Case for Change

Current system A school is below the floor if < 40% of pupil achieve 5A*-C including English and maths and pupils make below average (expected) progress in English and Maths

 The current system is easy to understand, but contains three perverse incentives:  Wolf Review identified that it encourages schools to enter pupils for

poor quality ‘easier to pass’ qualifications

;  It can encourage an excessive focus on pupils around the

C/D grade boundary

, to the detriment of others; and  It causes a

narrow concentration on just five subjects

, rather than a broad curriculum.

Development of new measures

 New measures designed to hold schools to account for all their pupil’s progress across a broader range of subjects. Progress 8 gives us: – a measure of school effectiveness – a measure that incentivise a broad and balanced curriculum with a strong emphasis on English and Maths – a measure which is sufficiently flexible to reflect pupils' needs  Proposals were broadly welcomed in the DfE consultation as an improvement to current accountability

Progress 8 / attainment 8

Attainment 8 measure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 English

Double-weighted*

Maths

Double-weighted

*Higher score of English Language or English Literature double-weighted if a student has taken both qualifications

EBacc qualifications

(sciences, computer science, geography, history and languages)

‘Open group’ Remaining EBacc qualifications and other approved qualifications

(GCSEs and other approved academic, arts or vocational qualifications) • We will calculate Progress 8 using a value added method, using KS2 English and maths results as a baseline.

• A school will be below the floor standard if pupils make half a grade less progress than expected across their 8 subjects.

Attainment 8 – some general rules



English slot (double weighted*)

– Best result of English Language and English Literature counts – English Language or English Literature on its own not double weighted – Lowest result of English Language and English Literature can count in an open slot – GCSE English can count on its own

Attainment 8 – some general rules



Maths slot (double weighted)

– Only EBacc qualifications can contribute – Linked pair GCSEs ‘applications of maths’ and ‘methods in maths’. Grades added together (not best grade doubled) – Other ‘maths’ qualifications (e.g. free-standing maths, pure maths, statistics..) can count in an open slot

ONLY

if there is no maths

Attainment 8 – some general rules

•

EBacc slots

– Any Ebacc science, humanities (history or geography) or language can count – No stipulation about the types of Ebacc subjects which can count (e.g. could all be science or languages) – Double Award science can take up two slots (the only double award that can do so)

Attainment 8 – some general rules



Open slots

– Lowest result of English Language and English Literature can count – Maths qualifications that are not part of the EBacc can count but only if the maths slot is not filled – Asset Languages at level 3 can count but only if the pupil does not have a GCSE in the same language – One graded music exam can count either alone or alongside GCSE music



Attainment 8 - Qualifications and points

Qualifications that appear on published 2014 Raiseonline documents library) – 2016 lists of high-value qualifications accepted in Performance Tables are eligible (lists available on  Points to be reported on a 1-8 scale  GCSE grade A* worth 8 points; grade G worth 1 point  Majority of qualifications converted to 1-8 scale using formula: A8 points=(2014 point score – 10) / 6 

Exceptions

– Top grade AS levels can score more than 8 points (9.5 for grade A, 8.25 for grade B, 7 for C, 5.75 for D and 4.5 for grade E) – Graded music exams (Grade 6 and 7 passes worth 7 points; all other Grade 6, 7 and 8 awards score 8 points) – Free standing maths qualifications (5.75 for grade A, 5 for B, 4.25 for C, 3.5 for D, 2.75 for E)

Progress 8 – measuring prior attainment

 Effectively will use the same method as in current Value added – Restricted to KS2 results in English and maths – Teacher assessments continue to be substituted where pupils are below the level of the test – Pupils with assessment scores in only one subject will have this score used as the baseline – Pupil will be excluded from Progress 8 if they have no KS2 assessment (but not Attainment 8) – Fine level used instead of current fine points (worked out in same way as points using test marks; Fine level = Fine points / 6)

Attainment 8 – a pupil example

Qualification Grade

GCSE English language GCSE English literature GCSE maths AS level physics GCSE physics GCSE biology GCSE chemistry GCSE history GCSE French GCSE art & design D E BTEC level 2 diploma in sport Merit C B A C A* B B C

Pts

5 6 7 7 8 6 6 5 4 3 6 English X 2 = 12 Maths EBacc1 EBacc2 Ebacc3 X 2 = 14 Other1 Other2 Other3 Attainment 8 score = 61

Pupil progress – example pupil

 Pupil score measured against average Attainment 8 score for pupils nationally having same prior attainment  Our example pupil scored 61 points for attainment 8 - just over a grade B average across all subjects (divide score by 10 [8 subjects with E&M double weighted])  Pupil has fine-level scores of 4.5 in English and 5.1 in maths; an average of 4.8

 Pupil’s score of 61 is therefore compared to the average Attainment 8 score achieved by all pupils having average prior attainment of 4.8

Pupil progress – example pupil

School Attainment 8 / Progress 8 scores

A school’s Progress 8 score is the mean average of its pupils Progress 8 scores

• School has 120 pupils

Pupil

Pupil 1 (example pupil) Pupil 2 Pupil 3 … Pupil 119 Pupil 120

Total (sum of scores) Att8 score

61 55 34 52 64.5

6,518.5

P8 score

+1.0

-0.3

+0.4

+61.4

… +0.1

-0.6

• Attainment 8 score is 6,518.5 / 120 = 54.32 (5.4 per subject; average grade between a B and a C) • Progress 8 score is 61.4 / 120 = 0.512

• Published score would be +0.51 (published to two decimal places) • Confidence intervals will show the range of scores within which underlying performance can be confidently said to lie

Floor standards

 Schools will be below the floor standard if their Progress 8 score is below -0.5 (i.e. if pupils are on average making half a grade less progress than pupils with the same prior attainment)  154 schools were under the current floor in 2013 (<40% of pupils achieved 5A*-C including English and maths and pupils made below average (expected) progress in English and maths).

 Approx 350 schools under Progress 8 floor standard based on 2013 data

What does opt in mean for schools?

 Data published in the 2015 performance tables that reflect the new Progress 8 measures as well as the current measures  A floor standard based on Progress 8  Ofsted taking Progress 8 opt-in status in to account during school inspections (data will be available to inspectors through RAISEonline, but only for schools that have opted in) ASCL is advising schools to wait until the shadow data is sent out in early 2015

Planning for Progress 8

 Precise grades a pupil requires to achieve a positive Progress 8 score will not be known in advance (pupil results are compared within the same cohort)  There will be several sources of information to help schools plan their teaching for individual pupils;    FFT accountability reports (2011-2013 entry patterns and attainment in different elements of Attainment 8) Transition matrices (2014 unvalidated data) 2014 ‘shadow’ results

2014 ‘shadow’ results

 Schools will be shown their Attainment 8 and Progress 8 scores based on 2014 exams in early 2015 – Attainment 8 score – Attainment 8 score converted to an average grade per subject – Progress 8 score with 95% confidence intervals  These results will not be published in performance tables but will help prepare schools for change in accountability system and inform decision whether to opt in in 2015  Pupil / school ready reckoners will be made available showing how measures are calculated

Exercise caution using previous results

 Subject entry patterns can affect Attainment 8 scores and these have shifted over the last few years; – EBacc introduced in 2010 – entry into all Ebacc subject areas rose from 21.6% in 2011 to 35.5% in 2013 – Wolf review will be implemented in 2014 in performance tables – Early entry rules will apply in 2014  Attainment 8 estimates may look substantially different in 2014 shadow results data compared to what we have seen in 2013  Estimates may also change in future years as schools adapt to new accountability measures