Transcript Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2004

Voter Turnout
POLS 125: Political Parties & Elections
“A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for
democracy, but won't cross the street to vote in a
national election.”
— Bill Vaughan
The Vanishing Voter
Patterson calls declining voter turnout “the longest
sustained downturn in American history.” What
factors have caused it?
Generational replacement
Lack of competitive elections
Weakening party loyalty
Unsavory campaigns
Negative news
This is all the more disturbing because
turnout should have increased…
Increasing educational attainment
Removal of poll taxes and literacy tests
Simplified registration procedures
Voter Turnout in 2008
In November 2008, 131 million votes were cast for
president.
Is that number high or low?
It depends on how
turnout is measured…
How Should We Measure Turnout?
Turnout statistics can use any of three denominators:
The voting-age population (VAP) includes non-citizens
and felons who are ineligible to vote, and excludes
expatriate citizens who could legally vote overseas. VAP
estimates provide the lowest turnout levels because they
underestimate actual turnout.
The voting-eligible population (VEP) starts with the
voting-age population, then subtracts disenfranchised
felons and non-citizens, and adds citizens from
overseas. VEP estimates of voting turnout are higher
than VAP estimates.
The number of registered voters includes only those
legally registered to vote. This provides the highest rate
of voter turnout.
How Should We Measure Turnout?
VAP
131 million votes cast
= 57% voter turnout
231 million voting age citizens
VEP
REG
131 million votes cast
= 62% voter turnout
213 million voting eligible citizens
131 million votes cast
= 76% voter turnout
172 million registered voters
Fraud?
If voter turnout is low,
compared to what?
Compared to other countries
Compared to historic rates of voter
turnout in the United States
Voter Turnout in the United States
Compared to Other Countries
Percent of voting age population (VAP), all elections since 1945
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Source: International IDEA, http://www.idea.int/vt/survey/
USA
Switzerland
Luxembourg
France
United Kingdom
Ireland
Spain
Finland
Norway
Israel
* Greece
Germany
Portugal
Sweden
Denmark
* Australia
Netherlands
* Belgium
Austria
Iceland
0
* Italy
10
0
1828
1832
1836
1840
1844
1848
1852
1856
1860
1864
1868
1872
1876
1880
1884
1888
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Voter Turnout in Presidential
Elections, 1828-2008
Perc ent of v oting eligible population (VEP)
100
80
60
40
20
Voter Turnout in Presidential
Elections, 1828-2008
Perc ent of v oting eligible population (VEP)
80
The 26th
Amendment
grants 18-20
year olds the
right to vote
70
60
The 19th
Amendment
grants women
the right to vote
1828
1832
1836
1840
1844
1848
1852
1856
1860
1864
1868
1872
1876
1880
1884
1888
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
50
Voter Turnout in Presidential
Elections, 1828-2008
Perc ent of v oting eligible population (VEP)
65
60
55
50
45
40
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
How Should We Measure Turnout?
Increasing Voter Turnout
OPTION #1: Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate
measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.
OPTION #2: Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we
don’t want uneducated, uninformed people voting
anyway.
OPTION #3: Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have
similar policy preferences, so it makes little difference
OPTION #4: Do something!
Voting by mail
Voting early
Internet voting
Election day registration
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?
Should we prefer a:
Smaller, more highly educated, less
representative electorate?
Larger, less well educated, more
representative electorate?
Increasing Voter Turnout
OPTION #1: Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate
measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.
OPTION #2: Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we
don’t want uneducated, uninformed people voting
anyway.
OPTION #3: Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have
similar policy preferences, so it makes little difference
OPTION #4: Do something!
Voting by mail
Voting early
Internet voting
Election day registration
Why Don’t People Vote?
Institutional context
Motor-Voter
Compulsory voting
Election Day registration
Voting by mail
Internet voting
Motivational strategies
Personal canvassing
Social pressure
Enduring personal traits and
psychological orientations
Socialization through programs such as Kids Voting USA
How Does Motor-Voter Work?
Widely known as Motor-Voter, the National Voter Registration Act of 1993
is designed to encourage voter registration and to remove discriminatory
and unfair obstacles to voter registration.
As of January 1, 1995, the law requires states to register voters for federal
elections in three specific ways, in addition to any other procedures they
use currently for registering voters:
1. Simultaneous application for driver’s license and voter registration
2. Mail application for voter registration
3. Application in person at certain government agencies, including public
assistance offices and agencies that provided services to people with
disabilities
The Problem with Motor-Voter
Voter
Registration
Voter
Turnout
Motivation
and/or interest
in politics
Why Don’t People Vote?
Institutional context
Motor-Voter
Compulsory voting
Election Day registration
Voting by mail
Internet voting
Motivational strategies
Personal canvassing
Social pressure
Enduring personal traits and
psychological orientations
Socialization through programs such as Kids Voting USA
Vote Mobilization
Efforts to increase voter turnout are often called “Get-Out-the-Vote”
drives, or GOTV.
Obama goes door-to-door in Iowa
DES MOINES, Iowa - Democrat knocked on doors in the Iowa capital
Saturday talking up his opposition to the war in Iraq. At one stop, Obama got a
warm welcome from a woman who said the visit might persuade her to attend
the Democratic presidential caucus in January, "I'm flabbergasted that he's here
knocking on my neighborhood door," Jody Degard told reporters after the visit
from the Illinois senator.
Voter Turnout as a Political
Strategy
With narrow
margins of
victory, and an
electorate split
evenly down
the middle,
political parties
increasingly
battle over
voter turnout.
Vote Suppression
Ballot and machine shortages on
Election Day in selected precincts.
Delays in sending absentee ballots.
Vote challenges.
Disqualification of provisional
ballots.
Purges of voter registration lists
(e.g., voter caging).
Misdirection of voters to polling
places.
Negative advertising designed to
undermine morale.
Has Motor-Voter Increased Ballot Fraud?
Nashawna Prude, 9, with a family photo that includes her
grandmother, Kimberly, second from left, jailed for more than
a year for voter fraud.
Kimberly Prude was convicted of voting while on probation,
an offense that she attributes to confusion over eligibility.
The Debate over Photo IDs
“It's outrageous to hear my colleagues sit there and say that the Republican
Party is embarking on a move to suppress the vote of ethnic minorities
throughout the country. That is blatantly false. I am not going to sit here and by
my silence give any credence to that assertion. That's ridiculous."
—Rep. John Doolittle (R-CA)