Slide 1

Download Report

Transcript Slide 1 

Land Values, Rents, Rent to
Value Ratios and Land as an
Investment
Damona Doye
Sarkeys Distinguished Professor
Extension Economist and Regents Professor
Roger Sahs
Assistant Extension Specialist
A new website,
aglease.info
&
a reminder
about
aglease101.org
Sources of data
• Land values
– USDA National Ag Statistics Service annual summary
– Agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
– Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank quarterly Ag Credit
Survey
• Rental rates
– OSU survey results in CR-216 and CR-230
– USDA NASS annual statistics
– Oklahoma Commissioners of the Land Office
US and OK Land Values
4,000
3,500
$/acre
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
US Pasture Land Value
OK Pasture Land Value
US Cropland Value
OK Non-irrig Cropland Value
USDA-NASS data (August 2012)
Farm Real Estate Value, 2012
(% change)
-2.2%
10.0%
2.75%
7.0%
5.0%
20.9%
3.4%
23.9%
7.4%
33.5%
5.0%
NC
5
11.50
2.9%
12.0%
13.7%
9.6%
9.1%
1-9
10-19
> 20
USDA-NASS data
-3.5%
NC
5.2%
1.4%
-1.1%
NC
26
NC
0.9% -2.4% -7.9%
N/C
2.9%
-7.7%
13.6%
17.5%
11.3%
-4.5%
4.0%
22.8%
6.4%
19.2%
8.2%
10.4%
3.7%
<0
-1.5%
26.5%
-3.9%
NC
NC
Crop Land Average Value by State, 2012
($ per acre)
853
1,350
4,050
2,510
2,560
4,230
2,320
2,600
4,000
1,290
7,300
4,480
2,690
5,650
6,800 6,200
1,450
1,750
9,810
4,700
3,450
3,340
12,380
7,800
5,000
7,000
4,000
3,430
8,500
1,830
1,390
2,370
2,520
2,070 2,300
N/A
1,690
2,120
500 - 999
1,000 – 2,499
2,500 – 4,999
5,000 – 15,000
USDA/NASS data
3,360
5,730
Crop Land Cash Rent, 2012
($ per acre)
215
58
29.5
151
130
143
115
94
50.5
58.5
72
72.5
235
212
60.5
32.5
74
33
89.5
87
49
130
110
70.5
91
94.5
37.5
99
N/A
68
122
175
267
200
79.5
142
108
176
130
47
52
98
36
25 to 50
76.5
103
51 to 100
101 to 150
>151
USDA/NASS data
www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
USDA/NASS data
1600
$35
1400
$30
1200
$25
1000
$20
800
$15
600
400
$10
200
$5
0
$0
Year
OK Non-irrig Cropland Value
OK Non-irrig Cropland Rent
USDA/NASS data
Average Cropland Rent ($ per Acre)
Average Cropland Value ($ per Acre)
OK Average Cropland Value and Rental Rates
Average Annual Dryland Cash
Rental Rates ($/acre)
Wheat
31.78
NW
SW
NC
E
State
28.66
10-49
30.96
15-55
38.21
20-55
35.70
20-67
32.81
10-67
Alfalfa
41.61
40.40
32-50
Grain
Sorghum
27.90
29.03
16-45
Northwest
North
central
East
Southwest
Source: OSU/NASS survey, fall 2012
Pasture Land Average Value by State, 2012
($ per acre)
810
570
490
620
1,500
1,210
450
2,800
2,600
3,000
350
1,150
1,560
500 - 999
1,000 – 2,499
2,500 – 4,999
5,000 – 15,000
13,500
640
1,820
USDA/NASS data
4,100
2,450
4,400
3,580
2,300
2,850
1,930
N/A
3,200
3,100
950
950
1,250
2,500
660
920
2,130
590
2,300
1,550
4,200
Average Pastureland Rent, 2012
($ per acre)
5.90
24.50
14
17.50
34
4.80
17.50
5
46
38
35
4.60
16.50
11.50
2.80
21
28
16
N/A
0 to 5
6.50
5 to 14
15 to 24
25 to 50
USDA/NASS data
26
20
11.50
18
19
28
12.50
www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
1400
$14
1200
$12
1000
$10
800
$8
600
$6
400
$4
200
$2
0
$0
Year
OK Pasture Land Value
USDA/NASS data
OK Pasture Rent
Average Rent ($ per Acre)
Average Pasture Land Value ($ per
Acre)
OK Average Pasture Land Value and Rental Rate
OK Pasture Land Values as a Percent of Cropland Values
http://agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues/
Average Annual Pasture Cash
Rental Rates ($/acre)
Native
Pasture
11.61
NW
SW
NC
E
State
9.30
5-15
12.44
4-30
12.66
8-21
13.87
3-33
12.40
3-33
Bermuda
16.61
17.36
6-35
18.99
4-50
19.27
4-50
Other
Pasture
16.10
23.09
8-50
21.67
12-30
20.70
6-50
Northwest
North
central
East
Southwest
Source: OSU/NASS survey, fall 2012
US and OK Cropland and Pasture Rent to Value Ratios
6
Rent to Value
5
4
3
2
1
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
US Cropland Rent to Value
OK Non-Irrig Cropland Rent to Value
US Pasture Rent to Value
OK Pasture Rent to Value
USDA/NASS data
2010
2012
Value of $1000 Invested in OK Pastureland,
Cropland or the S&P
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$-
Pastureland
S&P
Cropland
Value of an Investment Made in Oklahoma Farmland as
a Percent of an Investment in the S&P by Initial Year of
Investment
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Pastureland
Cropland
www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
2009-2011 Cropland and Pasture Values by Size of Tract
http://agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues/