Transcript Future and green consumption patterns

GHG reduction potential of changes in
consumption patterns
Evidence from Swiss household consumption survey
Bastien Girod and Peter de Haan
Institute for environmental decisions (IED), ETH Zurich
22.06.2009
Structure of presentation
 Relevance of the research question
 Method


Estimate of GHG emissions of consumption
Deriving high and low emitters
 Results
 Conclusion
05.07.2009
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
2
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Why potential of changing consumption
for reducing GHG emissions matters
 Problem: Very costly/ hardly feasible to reach low GHG
stabilization level only using changing technologies
 “We need to change our consumption patterns” Rajendra
Pachauri 05.07.2009
 Research questions:
1.
2.
05.07.2009
What is potential influence of changing consumption patterns?
Which consumption characteristics make the difference
between high and low emitters?
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
3
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Method for bottom-up estimate
1. Household consumption data (N=14’580)



Surveys 2000 to 2003; all purchases of one month
450 consumption categories
Additional data: Durable goods & household
characteristics
2. Derive functional unit of consumption

Example: kg food, pkm car, m2 shelter, hr service
3. Connect with LCA process  GHG emissions
05.07.2009
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
4
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Derive functional (physical) units
Accounting of functional
units
Physical data [kg, liter]
Share of
total GHG
emissions
Consumption categories
40% Food, beverage, gasoline
(Ø efficiency  pkm)
Additional data [m2]
29% Living
- shelter model for GHG emissions
Purchases [n] x “portion size”
[(kg, liters, km, hr )/ n]
Expenditure [€]
27% Food, goods, transport
services
4% Services
 Resulting GHG estimates comparable to studies using
EIO data and expenditure survey or top-town data
05.07.2009
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
5
Relevance Method
Results
GHGe
estimates
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
What is the potential of changing
consumption?
 Best-practice-consumption: 10% of households
with lowest GHG emissions
 Worst-practice-consumption: 10% of households
with highest GHG emissions
 Advantage:


05.07.2009
No assumption on what would be possible
Consistent consumption pattern (rebound included)
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
6
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
GHG emissions of household types
35
GHG emissions per household
GHG emissions [t CO2/yr]
30
GHG emissions per person
25
20
15
10
5
Mean
05.07.2009
single
two adult
small family
large family
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
GHG emissions of household types
35
GHG emissions per household
GHG emissions [t CO2/yr]
30
GHG emissions per person
25
20
15
10
5
Mean
05.07.2009
single
two adult
small family
large family
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
GHG emissions of household types
35
GHG emissions per household
GHG emissions [t CO2/yr]
30
GHG emissions per person
25
20
15
10
5
Mean
05.07.2009
single
two adult
small family
large family
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
GHG e
intensity
price
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
GHG emissions [t CO2/ cap. yr]
GHG emissions hh type & income group
05.07.2009
25
20
15
10
5
2
3
4
5
6
7
10
8 9
1
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
GHG e
intensity
price
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Same income group and household type
GHG emissions [t CO2/cap. yr]
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Mean
05.07.2009
1
2
3
4
5
6
GHG emission group
7
8
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
9
10
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
GHG e
intensity
price
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Same income group and household type
GHG emissions [t CO2/cap. yr]
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Mean
05.07.2009
1
2
3
4
5
6
GHG emission group
7
8
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
9
10
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
GHG e
intensity
price
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Comparison of high and low emitters
GHG emissions [t CO2/cap. yr]
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Mean
05.07.2009
1
2
3
Mean
4
5
6
GHG emission group
7
8
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
9
10
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
GHG emissions [kgCO2e/yr]
Category
food
beverage
eating out
living
electricity
furnishing
clothes
other goods
books and news
personal hygiene
car
public traffic
airplane
services (t)
services (s)
transfers
Total
Mean
kg CO2/yr
1'042
111
408
2'918
843
496
116
565
66
89
2'215
241
211
89
96
155
9'660
GHG emissions allocated to functional units
Low
-163
-23
-23
-1'257
-315
-228
9
-171.1
-11
3
-1'471
164
-211
48
-7
-28
-3'684
High
113
15
4
1'717
566
364
-11
139.1
9
-10
2'065
-57
1'353
-20
1
26
6'273
Note: “High/low” refers to the highest respectively lowest 10 percent of households considering total GHG emissions. Red background marks deviations towards higher
emissions, green towards lower emissions.
05.07.2009
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
14
Relevance Method
Results
GHGe
estimates
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
High and low emitters matter
For instance, the Swiss Kyoto target of reducing
GHG emissions by 8 percent (compared to 1990)
by 2010 could be reached if:


05.07.2009
the share of households showing best-practice
consumption were to increase by 15 percent
9 percent of the households showing worst-practice
consumption patterns were to shift to a consumption
pattern with average emissions
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
15
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Expenditure[CHF/yr]
Category
Mean
GHG emissions allocated to functional units
CHF/yr
Low
High
food
5'081
-9.7%
4.2%
housing
6'435
2.5%
-0.2%
- shelter
6'146
4.4%
-3.3%
- electricity
288.8
-37.5%
67.1%
goods
4'033
-1.5%
2.3%
mobility
4'093
-31.1%
30.5%
- car
3'672
-37.2%
23.4%
353
45.4%
-13.5%
68
-100.0%
640.7%
leisure
3'129
45.4%
-16.1%
services
3'350
-0.5%
0.1%
26120.7
-1.0%
4.0%
- public traffic
- airplane
Total
Note: “High/low”
refers to the highestBastien
respectively
lowest
10 percent of households
considering
total GHG emissions.
Girod
/ Environmental
Decisions
(IED) / [email protected]
05.07.2009
16
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
Conclusion
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Prices [CHF/functional unit]
Category
Functional
unit
Mean
GHG emissions allocated to functional units
CHF/fu
Low
High
food
kg
8.4
7.8%
-3.6%
housing
m2
155.0
23.6%
-16.6%
goods
kg
17.4
46.8%
-39.7%
mobility
pkm
0.3
96.1%
-48.9%
leisure
h
4.5
47.9%
-16.2%
Note: “High/low” refers to the highest respectively lowest 10 percent of households considering total GHG emissions.
Red background marks higher prices compared to mean, green towards lower prices.
05.07.2009
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
17
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
GHG intensity [kgCO2/functional unit]
Functional unit
GHG emissions allocated to
Mean
functional units
kgCO2 / fu
Low
High
food
kg
2.6
-3.7%
4.6%
housing
m2
90.6
-29.8%
34.2%
goods
kg
5.7
-19.2%
3.9%
mobility
pkm
0.19
0.2%
-5.8%
leisure
h
0.13
12.2%
-11.4%
services
CHF
0.03
-6.9%
0.5%
Note:
“High/low” refers to the highest respectively lowest 10 percent of households considering total GHG emissions.
Red background marks higher GHG emissions per functional unit compared to mean, green towards lower GHG emissions per functional unit.
05.07.2009
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
18
Relevance Method
GHGe
estimates
Results
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Consumption characteristics
Consumption attributes
based on physical units
Mean
value
low 10%
high 10%
3.1
30%
-22%
Single family house [n / h.h.]
0.29
-52%
103%
"Green" heating [n/ household]
0.16
182%
-50%
Car use [pkm/month × pers.]
842
-71%
104%
Organic [n/month × pers.]
05.07.2009
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
19
Relevance Method
Results
GHGe
estimates
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Conclusion for mitigation policy
 Few crucial consumption categories

car use, airplane, living and electricity. remaining
variance can be explained by goods and food.
 No absolute indicators for low GHG footprint
 Consider total GHG emissions of households
 Promote expenditure on quality and leisure
05.07.2009
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
20
Relevance Method
Results
GHGe
estimates
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
Conclusions for research on impact of
quality
We found that “green” consumer opt for higher quality.
 But: higher quality goods might also lead to higher
impact

Use of more exclusive materials, processing, less economy of
scales
 Also the opposite can be true

05.07.2009
Organic food, longer life time, regional production (transport,
energy mix, environmental standards)
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
21
Thank you for questions and comments
[email protected]
05.07.2009
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
22
Relevance Method
Results
GHGe
estimates
functional best-/worst low-/ high GHG
units
practice
emitters
emissions
Conclusion
consumption
matters
spending
price
GHG e
intensity
organic
food
for policy- for
maker
research
What is the potential of changing
consumption?
 Best-practice-consumption: Emitters with lowest
GHG emissions
 Worst-practice-consumption: Emitters with
highest GHG emissions
 Consideration of household types and income
 Advantage:


05.07.2009
No assumption on what would be possible
Consistent consumption pattern (rebound included)
Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / [email protected]
23