Transcript HDM-4 - sanral
SANRAL
ANNUAL DOMESTIC ROADSHOW - October 2011
#441439v1 1
The SANRAL mandate
• • • • Established in April 1998 by an Act of Parliament as an independent operating company to operate South Africa’s national road network Established in terms of the National Roads Act of 1998 as a public company with a share capital within the requirements of the South African Companies Act Governed by a board of directors (8 members) of whom 7 must be appointed by the Minister of Transport Eighth member of the board is the CEO by virtue of office • Responsible for strategic planning with regard to South African national road system • Finance, plan, construct, provide, operate and maintain roads in neighbouring countries upon request from the Minister of Transport and in agreement with the respective countries • Not profit driven but create public value 2
SANRAL’S ROLE
• National road network - economic arteries • Provide safely engineered, well maintained roads • Improve journey experience • Transformation • Create opportunities for employment, business, tourism 3
WHAT DO WE DO?
• Responsible for proclaimed national roads: Toll and Non-Toll network • Maintain, fund, operate and rehabilitate national roads • Levy tolls to service toll roads • Manage concessionaires • Advise Minister on road related matters • Create public value 4
The Bigger Picture
• Road user is our client – SANRAL objective is to provide a safe well engineered road to the user – movement of people, services and goods • Value of time – Time is valuable, both commercial and private • To enable the economy to grow – creating wealth and job opportunities, saving on road user costs – sufficient infrastructure is required 5
The Bigger Picture
• In order to provide above, there are different focus areas: – As minimum, roads must be well maintained: • Routine road maintenance (crack sealing, pothole repair, grass cutting, road signs and markings, guardrails, etc) • Periodic maintenance – reseals and overlays • Rehabilitation • Available funding optimized using tools such as pavement management systems, HDM4 – Capacity improvements (combine with rehabs): • Additional lanes • Paved shoulders • Climbing lanes 6
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NATIONAL ROAD NETWORK (km) Description
Dual Carriageway
Non Toll
610
State Toll
520
BOT
443
Total
1 573 4-Lane Undivided 11 299 240 550 2-Lane Single 12 429 1013 605 14 047 Total % of SANRAL Network 13 050 81% 1 832 11% 1 288 16 170 8%
Pavement Age Trend 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 >25 yrs 21-25 yrs 16-20 yrs 11-15 yrs 6-10 yrs 0-5 yrs
Please Note: 75% of Network Older than Original 20 Year Design Life 9
Average Daily Traffic Trend 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1999 2000 0 - 5000 2001 2002 5000 - 10000 2003 2004 Year 2005 10000 - 20000 2006 2007 20000 - 50000 2008 > 50000 2009
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2010
COST OF MAINTENANCE DELAY - ROAD USER R 20 Good Condition R 18 R 16 R 14 R 12 R 10 R 8 R 6 R 4 R 2 R 0 0 Good 2 Poor Condition Very Poor Condition Toll Class 1 Toll Class 2 Toll Class 3 Toll Class 4 4 6 8 10 International Roughness Index (m/km) 12 14 16 Poor
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Based on HDM-4 Modeling
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Forcasted Non-Toll National Road Network Conditon R6bn/year Fiscus Funding for 13,050 km NO New Toll Roads Excellent Good Fair Poor Very Poor
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Year
100 90 20 10 0 80 70 60 50 40 30 Forcasted Non-Toll National Road Network Conditon R6bn/year Fiscus Funding for 11,050* km With New Toll Roads Excellent Good Fair Poor Very Poor
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Year
FUNDING
Government Grant for the non-toll network Cannot budget for a deficit Toll Revenue – to be used only on toll roads Borrowings from capital markets and financial institutions Other income (minimal) – rental income etc
Alternate Funding Sources finalised/under discussion
EIB ECA Foreign investors - roadshows
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Ratings
Moody’s Global Scale Issuer Ratings:
(Non-guaranteed notes)
Long-Term: Short-Term: A3 P-2 National Scale Issuer Ratings:
(Non-guaranteed notes)
Long-Term: Short-Term: Aa2.za
P-1.za
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BORROWING CAPACITY
• Initial R6 billion guaranteed funding (SZ bonds) • R1 billion N1 loan – separate guarantee • R26.91 billion guaranteed funding (HWAY bonds & others) • R15 billion – non guaranteed funding (NRA bonds) Increased from R10bn Total Borrowing capacity = R48.91 billion 16
TOTAL DEBT
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TOTAL DEBT
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BOND NRA013
THE SANRAL SUITE (Aug 2011)
Spire Awards: BEST BORROWER 2008 & 2009 BEST ISSUER 2009 (HWAY20)
COU PON 4.25
MATURITY 31 October 2013 COUPON DATES 30 April 31 October ISSUE AMT (million) 1 473 TYPE CPI NRA014 NRA018 11.25
12.25
30 April 2014 30 November 2018 30 April 31 October 31 May 30 November 132 2 553 Fixed Fixed NRA022 NRA023 NRA028 HWAY20 HWAY23 HWAY24 HWAY34 HWAY35 12.25
5.00
12.25
9.75
5.50
5.50
9.25
9.25
31 October 2022 31 May 2023 30 November 2028 31 July 2020 07 December 2023 07 December 2024 31 July 2034 31 July 2035 30 April 31 October 31 May 30 November 31 May 30 November 31 January 31 July 30 June 31 December 30 June 31 December 31 January 31 July 31 January 31 July 2 887 910 3 717 6 736 1 176 211 2 400 647 Fixed CPI Fixed Fixed CPI CPI Fixed Fixed
What have we been up to . . .
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1 ST CONTRACTS AWARDED APRIL TO 31 ST MARCH 2011
Business area R ‘000
Non-toll Network 7 572 188 Toll Network 1 978 083 Other
TOTAL VALUE 2009/10 2008/09 2007/08
2 780 815
12 331 086 18 608 882 18 188 912 4 657 693
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BUDGET
Business area R’million Non-toll Network 2011/12 8 629 Toll Network 6 860 2012/13 9 705 3 859 2013/14 10 316 3 734 TOTAL VALUE 15 489 13 564 14 050
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J-curve
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J-curve (in numbers)
The effect on the SANRAL debt level as a result of GFIP
APPROVED GFIP TARIFF SCENARIOS – DEBT LEVEL INFORMATION (ENTIRE TOLL PORTFOLIO) Scenario Maximum Debt (in Milions of ZAR) Year of Maximum Debt (in Million of ZAR) Year of Debt Repayment (in Millions of ZAR)
Original Gazetted tariff R Steerco recommended tariff – start date 1 Nov 2011 R - 47,396 - 53,636 Public transport exemption effect R - 54,191 Start date 1 Feb 2012 R - 57,251 2017/2018 2020/2021 2020/2021 2020/2021 2027/2028 2029/2030 2029/2030 2030/2031 24
Project Extent:
PLANNED LANE ADDITIONS: 185 km (2010) FUTURE UPGRADES: (223 KM) PLANNED NEW ROUTES: 158 km FINAL SCHEME: 561 KM
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Open Road Tolling (ORT)
In urban environment (space constraint), high traffic volumes (100 000 to 200 000 AADT), conventional tolling not an option ORT: All transactions recorded electronically: Number plates or tag Vehicle linked to an account No physical toll plazas – free flow tolling 26
SANRAL principles for ORT
One tag standard One account – may include various vehicles Central clearing
Full interoperability
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Open Road Tolling ORT
All the toll transactions will take place electronically No physical toll plazas
Tag Also known as: Transponder or On Board Unit (OBU)
Standard: 5,8GHz 28
Discounts Types
• E-Toll tag account • Time of day • Frequent user • Public Transport operator (PTO) • No discount if not registered • All discounts cumulative except PTO • Commuter taxis and busses exempt 29
ORT – Violation Processing
Potential violator identified if: – No e-tag or account – Insufficient funds in account – Vehicle not identifiable Transaction forwarded to VPC: – Send invoice – Not successful – Infringement notice – note, must be peace officers and should be appointed by SANRAL – Not paid – Courtesy letter (RTMC) – Not paid – Enforcement order 30
Violation Enforcement
• Enforcement Unit (traffic officers together with ORT contractor) is set up to do violation enforcement • Not only toll – all traffic violations • Also attending to other requirements – management of incidents 31
Key Account Management
• Agreements reached with fleetbanks to assist with distribution and management of tags – daily payment guaranteed • SAVRALA – near real time: transactions sent to rental companies > direct link • Large fleets: direct agreement with SANRAL – manage own tags and payments • Bulk registration: Initial registration done through predefined template 32
Capital Investment Programme SANRAL Funded Toll Network Development
N2 Tsitsikamma Toll Road - completed N17 East Toll Road Extension Gauteng Freeway Improvement Project (GFIP) N1 South and R30 Bloemfontein – Kroonstad N1 Polokwane Bypass - completed Mariannhill Extension King Shaka Interchange – completed Knysna Ring road 33
Current & Proposed Concessions
Current Concessions
• N4 East, Maputo Development Corridor – 471km • N3 Cedara, Heidelberg – 429km • N4 West, Platinum Highway – 382km
Proposed Concessions
• N1/N2 Winelands Toll Highway – On tender • N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway – Received RoD 34 • R300 Ring Road
Future Investments
• Maintain expenditure on asset preservation • Extend intelligent transport systems • Extend electronic toll collection system • Complete feasibility studies • Initial Environmental Scan • Construction Programme • GFIP Phase 2?
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N1 Section R300 to Hex River Valley: 105,6km R300 N2 Section R300 to Bot River: 70,3km
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CONCLUSION
• Investing in roads For sustainable economic growth Leverage procurement to transform industry Make communities economically independent Create public value • Effective delivery of road infrastructure for public transport and movement of freight • Expansive investment programme • Core components of South Africa’s growth strategy • Conservative and prudent funding strategy 38
Highways of the future
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Thank you!
SANRAL 48 Tambotie Avenue Val de Grace Pretoria 0184 PO Box 415 Pretoria 0001 Telephone: +27 12 844 8000 Fax: +27 12 844 8200 FRAUD HOTLINE: 0800 204 558 Website: www.nra.co.za
Nazir Alli, [email protected]
Inge Mulder, [email protected]
Philip Gildenhuys, [email protected]
Alice Mathew, [email protected]
Gill Raine, [email protected]
Prasanna Nana, [email protected]