Transcript future vision

The new local paradigm
(about developing knowledge and
consciousness locally – with an outlook
on the tasks of European states)
Csaba Varga
researcher of social theory,
metaphilosopher,
h. academic reader
President of Institute for Strategic
Research
Introduction
The Hungarian and Central-European
breakages, pains and growing hunger
for future inspire me. (strong inner and
outer motivations)
Instead of helplessness, lack of ideas and
affected saunter in the present – I choose to
understand the new world, and to declare a
new program
I am sociologist by qualification, a
philosopher by inner makeup, i have
been leading a Hungarian R+D institute
for one and a half decade.
We have developed an overall transdisciplinary
theory (metaphilosophy), and simultaneously
have been initiating and leading local
developmental model experiments.
What kind of changes are there?
„new table”
– a new concept of
matter
„new Milky Way” – a new view of Cosmos
„new God”
– new view of god
„new Mrs Smith” – new view of man
„new degree”
– new view of
knowledge
„new factory”
– a new view of
economy
„new job”
– new view of labor
„new state”
– a new view of state
„new village”
– a new view of society
„new realization” – new view of
consciousness
„new horizon”
– a new vision of the
future
Hungarian development models
The Institute for Strategic Research that i
represent has made complex, innovative,
knowledge society age strategies: four
regional, nine county area and nearly twenty
for small regions. Between 1999 and the end
of 2005
A pilot project: Aba village (4500 occupants)
and the small region of Sárvíz (11 townships)
Projects (mayors’ hunger strike, digital city
and small region strategy, Door to the south
project, secondary education of arts,
intelligent „residental area”, local social
contract and civil magistrate, etc.)
Contents →
Commencing theorems
Three theoretical theorems
The Hungarian „future vision”
New local paradigm
Knowledge- and/or consciousness
developing society
Local development models
If we have the courage…
Message
Hungarian future vision, a
postscript
Commencing theorems
↻
Future - is it a secret?
We are not any more restricted to
interpret the future (only) on the
grounds of normal science.
There is not only one future, but more
(parallel) futures, as there are more
present today
Future is a network of alternatives, not
necessarily of those scenarios we know
today.
Future is going on not merely on the
rigid tracks of past and present, but it
is a creation of our consciousness at
least 50%.
Future - is it a secret?(2)
The future is (possibly) determined,
but free will was counted in as well.
Future can not be seen through
colonialist view any more, it can only be
post colonialist
The future we see today is differs in
much more than anytime before.
Limit to the future is – more than the
external conditions – our limited
knowledge
Future depends on, which future visions
individuals and communities „dream”
or do not dream.
New planning technology (2005)
In a European state the complex society
and knowledge structure makes it
impossible to have only one future vision
Without global and local future visions
planning is impossible
For the time being nor political elite, nor
knowledge elite, nor civil elites are not
really capable to plan due to lack of
worked out future visions
Having done inter-disciplinary and vision
providing research and strategy analysis
are essential when planning for the
future.
The social conflicts of today
The ecology poor - ecology rich
(integrated ecological assets
distribution)
Affluent poor - affluent rich (differences
in integrated social capital)
Power-poor – power rich (integrated
power capital distribution)
Media-poor - media-rich (differences in
integrated media-assets, prestigecapital)
New social gaps at the beginning- in
the middle of the XXI Century
1. Technology poor – technology rich
2. Information poor – information
rich
3. Knowledge poor – Knowledge rich
(culture poor - culture rich)
4. Consciousness poor consciousness-rich
5. God experience poor – God
experience rich
Three theoretical theorem
New knowledge and new theory of
knowledge
New future and new future vision
New global and local world
↻
New knowledge and new
theory of knowledge
↻
New assumptions
The new knowledge is radically different
from what was in the last 300-400
years.
Science develops from normal science to
post science.
Science, religion and art will be one
again
Functions of knowledge have widened
substantially (becomes personal and
social assets)
The information/knowledge can be
exchanged to money/power/prestige
and vice versa
New knowledge about the future and the
paths leading to them
Dilemmas around knowledge
When the new knowledge and thinking
reaches the people of the street, will the
world be a better place from it?
If professional and non professional
knowledge provider will have equal
opportunity, will the institution of the stateuniversity institution of knowledge break up?
If all knowledge becomes available digitally
(through media), how knowledge processing
and interpreting will be possible?
If four hour work of 20-30% of the total
working age population will be sufficient, will
people be ready to use the excess time,
energy for gaining knowledge?
Quantum research findings
The observer and the observed are not
separable from each other
Matter shows both wave and particle
behavior
Likely events of Quantum processes:
probability waves (state vectors) or
probability networks (EWG-model)
Super space theory (we live in different,
parallel worlds) - John A. Wheeler-theory
Actions and effects at a distance
Our choice: many universes or one one
universe with sort of a designer (God)?
Theory of nonlocal hidden variables, even
the implicate order (Bohm-theory)
New phenomena on the knowledge
market
We are flooded with products of scientific
knowledge and popular culture to an extent
never seen before
Personal home pages – may convey
anything to anybody
Family and small community self-expression
becomes possible
Instead of the real world a anti world can be
produced by means of the Internet as media
Language barriers are disappearing with
translation software developments
The individual independently from the state
and economical help can enter the global
society and culture
Dominant types of capital
Farmer society
Handcraft society
Industrial society
State capitalism
(socialism)
Money capitalism
Postindustrial
society
Information society
Knowledge society
Consciousness
society
Universal capital
Creative capital
(+material capital)
Material capital
Power capital
(connection capital)
Money capital
Applied intellectual
capital
Information capital
(+ money capital)
Knowledge capital
Consciousness
capital
Information and knowledge society
Information society: society of
transmitting signs with man made
tools, a potential knowledge-society;
(starting hypotheses of the theory
about present) only information
becomes personal-collective capital
Knowledge society: society of
interpreted knowledge systems,
potential knowledge symbol society
that with knowledge and - partly –
with knowledge symbol reconstructs
society (starting hypotheses of the
theory about near-future); knowledge
becomes personal and social capital
Knowledge age arriving
Before Knowledge centered world model
- In the midst of Global Information Society
- Before consciousness-society
The quantitative and most of all qualitative
advancement of knowledge – New Science /New
Theory is born
Within thirty-fifty years universal knowledge and
knowledge utilization of new grade is to expect
Knowledge becomes personal asset
- The individual understands and applies New
Knowledge
Knowledge becomes society asset
- Knowledge society is born
New future and new future
vision
New global and local world
↻
New assumptions
The universal-global world is of glob-local
nature, however also culture plays a
determining role
The universal-global future vision faces both
dangers and opportunities we never thought
of
The universal-global processes have effects
on the future chances of a small European
country to an extent never expected
Whatever the future will be like in the next
25 years, it will be fundamentally different
„reality” than the „province” present
The future of any country can only be
interpreted inside a complex global view of
the future.
Dilemmas – around the future
Supposed we knew (roughly) what future
brings, and what kind of future we want (till
2020), how and to what degree do the
European countries development plans
corresponds to it?
If we have no idea of our future
whatsoever, nor do we know what we want
as a future, what will we build our overall
national development conceptions on being
aware of the lack of future visions
If we do know but little about the future, if
there is not enough time for thorough
preparations, if even the present
conceptional complexity is too much for
political elite; what can we do?
The economy of today
In developed parts of Europe Industrial
Age is not an alternative any more, but
still not a global failure.
The knowledge age and its economy is
an alternative, however, it is not a global
practice, not even in Europe.
The knowledge based economy basically
could be a society-centered economy
(economy returns to society?)
Achievement should not be measured in
(or only in) GDP, but in its individual,
collective and intellectual usefulness
The New World until 2020 (1)
Human knowledge get six times more in
quantity – what does it bring?
Post-normal science (New View of Reality, New
View of Consciousness, New View of Man)
come into being, but will it be utilized?
At least three-four subsequent rapid technology
revolution is to come – changes are
unpredictable
The global and Continental societies handle
universal ecological and social crises only
partially Artificial intelligence can play an
exceptional role in digital state, consciousness
development, scientific research etc.
The New World until 2020 (2)
We neither expect the inner disintegration of
Europe nor Europe winning the competition
of continents
In European Union is neocapitalism to linger
or possibly the first step of knowledge- and
consciousness society really will be reached.
For successfully accomplishing daily tasks
university degree and a new creative
behavior is needed.
The dwellers of our planet possibly reach the
new consciousness states.
Man or an intelligent „robot” is going to arrive
at Mars and further…
The European man rediscovers its
transcendency
The new cyber space alternatives
(1) New, interactive, global e-government, estate to steer human society
(2) Global civil society collective
administration and self arrangement
(3) With help of new info communication
networks and services creating „collective
intelligence”
(4) Corresponding to the empowerment theory
world citizens participate in the communication
dynamically and supervise the media and the
state
(5) As self organizing becomes widespread
local participants create a new civil society
network that is both global and national local.
The UNESCO programme advancing: different
combinations of the five alternatives may
evolve.
New global and local world
the new world model
↻
New assumptions
Old industrial (fordist, further postfordist)
world model and its way of thinking (normalscience) has come to an end
One of the new (information society) world
model is not sufficient alone – it is a postinformation age
Sustainable development world model alone –
so it seems - is not sustainable
Is Europe desperately experimenting to
integrate and revive the existing models?
(See: i2010 strategy)
However modernization models are
undergoing a paradigm shift, and postmodernization models have arrived.
Continental dilemmas
Assuming that in the years of 10s the
knowledge-centered world model gets
dominant, is it acceptable that a European
Country in its strategy plan focuses not on
knowledge ”production” and knowledge
use?
If the European Union neither by 2010 nor
by 2015 will not be or only partly will be
sustainable and innovative knowledge
centered continent, then how will Hungary
or another European country react to this
overwhelming delay?
If in the 10’s another new dominant
world model is to expect, how can that be
explored and how can we be prepared?
New globalization
The new concept of the new
globalization
Globalization and localization
simultaneously (glocalization)
Globalization functionality
substantiality
(standardization)
Quantitative and qualitative
globalization
First half of the 21. century: a globlocal world
The nation in the information age
New intermediary role between the
global and local world
The method is not ruling, but not
absolute self surrender
Nation is an issue as a knowledge
space and not as a state
To preserve a nation is possible not as
a state, but as a knowledge/culturenation
The key requirement for a nation to
survive is the digitalizing all national
value/knowledge/science.
Dominant driving forces
Farmer society
Handcraft society
Industrial society
State capitalism
(socialism)
Money capitalism
Postindustrial
society
Information society
Knowledge society
Consciousness
society
Nature and God
Material and
beauty
Money and
innovation
Material and power
Money prestige
Technology and
creativity
Information
and technology
Knowledge
Consciousness
state
Models of modernization
Traditional models of modernizations
Resource-controlled
Investment-controlled
Innovation-centered
Information-based
etc.
Post-modernization models (knowledge
age? Quantum age?)
knowledge-centered
New model of democracy
Consciousness-controlled
Artificial intelligence controlled
Integrated new models
etc.
Modernization crisis expected
date: 2008-2009
At the end of the Prodi-Barroso era it is
likely to become clear: Europe is still
behind
The main cause of trouble is not the
personality or preparedness of
politicians
The cause of failure: the normal science
rational-positivist view of present/future
does not offer fit grounds for making up
leeway.
Additional symptom of the crises: the
alternative movements majority has no
better solution either
New local paradigm
↻
New assumptions
Local apathy and powerlessness is not to
linger for decades in Europe
In the universal-global competition Europe
with its plus in knowledge and culture has
good chances
One tool to find ourselves ( to fall into line as
well) is to reorganize and re-think the
European localities.
The time of local model experiments has
arrived
The two evident source of local developments
is: municipality and local civil society
However both must be filled with knowledge
and new consciousness – preferably with own
will
Dilemmas around locality
Are the majority of localities able to cut
themselves adrift from global field?
Is local autonomy basically depends on
financial development sources or/and
used knowledge?
Or neither of the two, but another third
one is determining local innovation and
creativity?
Is the government or/and municipality the
key factor to strengthening localities?
Or neither of the two, but the civil society
and the capable knowledge citizen?
New localization theories
The concept of localization –
subordinating locality
Localization scenes: region, county,
small region, places (town and
village)
The global world basic unit and
counter balance (autonomyparadigm)
The first stage of new society
Virtual locality – quality locality?
Localization and new communities,
new congregations
Locality structure
Upper world of life (region, county)
Lower world of life
Surrounding world (small region,
places)
World at hand (family, individual)
Interiorized world of life (a person’s
Superego)
Globalization effects – the reactions of
localization
The information and knowledge access
role in place conformation
Knowledge- and/or
consciousness developing
society
↻
Suppositions
Until 2020 the only optimal future choice is
the new (knowledge- and also partly
consciousness-development centered)
alternative
Knowledge development incentive should
be first priority already today. (The R+D in
wider sense)
Hungary and every European country
remains a compound alternative country
within the next ten years – there is no one
good solution
The planning and grounding of state
institutions for consciousness research and
development should begin (preparations)
Dilemmas – time
If the goals of information society are
too far reaching and too complicated for
many yet, is it premature for the
dominant political elite ?
Whether the current European state
strategies priorities (investment in
humans, economy, environment), the
programs of the nineties, may become
obsolote?
If Europe and all its states are
preparing not to the alternatives of the
10s; Hungary, for instance, will be
stagnating or stay more behind?
Consciousness developing society model
To accept and apply personal and community
knowledge is the matter of state of mind and
consciousness development
The social cohesion, social cooperation is a
question of the quality of consciousness as well
Strengthening of European, national and local
identity depends first of all on individual mind
and consciousness
Personal and community health is determined
basically by purposeful developing of
consciousness/self consciousness
Therefore we need a society (and society
communication) model that promotes
development/self development of
consciousness
Local development models
↻
Knowledge regions,
intelligent regions
Regional realization of information or
knowledge society programmes, the
knowledge based economy and
society ordered, concentrated
establishment in given counties, or
regions, in other words, the intensive
creation of intelligent life conditions,
e-commerce getting dominant,
changeover to digital public
administration and the value
preserver and value producer content
providing becoming common.
Intelligent small region
If an information society region is an
intelligent bridge, than the intelligent
small region is a creative center of
activity
It is the life world changing and
locality affirmative combination of
global compulsory and local unique
factors
The birth pace of the intelligent life
world
An ongoing (knowledge based) reorganization of local society, that is,
the local road to knowledge society
What constitutes an intelligent region?
1. The realization of individual and community
access (broadband, fast) fully
2. The continuous adaptation of technology
revolution achievements.
3. Knowledge based economy, the knowledge
market maturation and the R+D coming to
the front
4. Giving priority to the digital content industry
and its development – the knew knowledge
universalization
5. Realization of the local knowledge centered
civil society and cohesion
6. The successful handling of social and
information inequalities
What constitutes an intelligent region?
7. Virtual self-government in regions and in
places
8. The transformation of lower and
intermediate levels of public administration,
e-government
9. Local e-democracy, e-plebiscite
10. The regional university knowledge centers
gaining strength and lifelong learning
becomes a reality
11. The growth of regional creation and
application of new knowledge
What constitutes an intelligent region?
12. Preserving local culture and its presentation
on global level
13. The regional political-economical elite
personal preparation to the new era
14. The knowledge citizen lifestyle and life
quality being common
15. A regions/places successful coming into
line and taking part in the continental space
competition
16. The churches, civil organizations and their
services are changing in knowledge society
Hungarian local examples
Szentlőrinc small region (one town and 19
village), disadvantageous situation, there is
no advanced industry, etc. New elements: 1.
New methodology, 2. Programmes for IT,
information and information society, 3. Nine
public services, 4. Institute developments, 5.
Decision makers training, 6. Lobby-day, etc.
The Garden of Eden in Zselic (22 000 hectare
of nature conservation area. New projects:
1. Future city as a greenfield investment, 2.
A tourist theme park as well, 3. Sacral
„townvillage”-structure, 4. 12 „healingcentre” for body, soul and mind (etc.) in the
future city,5. E-tourism center, etc.
Sample developments of new types?
Introducing technologies that replace humans
substitutes humans (for instance bioinformatics)
Making common the use of technologies
understanding and applying the energies of
universes
Personal/collective (and self developing)
consciousness becomes the most important drive
of economical-social development
Digital „government/self-government” with
the high level application of artificial
intelligence
(Individual and community) Developments taking
advantage of spiritual resources
If we have the courage…
↻
We could realize again
Money is not the solution
Power is utterly incapable
Politics is no more in control of the
processes
Nature should not be damaged more
The state does not solve the problems
We may leave the Zeitgeist behind as well
The individual is not defenseless
Poverty is not a threat
Man can understand much-much more
Social cooperation is possible
God loves man
THE WORLD IS OURS
Message
(but do not take my word for
it)
↻
Developments of the Quantum-era
After the run-down of the modernization models
of today a quick „leap” to quantum (postmodernization, post-information) stage may
come
After all, In Europe a general development model
shift may begin and a new thinking trolls may
develop
If it does not happen for any reason or late; the
technical-technological shifts alone may have
shocking effects
The development-research subvention could be at
least six to eight -instead of three- % of national
income
The local regions – joined with the intelligent civil
society – can revolutionize the global world
Thank you for your attention!
Varga Csaba
www.vargacsaba.hu
www.strategiakutato.hu
www.inco.hu
www.evilagonline.hu
www.metatheory.info
The Hungarian „future vision”
(postscript)
↻
Suppositions
The nature of globalization-localization is not well
known (but prejudiced) in our country, for this
reason it is mostly opposed, and partly because of
it we have no vision of the future of global world
either
The future vision of Hungary (and/or the
Hungarian nation) is not worked out , as so many
times in the last 150 years; Future is more a case
of anxiety, bereft of hope, than of positive
suspense
In Hungarian region unique autonomic future
visions are not born, at the same time in some
smaller region they have an astoundingly long
view and act with perspective
Dilemmas
If presently there is no overall Ha
Hungarian (Hungarian related) future
vision and national strategy, keeping this
lack in mind, the new national
development plan necessarily is coming
into life in vacuum without national
consensus?
If the political parties are capable of
agreement only in slogans and in a semi
manner, next to the political show-deals
what further (and more substantive)
conceptional and project-producing steps
are possible in the small amount of time
left?
Possible scenarios
(mostly based on normal-science yet)
Universal scenarios (at least
four basic versions)
Global scenarios (at least three
– in 23 different version)
National scenarios (ten
alternatives and five scenarios)
Local scenarios at home (five
alternative – several scenarios)
Alternatives from Hungary
(made in 1998-2000)
Black (world end)
alternative
Dark grey (breakdown)
alternative
Light grey (seesaw)
alternative
Blue (knowledge
society) alternative
White (unity creating,
of new consciousness)
alternative
According to
normal-science’s
view of present
and future
----------------Based on the
new paradigms
of post-normal
science
What are the choices of Hungary?
Wily-nilly accepts the present future vision of the
European Union and adjust its new national
development plan accordingly
Remains in the European fold and only builds in
hided new ( and different) alteration possibilities
only. (like at operational level)
Also prepares for not having other possibility
then a paradigm shift at the end of the Barrosoera (2009-2010?)
Consciously and openly includes the projects
meeting the demands of the 10’s and 20’s in the
national development plan of the new (dating
from 2007) period.