Transcript Key SEA framing issues - power trade cambodia

Key SEA framing issues
Power demand and power trade
development in the LMB and GMS
SEA Team
Purpose
• This presentation aims to illustrate the
changing character of the demand for power
within the LMB and where the mainstream
dams fit within the mix of electricity
generation
LMB Selected indicators 2004
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Thailand
Viet Nam
Population
(million) (2004)
13.8
5.8
64.2
82.1
GDP (current
USD billion)
4.9
2.2
150.1
41.2
GDP per capita
(current USD)
361
420
2,519
551
FDI (USD million)
131
17
1,064
1,610
FDI/capita (USD)
9.5
2.9
16.6
19.6
Electricity use
per capita (kWh)
45
160
1,752 (2003)
433 (2003)
Energy use per
capita (kgoe)
180.0
355.0
1,405.7 (2003)
544.3 (2003)
Fuelwood share
in total primary
energy
88%
67%
16%
49%
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
Regional GMS energy issues
Energy
poverty
widespread
Energy
vulnerability
high and rising
Energy
productivity
and policy
• Dependence on traditional sources of energy (e.g.
fuelwood)
• 20 % of GMs population (74 mil.) no access to electricity
• Energy consumption in GMS is only 2/3 of the world
average for developing countries
• 1993-2005 8% annual growth in energy consumption
• 21% of total energy consumed in the region imported
• Volatile energy prices and limited alternative energy
sources mean the region is vulnerable
• Energy supplies low and unpredictable – overall quality low
• Lack of competitive pressure on energy suppliers
• Policy regimes inadequate to address emerging challenges
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2008
High economic growth in the LMB
1985-2005
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2008
Significant differences in electricity
consumption
Country
Per capita household
consumption (Kwh)
Share of residential sector
in total electricity
consumption (%)
Cambodia
29
52.0
Lao PDR
95
53.0
Thailand
409
21.0
Vietnam
242
42.0
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2008
Growing demand for power
• Not consistent between countries
• All projects in Cambodia and Laos, so will be
generating more than they can consume
• Mainstream project – high proportion of
power generated will be exported
• If projects are planned on basis of export, they
must have secure markets,
• Anticipated markets are at moment are
Thailand, Vietnam, China
Uncertainty of markets in short-term
• Thailand in economic crisis and may be some years before
want to import more power
• Already some projects giving anticipated unit cost prices to
break even which are well above market prices e.g. Sambor
and Vietnam
• Vietnam in process of multi-year power market reform over
many years, e.g. competitive generation by 2005 - 2014 and
competitive retail power markets by 2022
• China moving towards greater self-provision of energy
SO there are uncertainties in use of this capacity from
mainstream dams and when they are going to come
Significant differences in hydropower
potential (MWyr/yr)
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Thailand
Viet Nam
Regional
total (GMS)
Low –cost
1,670
4,640
2,784
3,248
54,102
Medium-cost
1,114
3,944
1,856
3,712
43,802
High-cost
742
2,320
928
1,392
23,571
Small
650
1,015
406
812
5,928
Total
4,176
11,919
5,974
9,164
127,403
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
Limited power trade flows between
LMB countries in 2005 (GWh)
Exports
Cambodia
Lao PDR
-
74
74
Lao PDR
-
2,628
Thailand
2,033
Viet Nam
521
Imports
Cambodia
Thailand
-
RoW
Total
Viet Nam
RoW
3,234
-
Total
5,267
521
2,628
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
3,234
-
Regional power demand
• Lao –700 MW generated now with 60 MW imported
from Thailand
• 7,000 MW by 2020
• 90% of 2020 will come from Hydropower
• 1500 MW of 2020 would come from mainstream
dams
• Domestic demand is 450 MW by 2020, so only about
7% of installed capacity
• But one major energy consuming project mine might
have requirement for 60 MW
Cambodia power demand
• 13 MW generated now
• 90% of power generated from imported fuels
• Target to reduce dependence on fuel wood from 80%
of population to 52% by 2015
• Target to increase domestic provision of electricity
from to 20% of population to 70%
• Potential 10,000 MW from large hydropower
projects, plus 3,000 from mini-hydro
• 3,580 MW of 2020 would come from mainstream
dams (Sambor and Stung Treng)
• But most of this is destined for export
Projected growth in power demand in
LMB 2005-2025
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008 (base case projection)
LMB Regional Energy Story
Energy
Demand
Future
•Coal/thermal?
• tributaries?
• nuclear?
• gas?
• mainstream hydropower?
• Oil?
•biomass
• renewable?
• RoW
Projected energy demand
Projected energy demand with
demand management
Existing
Capacity
•coal/thermal
• gas
•Tributaries
•Oil
•biomass
• RoW
Supply
time
*RoW = Rest of World
Demand delayed through
demand management &
efficiency measures
Hydropower in GMS power demand to
2025
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008 (base case projection)
Projected power trade with integrated
power markets 2025 (GWh)
Exports
Cambodia
Lao PDR
-
40
15
Lao PDR
22
-
50
Thailand
9,482
42,458
Viet Nam
3,612
25,988
Imports
Cambodia
RoW
Total
13,116
Thailand
Viet Nam
RoW
Total
55
57
129
147,269*
199,209
-
5,918
35,518
644
584
-
1,228
69,130
649
153,244
-
-
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008 (based on IRM modeling)
*Thailand is projected to import 139,385 GWh from Myanmar by 2025
What about the crisis?
Source: World Bank 2009
e – expected
f - forecast
Changing economic environment?
Power sector projections based on the assumption of
continuing rapid economic growth in the region
(between 6.3 and 7.6 % to 2025 for the GMS region)
Can these levels of growth continue to be expected
with the global economic downturn?
What does this mean for likely future energy demand in
the region – especially where growth has been
dependant upon exports?
What does this mean for investment in the energy
sector? And more specifically investment in
hydropower?
Mainstream dams
• Provide 11.5% of installed capacity by 2020
• 9.3% of power produced in the LMB by 2020
• 60 GW hrs annually of the 644 GWhrs per
annum in LMB by 2020
• Conditions of BOT, 25 – 30 year handover in
which government would have the capacity to
manage, but there would be major
maintenance and replacements costs