Unemployment likely
to rise (so fewer jobs
overall)
 Pre-quake 55,900
 Post-quake 30,900
CBD Fringe
-50%*
Pre=8,100
Post=4,900
CBD Outer
-10%
Pre=25,100
Post=24,400
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Job changes around the city
AIRPORT
CBD
PORT
Existing Major Business Areas
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Roads of National Significance
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Modelling – Scenarios Evaluated
2011
Pre
LAND USE
2011
Post
2016 Onwards
Initial RoNS
Full RoNS
Pre
Post
Post
2016
Pre
2026
Pre
2041
Pre
4 Stage Model Run
Assignment only, fixed demands
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Forecast Post-Quake Changes
 2011 Daily Demand
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INCREASE
DECREASE
Future Network Implementation – Initial
RoNS
 2016 Daily Demand
Change with Initial
Road of National
Significance (CSM1
and Western
Corridor)
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INCREASE
DECREASE
Initial RoNS – Congestion Relief
Land use: 2016 Post-Quake
Network: 2011 Post-Quake
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Land use: 2016 Post-Quake
Network: 2011 Initial RoNS
Outcomes
 CTM useful in post earthquake planning
 Traffic forecasts consistent with post quake
counts
 Able to demonstrate initial RoNs required
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Acknowledgements
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Questions?
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