Geo-spatial Electrification Planning for Myanmar

Sustainable Engineering Lab Director: Vijay Modi Department of Mechanical Engineering (SEAS) and Earth Institute, Columbia University Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, November 22, 2013 1

Outline

• • • • • • Rationale Our Approach: analysis platform for decision making: where what technology, prioritization, near term decisions guided by long-term, least-cost Not engineering designs, but rapid planning Examples: village, region and national scales Combine International Experience + Local Expertise Our Project Plan and Starting Work in Myanmar

Rationale

• • • Organize information in a systematic digital form Useful for – Quickly budgeting – Responding to internal and donor needs – Transmission upgrades/generation – Communication bet township/state/national Co-ordination between grid and off-grid projects

Benefits of National Geospatial Planning

•

Accelerate national access at scale:

– access and service standards can be applied consistently – important for remote, under-served populations •

Improve allocation of investments:

– ensure on-grid generation benefits from economies of scale – efficient targeting of off-grid systems for smaller communities – enable rapid design and bulk procurement in roll-out •

Provide a coordinated investment framework:

– help donors & government prioritize according to local development goals – reduce risk for private sector investors and entrepreneurs • NOTE: The difference between design vs. planning 4

Approach (1)

•

Acquire detailed geo-spatial, cost and technical information:

– Demand points (settlements) – Electricity Infrastructure (MV distribution lines) – Demand level – Growth rates (population, economic) – Cost Factors (grid and off-grid, initial & recurring)

(with off-grid)

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Approach (2)

•

Project demand and cost for a defined time-horizon:

– Apply growth rates, wealth / income mapping • •

Algorithmic computation of least-cost electricity system:

– Grid extension – Mini- or Micro-grids (renewable, hybrid) – Household Systems (solar)

Generate phased Roll-Out plan for grid and distributed systems (with off-grid)

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NetworkPlanner: An Algorithmic Planning System

NetworkPlanner How it Works

• A free, web-based tool (no license fees) Designed by our lab at the Earth Institute • Accepts essential local inputs of geospatial demand points, costs for electricity technologies, growth rates and other key parameters.

• Algorithmically plans least-cost electricity systems in these steps: 1. Computes the lifetime costs (initial and recurring) for meeting projected electricity demand at every point for all electricity options 2. Chooses the lowest-cost electricity technology for each point 3. Creates detailed map outputs for the least-cost grid and all standalone systems. 4. Creates detailed tabular outputs describing investment needs, recurring costs, additional generation required, and many other planning outputs.

Kenya – The First Major Use of Geospatial Planning Kenya / EI Electricity Planning Project:

• Results highlighted the need to electrify western, under-served areas • Region specific generation req. and transmission upgrades • Ultimately led to major loan 1.3B from World Bank 9

Example: Electrification Planning at the

Regional

scale Flores, Indonesia: 6,300 settlements in Eastern Indonesia 10

Inputs that went into access planning

• • • Location of each settlements Population of each settlement Where is the existing medium-voltage network?

• • Unit costs of utility infrastructure, off-grid New customer demand

Grid Extension

Essential Local Contribution: Technical and Cost Parameters

Initial Costs Recurring Costs

$30/m MV line (with poles) $600 Total HH connection Costs (incl: service drop/LV line) $200/ kVA Transformer (≥15 kVA) $0.35 / kWh "bus bar" cost Annual O&M: 1% of line costs 3% of transformer costs

Village Solar

$1.00/W panels (5 peak sun hours / day) $267/kWh batteries, 5 kWh/kW $100/HH for LV wire to home $1/W BOS (electronics) $267/kWh battery replacement (every 3.3 years) Annual O&M: 1% of panel cost

Off-Grid / HH Solar

$2.15/W panels (5 peak sun hours/day) $267/kWh batteries 5kWh/kW battery capacity $267/kWh battery replacement (every 2.5 years) Annual O&M: 2% of panel cost 13

Example of Grid-Rollout over 20 Years (Flores Island, Eastern Indonesia)

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A complete electricity plan specifies locations with grid access, mini-grids, and off-grid (solar home systems)

Model results provide quantitative outputs for locations served by all system types, with capacities and costs.

140 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 Household Solar Village Solar Mini-Grid Proposed Grid Grid Connected Proposed Grid: 166,000 HHs Village Solar Mini-Grid: 84,000 HHs

Bins: Number of Households per Settlement

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Pre-Existing Grid:

Pre-existing household grid connections (2010 Census) 170,130 Investments (250,000 new HH with elec)

Proposed New Grid Conn

Total Initial cost for grid network (MV+LV)

165,000

$165 Million

Village Solar Mini-Grids Conn

Total Initial cost for all Mini-Grid systems

Household Solar (model output)

Generation Costs for Grid Connected HH Coal + Solar + Geothermal + Wind

84,000

$94 Million

3000

$5M 22

Grid: Metrics

Pre-Existing Grid:

Pre-Existing MV line length

Units

kilometers Pre-existing connections (2010 Census) Households Existing MV Line Length per HH meters

Scenario Results

Proposed MV line length Proposed new grid connections Proposed MV line per new HH Proposed Total New Capacity Proposed New Capacity per HH

Units

kilometers Households meters MW kW 1,505 170,130 8.8

480 kWh/yr

1,934 166,141 11.6

21.8

0.130

240 kWh

94 19,400 4.8

1.3

0.065

Scenario Results Grid Costs

Total Initial cost for grid network (MV+LV) for MV grid network for LV, Svc Drop, HH wiring Total levelized cost for Grid power

480 kWh/yr per new Total

$163,479,151

HH conn.

$984

$53,638,088 $109,841,063 $0.63 / kWh $323 $661

240 kWh/yr per new Total

$14,337,188

HH conn.

$736 $1,904,402 $12,432,786 $0.72 / kWh $98 $638 23

Solar Mini-Grid: Metrics

Scenario Results

Proposed Total Capacity of Mini-Grids

480 kWh/yr 240 kWh/yr

35 49 Proposed new mini-grid connections Proposed Capacity per HH 84,430 416 215,840 225

Unit

MW Households W/HH Solar Mini-Grid: Costs

Scenario Results

Total Initial cost for system System discounted cost Total demand met by mini-grid (in kWh) Total levelized cost per kWH for Grid power

480 kWh/yr Total

$94,032,500

per new HH conn.

$1,114

$366,324,716 502,893,767 $0.76 /kWh $4,339 5,956

240 kWh/yr Total

$149,769,300

per new HH conn.

$694 $509,826,782 642,808,188 $0.83 /kWh $2,362 2,978 10% of the kWh from diesel backup for solar mini-grids brings reliability from 80% to 90% 24

Solar Home Systems: Metrics and Costs

Scenario Results

Proposed Total watts of SHS Proposed new SHS connections Proposed Size for each SHS 946 2,649

480 kWh/yr

kW Households 356 W/HH

240 kWh/yr

3,197 17,907 kW Households 179 W/HH Solar Home Systems Solar: Costs

Scenario Results

Total Initial cost for system System discounted cost Total demand met by Grid (in kWh) Total levelized cost for SHS power

480 kWh/yr Total

$5,321,274

per new HH conn.

$2,009 $18,141,961 $6,849 15,778,344 $1.16 /kWh 5,956

240 kWh/yr Total

$17,992,857

per new HH conn.

$1,005 $61,343,525 $3,426 642,808,188 35,897 $1.16 /kWh 25

Background Population Modeling GIS Platform Model Results Solar MicroGrids Talking Points

Marginal costs of grid connections can increase with roll-out

$2,000 $1,500

High Low

Mini-grid $1,000 $500 $0 +20,000 +40,000 +40,000 +40,000

Number of New Households Connected

+30,000 26

Mini-Grid Rollout: An example prioritizing higher demand villages

Planning at Township Level Mini-grid Solar home System Grid?

Solar Mini Grid Algorithm Results Technology Options

Grid Rollout: An example prioritizing most cost-effective branches

Investment in MV line per connection (meters shown) Phase 1 < 20 Phase 2 20 – 25 Phase 3 > 25

Incremental Infrastructure

• • • • one could start local and where/when demand grows and grid comes closer connect to the grid Keeps initial investments small and modular Does not strain utility immediately Allows demand grows and entrepreneurship to emerge organically

Our Project Plan

• The Earth Institute’s approach to Electrification Planning in Myanmar will include three phases with an in-country workshop roughly marking each phase, as outlined below.

Our Project Plan

1. Data Gathering

– Milestone 1: Inception Workshop – Deliverable 1: Inception Report – Milestone 2: Formation of a GIS dataset with acceptable resolution of population and MV network representation – Deliverable 2: Interim Report

Our Project Plan

2. Demand Analysis & Quantify Supply Needed

– Milestone 3: Workshop on Initial Results – Deliverable 3: Draft Final Geospatial Rollout Plan

3. Final Scaled-Analysis and Knowledge Transfer

– Milestone 4: Final Results Workshop – Milestone 5: GOM feedback on Draft Report – Deliverable 4: Final Geospatial Rollout Plan & accompanying datasets developed

Starting Work For Myanmar: Data Sets Needed for Electricity Modeling

• • • Settlement Data from Village or Village Tracts – Locations – Populations Existing Grid Distribution Data – map or digital file for medium-voltage lines Other drivers – Supply options, current/future – Demand/hh, population and demand growth, – unit costs of options

Village locations within Village Tracts

Village Tract data may be supplemented in some cases Electrification Planning benefits from village level data.

Settlement Data

• • • From MOLFRD, DRD Village location and population, 2001 In absence of more recent data, an excellent starting point • • Project to future Can we updated as new figures become available

EXAMPLE: State: Magway Township: Pakoku

Existing distribution grid

• • • Transmission Lines – Available through MEPE, up to 66 kV Medium Voltage lines , ESE, YESB – 33 kV and 11 kV lines – Currently not available in digital geo-spatial form – ESE is compiling paper/scan images from all states/regions, estimated avai: 1 month Smaller off-grid systems – Expect to report later

Other drivers

• • • • Large generation Sources – Hydropower, HGPE (generation), DHP (planning) Cost of Grid Generation in the future – Some uncertainty due to variable international fuel supply, scale of demand growth – JICA study – Hydro potentials, thru MOPE Hydro <5MW, from ESE Unit costs, demand

Original: jpeg with hand-drawn MV lines (red) GIS product: shapefile with digitized MV lines (blue)

Training and Capacity Building : Example: Data collection with smartphones Training and detailed work with local electricity technicians and managers resulted in completion of a detailed local medium-voltage distribution grid map for a region in Eastern Indonesia Training & mapping of MV grid lines (IDN) Training & mapping of MV grid lines (IDN) West Timor (IDN) MV grid initial estimate West Timor (IDN), MV grid lines following EI training & mapping 44

Approach to data

• • • • Settlement Data valuable for electricity, gas, roads, water, and other services Tools to gather and “maintain” data. How to rapidly capture planning grade data for existing lines Work closely with Government/Utility to embed tools/processes in their systems

Working with Ministries, Utilities, Enterprises

• • • We would like to begin here in Nay Pyi Taw, possibly following up in other regions or offices. We ask your permission and support Our plan and approach is to work side-by-side with local experts and practitioners to ensure the relevance, completeness and accuracy of all data and outputs.

Workshop tomorrow