Transcript Document

Northwest Economic Research Center
College of Urban and Public Affairs
Oregon’s Economic Forecast
May 17, 2013
About Northwest Economic
Research Center (NERC)
• Established in 2011
• Hosted at the College of Urban and Public
Affairs (CUPA) in Portland State University
• Director: Dr. Thomas Potiowsky
• Assistant Director: Dr. Jenny H Liu
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About OEA
Excerpts from Slide Presentation to
Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors
Preliminary Economic Outlook
Office of Economic Analysis
Mark McMullen
Josh Lehner
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Recent Oregon Economy Facts
• 8.2% Unemployment rate for March 2013 (March US rate
is 7.6% from 8.8% March 2012, and down 3.4% from
recession highs)
(US April rate 7.5%) (OR April 8.0%)
• 17th fastest job growth at 1.5% for all states for March
2013 over March 2012.
• Total nonfarm employment increased 1.4% year-overyear for the first quarter of 2013. Total nonfarm up
66,200 since Feb 2010 with the private sector up 73,000
through March 2013.
• 5.3% personal income growth for 4th quarter of 2012
over 4th quarter of 2011. Annualized 4th quarter 2012
growth at 7.5%.
• YTD Oregon exports through February 2013 are up 3.0%
from a year ago.
• Computer and electronic products: -9.8%
• Agricultural products: +33.5%
• All other: 0.9%
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Oregon Exports
Oregon Exports, 3 MMA
$900
Millions
Millions
Oregon Exports, 3 MMA
$800
$700
$700
$600
$500
$600
Comp/Elec
$400
$400
Ag
$300
$300
All Other
$200
$500
$200
$100
$100
$0
$0
Jan-08
China / Malaysia
North America
Japan / Korea
Germ/UK/Nether
Taiwan/Vietnam/Sing/
Phil/HK/Indo
All Other
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
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Correcting the Jobs Data Again!
Index: Feb 2010=100
Private Sector Growth in Expansion
107
United States
Index, Feb 2010 = 100
106
Oregon, Official
Oregon, Prelim
105
104
103
102
101
100
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
Prelim May 2013 economic outlook uses clean CES data, no prelim benchmark data however…
Feb-13
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Recovery Spreading to Rural Areas
Regional Employment Growth
Share of Overall Gains
100%
95%
90%
85%
South Coast
SE Oregon
80%
Gorge
North Coast
75%
NE Oregon
C Oregon
70%
S Oregon
Valley
65%
Portland MSA
60%
55%
50%
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
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Leading Indicators
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Oregon Coincident Index Components
Oregon Economic Indexes (Jan 2005 = 100)
120
100%
115
90%
80%
110
70%
105
Index Value
60%
100
50%
95
40%
90
30%
85
Recession Probability (Right)
Coincident Index (Philadelphia Fed)
Oregon Index of Leading Indicators
UO Index of Economic Indicators
Total Nonfarm Employment
80
75
Jan-05
20%
10%
0%
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
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Drags on Economic Growth Are
Easing
Annual Percent Changes in Oregon
Oregon Housing Starts
Oregon State and Local Government Employment (Right)
40
4
30
3
20
2
10
1
0
0
-10
-1
-20
-2
-30
-3
-40
-4
-50
-5
2000
2005
2010
2015
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Detailed Industry Forecast
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13
14
15
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Here we go again!
Private Sector
Recession
BLS
Prelim Benchmark
1,460.0
1,440.0
1,420.0
1,400.0
1,380.0
1,360.0
1,340.0
1,320.0
1,300.0
1,280.0
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
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Medium Term Downgraded Slightly
Total Nonfarm
120
115
U.S. Previous
U.S.
Oregon Previous
Oregon Prelim
110
105
100
95
90
85
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
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Quote: On Financial Crisis and Our
Approach to Get Out of It
Will Rogers:
“If Stupidity Got Us
Into This Mess,
Why Can’t It Get
Us Out”
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Information for the presentation
draws from the Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
155 Cottage Street NE
Salem, OR 97301
(503) 378-3405
[email protected]
www.oregon.gov/das/oea
Social Media:
oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
Presented by
Dr. Thomas Potiowsky
Northwest Econoimc Research
Center
530A SW Mill Street
Portland, Oregon 97207
[email protected]
www.pdx.edu/NERC
@nercpdx
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