Transcript 余田成男（京都大学） A new proposal of international

February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia
A New Proposal for the Research Program
to Promote Science and Technology for FY 2007-09
Strategic Promotion of Collaborations
in Science and Technology in Asia
International Research Project
for Prevention and Mitigation
of Meteorological Disasters
PI: Shigeo YODEN
Kyoto University
in collaboration with
MRI/JMA and ITB/Indonesia
平成19年度科学技術振興調整費
新規提案課題
アジア科学技術協力の戦略的推進
1 - 1 自然災害への対応に資する防災科学技術分野の研究開発
東南アジア地域の
気象災害軽減国際共同研究
余田 成男
代表機関： 京都大学
国内参画機関： 気象庁 気象研究所
国外参画機関： インドネシア バンドン工科大学
研究代表者：
Purpose
Experimental downscale NWPs in SE Asia
↓
 Research and development of
“Decision support system for prevention and
mitigation of meteorological disasters”
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
Establishment of “International Scientist-Network
for Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological
disasters in SE Asia”
Major Research Subjects
(a) Experimental downscale NWPs in the tropics with
meso-scale models
(b) Assessments of the impact of new observational data
on NWPs with advanced data assimilation schemes
(c) Development of a unified data base and “Decision
support system for prevention and mitigation of
meteorological disasters”
(+) International collaborations through workshops and
short/long visits
(a) Experimental downscale NWPs in the tropics
with meso-scale models
(Slingo, 2006)
GSM
1.5km-NHM
MSM
気象庁
Recent attempt by Pak Tri at ITB
Dr. Tri W. Hadi and
his PC cluster (ITB)
WEB page of Climate Prediction Laboratory
(WCPL) http://weather.geoph.itb.ac.id/
(b) Assessments of the impact of new observational data on
NWPs with advanced data assimilation schemes
Kyoto Univ.EAR at Koto Tabang, West Sumatra, Indonesia
advanced
data assimilation
With
4D-VAR or EnKF
GPS-LEO occultation
techniques for T and
water vapor
(c) Development of a unified data base
Unified Data Exchange System
Distributed Data Management System
THORPEX
ファイル形式の隠蔽 etc
研究者
ユーザー利用
“Decision support system for prevention and mitigation of
meteorological disasters”
WMO(2005) THORPEX: A World Weather Research Program
(+) International collaborations through
workshops and short/long visits
International Workshop on
Regional Models for the Prediction
of Tropical Weather and Climate
March 1~3, 2006
at Sheraton Bandung Hotel & Tower,
Indonesia
sponsored by KAGI21
Research Groups
(1) Fundamental Research and System Development
Kyoto University
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メソモデルを用いた熱帯域気象のダウンスケール予報実験
最新データ同化システムの試験開発と機動的観測データのインパクト実験
観測・予報データ統合データベース・気象災害対策判断支援システム試作
国際研究集会の開催と国際的技術協力
流動型
ポスドク研究員
モデル共同開発
データ共同利用
若手研究者長期
短期滞在型研究
国際ワークショップ・研修スクールの開催等
(2) Operational Model
Development
MRI/JMA
機動的共同観測
モデル共同開発
(3) Near-Real Time Experiment
ITB, NTU, and some others
 気象庁モデルの精緻化と検証実験
 メソモデル国際共同研究への環境整備
 メソモデル熱帯域データ同化実験
 東南アジア域ダウンスケール予報の
準リアルタイム実用化実験
 バンドン工科大学内外における国際
共同研究推進組織の立上げ
国際的技術協力
International relationship of colleagues in Kyoto
University in SE and S Asia
Bangladesh： B.I.T.・Mohammad Nazrul Islam  Hayashi, Satomura
Cambodia：
 Satomura
India： NCMRWF・V.S. Prasad  Hayashi, Tsuda
Indonesia： ITB・Emmy Suparka, Tri W. Hadi, ・・・
BMG・Mezak A. Ratag  Tsuda, Shiotani, Yoden
Laos： DMH・Palikone Thalongsengchanh  Yoden, Satomura
Malaysia： MNU・Fredolin T. Tangang
DM・Mohan K. Sammathuria  Satomura, Tsuda
Nepal：
 Satomura, Hayashi, Ishikawa
Phillipine： PNU・Josefina C. Argete
Manila Obs.・Mariano Estoque  Satomura
Saudi Arabia：
 Ishikawa
Singapore： NTU・Tieh Yong Koh, Lan Yi, ・・・  Yoden
Thai： TMD・Somchai Baimoung, Kam Promasakha  Satomura
Vitenam： Hanoi Univ.・Kieu Thi Xin, Duc Le  Shiotani, Satomura
Backgrounds and Prospects
(1) Histories
 Kyoto University has unique tradition in field survey
in SE Asia and Africa (natural science and liberal
arts)
 JMA is one of the most advanced forecast centers
with a brilliant history of NWPs in the 20 century
 MOU on collaborations
in research and education
between Kyoto Univ.
and ITB in 2006
(2) Advances in computer technology
Exponential growth in the last half century
computational speed
memory size
These years are exciting period
in NWPs and climate simulations!
The Earth Simulator
R&D Center
ENIAC
http://ei.cs.vt.edu/~history/
ENIAC.Richey.HTML
http://www.es.jamstec.go.jp/esc/
jp/index.html
 An example in climate change simulations
 Climateprediction.net
http://www.climateprediction.net/
108,000 participants from 188 countries (as of February, 2007)
 Stainforth et al. (2005)
“Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels
of greenhouse gases”. Nature, 433, 403-406
(3) Recent activities
 International workshop/meeting on meso-scale NWPs
１） KAGI21 “International Workshop on Regional Models for
the Prediction of Tropical Weather and Climate”
（March 2006, Bandung, Indonesia)
about 30 participants from 9 countries of ASEAN/Japan
２） 3rd AOGS annual meeting “Applied Mesoscale Numerical
Weather Prediction in SE Asia”
（July 2006, Singapore)
30～40 participants
(4) Societal needs/merits
 Potential increase of the risk of high-impact
weather associated with global warming and/or
economical development
 Usefulness of new knowledge on tropical
meteorology with application to NWSs of hot and
humid weather (Typhoon, BAIU front, ・・・)
 Better international relationship through
collaborations with highly-talented young scientists
in SE Asia on the research of advanced NWPs
(5) Economical values
 Design of optimum observation system for NWPs
 Impact of high-resolution information on risk
management (floods, stormy winds, etc.), waterresource management, ・・・
 Utilization of probability information obtained by
ensemble NWPs in the fields of aviation,
transportation, industry, agriculture, commerce, ・・
 Environmental issues with longer time scales: global
warming, air pollution with long-range transport, ・・・
Final Remarks
WINDS (Wideband InterNetworking engineering test
and Demonstration Satellite)
will be launched in 2007
Test use to transfer global GPV data of
medium-range ensemble forecasts
提供：JAXA
A review paper on “Atmospheric Predictability”
Yoden (2007)
Special Issue of J. Met. Soc. Japan on 125 ｔｈ
anniversary of the foundation of MSJ
Contents:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
A historical perspective
Theories on atmospheric predictability
Ensemble numerical weather predictions
THORPEX challenges
Concluding remarks
Backup Slides
気象庁
次期予報
解析システム
の提案
共同研究契約
の一括締結
現予報
解析システム
の改良点指摘
現業予報解析システム・現業データの提供
実験的気象予測研究プラットフォーム
気象庁と大学・研究機関との統一インターフェイス
次世代予報解析
システム実験
事例解析・
ハインドキャスト実験
大 学・研究機関
フロンティア・ＥＳＣ・電力中研・他