Transcript Slide 1

Review for exam II—Fall 2014
October 16, 2014
Format for exam
• 30 -- 40 multiple choice
• 3 sets of discussion questions
• Identical in format to previous exam
Bring…/Don’t Bring…
• Bring…
– Scantron sheet
– Pencil, eraser, calculator
• Don’t Bring…
– Paper
– PDAs, Pocket PC’s, tablets,
– Programmable, high memory storage devices
We Covered:
• Burns Chs 4, 7, 8
• Larson and Gray 5, 6, 7
Estimation
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Weakest link
History database
By analogy
Use models
Top down—uses…..XXXXXXX??
Bottom up – uses…..XXX??
Reconciliation of top down and bottom up
Parkinson’s Law
• What is it??
th
PMBOK Guide 4 Edition
Project Integration Management
- Develop Project Charter
Processes
- Develop Project Management Plan
- Direct and Manage Project Execution
- Monitor and Control Project Work
- Perform Integrated Change Control
- Close Project or Phase
Project Scope Management
- Collect Requirements
- Define Scope
- Create WBS
- Verify Scope
- Control Scope
Project Time Management
- Define Activities
- Sequence Activities
- Estimate Activity Resources
- Estimate Activity Durations
- Develop Schedule
- Control Schedule
More Processes
Project Cost Management
- Estimate Costs
- Determine Budget
- Control Costs
Project Quality Management
- Plan Quality
- Perform Quality Assurance
- Perform Quality Control
Project Human Resource Management
- Develop Human Resource Plan
- Acquire Project Team
- Develop Project Team
- Manage Project Team
What are the processes that make
up the cost management
knowledge area?
• Estimate Costs
• Determine Budget
• Control Costs
What are the processes that make
up the quality management
knowledge area?
• Plan Quality
• Perform Quality Assurance
• Perform Quality Control
Methodologies
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Waterfall – Document-driven—CASE tools
Spiral—risk-driven—invented by Barry Bhoem
RAD—superior to SAD
Agile/Iterative—increasingly popular
– Scrum
– RUP
Process Map
Waterfall
Few risks, late integration and testing
Low Ceremony
High Ceremony
Little Doc, light process
discipline
Heavy Doc, heavy
process discipline,
CCB
Iterative
Risk Driven, Continuous integration and testing
Definition of
Requirements
The Waterfall Staircase
Design
System
Acceptance
Testing
Implementation
Operation
Figure 2-3. Spiral Model of Software Dev.
What is the homegound for
Waterfall?
• Stable requirements – few changes
• Large monolithic app—can’t be broken up
• Difficult development
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Mathematical algorithms
Compliers
Database engines
Artificial intelligence apps
Home Ground for Agile
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Unstable/unknown requirements
Rapid technological change
An environment conducive to learning
An environment accommodative of change
The Transform Model
• Did it work?
We also covered
• Probabilistic PERT
(formulas will be given to you)
– Each task (activity) requires three time
estimates – Optimistic, Most likely, Pessimistic
•Crashing
Further comments
• Burns 6-13: Almost all of you did this
wrong—you did not follow my solution in
class, nor did you follow the solution
provided in Chapter 6 of Burns
Further Recitation
• What is meant by feasibility?
• What are three kinds of feasibility?
– General, economic (financial), technical
• What is meant by a risky decision?
– State probabilities are KNOWN
– Upside only, downside only, or both
• What is meant by an uncertain decision?
• How can decision theory help us make
better project decisions?
Know MS Project Navigation
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What tool is used to specify subordination?
What tool is used to link tasks sequentially?
What tool is used to assign resources?
How do you enter resources and their hourly rates?
How do you show COST on the Entry table?
How do you specify durations?
What enables you to see ES, EF, LS, LF, Slack
Topics--Chapter 6
• Must understand what Bayesian revision
does for you
• Will have to do analyses exactly like that in
Chapter 6
– DMUU—Decision Making under Uncertainty
– DMUR—Decision Making under Risk
Decision Making under
Uncertainty
• Choose alternatives—must be mutually
exclusive
• Choose states—must be mutually exclusive
and collectively exhaustive
• For each alternative/state pair specify a
payoff
• What are the decision criteria? They are
based on the DM’s attitude toward the
situation—pessimist, optimist, regretist, etc
To solve a problem like 6-10, you
must
• Do both DMUU and DMUR
• Recall that EPPI and EVPI are not decision
criteria, like EV* (maximal expected value)
and ER* (minimal expected regret)
To solve a problem like 6-12 or 613, you must
• First, solve the decision problem without any
additional information
– Determine the optimal choice
– Compute EPPI and EVPI
• Second, perform Bayesian revision
• Third, solve decision problem assuming a positive
predictor state (consultant predicts SUCCESS)
• Fourth, solve decision problem assuming a negative
predictor state (consultant predicts FAILURE)
• Compute EPSI and EVSI
Remember…
• EPPI = expected payoff of perfect information is not a
decision criterion … tells us the payoff of perfect information
• EVPI = EPPI – EV*(WITHOUT ADD’TL INFORMATION) … tells
us how much perfect information would be valued
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EVPI = expected value of PERFECT information
EPSI = expected payoff of sample information
EVSI = EPSI – EV*(WITHOUT ADD’TL INFORMATION)
EVSI = expected value of sample information… tells us
how much sample information would be valued—how much we might be
willing to pay for additional information