Transcript Chapter 1
Have you taken the latest quiz? When is your next paper due? If you are not sure, you need to Log into PAL A modified version of the powerpoint for Biology for a Changing World SECOND EDITION Lecture PowerPoint CHAPTER 1 Process of Science Probably not approved of by these guys Copyright © 2014 by W. H. Freeman and Company Major topics •Science & Scientific Method •Characteristics and organization of living things •Biology = Bio (“life”) + logy (“study of”) •Scientific study of life Important themes (You should understand this stuff for the test) 1. scientific method: how we test hypotheses 2. Good science vs. bad science 3. How much should you trust media reports of scientific studies? (hint: learn to read carefully) 4. Know real world examples of scientific method in clinical trials/human health? What is science? • A method to answer questions • use observations & experiments to make evidence-based conclusions • A way of knowing This guy’s definition “strictly adhering to a simple set of rules” 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Test ideas by experiment and observation Build on the ideas that pass the test Reject the ones that fail Follow the evidence wherever it leads Question everything Summary do we need to know this? •How we try to understand natural world a. What we can observe or measure the effects of b. There are things science cannot answer (pg. 4 & 13) •Goals – logical, objective, based on evidence Characteristics of Scientific Knowledge •Natural world – what we detect, observe or measure •Evidence based – experiments or observation •Peer review and independent validation •Open to evidence based challenge by anyone New evidence can change everything •Self correcting process The Bad News Scientists are human. •Mistakes •Fraud •Cheating How can you evaluate the evidence in media reports of scientific studies? Extraordinary Claims need Extraordinary proof Is the claim in the news what the researcher actually said Who paid for the research? How did it affect the researchers http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomchiversscience/100252700/when-drugcompanies-dont-publish-trials-real-people-die/ http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/30/business/breaking-the-seal-on-drug-research.html How can you evaluate the evidence in media reports of scientific studies? Too many Weasel Words Tests with small samples usually don’t prove anything How can you evaluate the evidence in media reports of scientific studies? Test subjects must be like population Control: were results due to what you were testing? Do scientists’ knowledge affect the results? How can you evaluate the evidence in media reports of scientific studies? use ALL the data, not just the results you like Can other people get same results if they repeat test Ongoing….not a one time thing (all ideas open to change when new evidence is found) What methods were used? • Ask: Was the science performed properly? Bad methods = bad data = bad conclusions What methods were used? • Use best evidence available • Ask: Was the science performed properly? How do scientists draw conclusions? Best explanation based on the evidence we have RIGHT NOW • Conclusion may be modified in the future • Science is a never-ending process The Peer Review Problem Scientific mistakes and fraud can only be detected if people a) See errors in the methodology of the research b) Try to duplicate the experiment without those mistakes (have evidence it doesn’t work as described) This doesn’t always happen (if reported results match everyone’s expectations, they probably won’t be checked) What we want What often happens About that peer review…. http://phylogenomics.blogspot.com/2012/02/2010-arsenic-found-in-dna-2012-we-never.html Peer review should not be considered a thumbs up / thumbs down process as you are suggesting here. And it should not be considered a one time event. It should be considered a continuous process and a sliding scale. Some things that get through the normal peer review process for papers are end up being retracted and many things that are presented prior to traditional peer review are fundamental new insights. Scientific results can be evaluated before, during and after the review that happens for a publication. Scientists do this all the time already - at conferences - in hallways - in lab meetings - on the phone - on skype - on twitter - at arXiv - in the shower - in classes - in letters - and so on. It is actually a disservice to science to annoint "peer review" as applied at some journals into something it is not. How to do GOOD science Be skeptical about results (even your own!!) If results seem AMAZING • Check your equipment • Talk to another scientist before running to the press. – Can they find problems w/ your experiment – Do they think your results seem reasonable • Key - Must try to prove false what you believe is true Scientific Method •A description of the scientific thought process •Not a ridged list of steps that all scientists must use all the time example: like learning to waterski Steps in the Scientific Method •Observation •Hypothesis •Making a prediction •Testing fish dying near factory factory chemicals kill fish if true, chemicals kill fish in lab Same water conditions for all (pH, temp, oxygenconcentration) Control Group no change in experimental variable why? Ensure results due to exp. variable •Results – support hypothesis? Science is a process: make an observation • Start with an interesting, informal observation • Often unreliable, untested • Anecdotal evidence Science is a process: formulate a testable question • Use observation to devise a question “ Does coffee help improve mental performance?” Science is a process: studying previous research • Read relevant literature • See current information on the subject of interest • Study peer-reveiwed scientific literature • What do reputable experts in field say? Science is a process: studying previous research • Peer review: review of an article by experts before publication • The plan: make sure authors correctly designed & interpreted their study • weeds out sloppy research Science is a process: forming scientific hypotheses • use information to formulate a scientific hypothesis • a testable and falsifiable explanation for a scientific observation or question “Caffeinated coffee improves memory.” Science is a process: forming scientific hypotheses testable : supported or rejected by carefully designed experiments or nonexperimental studies falsifiable: can be ruled out by data If-then predictions: if hypothesis is true, then… Science is a process: forming scientific hypotheses • Not all explanations are scientific hypotheses • An explanation that cannot be tested or is NOT a scientific explanation Science is a process: forming scientific hypotheses • A hypothesis is never proven • If false, it is rejected and no longer considered a possible answer to the original question • If the data support the hypothesis, it will be accepted until more testing and new evidence show otherwise “No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong” - Albert Einstein Science is a process: experimentation • Hypotheses can be tested using experimentation • An experiment is a carefully designed test • The results of an experiment either support or rule out a hypothesis Experiment: how to test hypothesis example: measure the effect of drinking coffee experimental group: experiences the experimental intervention or manipulation control group: experiences no experimental intervention don’t alter “independent variable” or manipulation Basis for comparison 2 groups in experiment • The control group receives a placebo A placebo is a fake treatment similar to experience of experimental groups Variables in experiment • independent variable what we change • dependent variable the results we measure • Analyzed in both the experimental and control groups Science should be based on evidence • our conclusions should be based on results that we measure How can we be sure conclusions are right? NEVER 100% sure We get more confident if other scientists repeat test and get same results Math: how certain we can be • Sample size is important • It is the number of experimental subjects or the number of times an experiment is repeated Big sample: Results are meaningful chance Small sample: Results could be chance Science is a process: drawing conclusions The larger the sample size, the more likely the results will have statistical significance. Statistical significance is a measure of confidence that the results obtained are “real,” rather than due to random chance. Publication: getting info out there Experimental results are published in peerreviewed journals. Traditional Print journal Open access Print journal “The widely held notion that high-impact publications determine who gets academic jobs, grants and tenure is wrong. Stop using it as an excuse.” http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/09/michael-eisen-plos-open-access-aaron-swartz The book is wrong!!! (Yes, this is nitpicking) A hypothesis may eventually be considered a will never become scientific theory. A theory is an explanation of the natural world that is strongly supported and widely accepted by scientists Support comes from repeated testing over several decades Far greater confidence in this explanation than in an educated guess One hypothesis does not become a theory by itself, but many hypothesis on a subject can be used to form a theory. Theories are more general (applies to many situations) Science is a process: scientific theory Science without experiments???? • Some questions cannot be tested through controlled experiments Astronomers can’t blow up a star • Use observation to find patterns and help answer questions • Epidemiology is the study of patterns of disease in populations Lucky star Science is a process: finding patterns • Observing patterns can show a consistent relationship or link, between variables • Correlation • Correlation between two variables does not prove that one variable causes the other Fewer coffee drinkers had Parkinson disease But: Correlation is not causation! Does not prove!!!!! Correlation ≠ cause Correlation ≠ cause Science is a process • Use a known correlation to design a controlled experimental study • Conduct a randomized clinical trial • Randomly chosen subjects used in control and experimental groups to test an independent variable Evaluating scientific information Data are often very complex and the public often receives them as isolated media headlines “linked to” Summary • Science = process: use studies to answer questions or test hypotheses. • observational studies or experiment results can support or rule out a hypothesis. • NEVER can have 100% certainty • future studies: new evidence may change our minds Extra stuff that is on 1st test • • • • • • • Properties of Life (pg. 24-25) Viruses (pg. 38) Taxonomy (382-384) Heterotrophs/autotrophs – 105 Natural selection (310-312) Endosymbiosis (57, 68-71) Autotrophs, heterotroph, photo synthesis & chemosynthesis (p.398) Not Happy with your grade? Not understanding the material? Remember that the TLCC has Free Biology Tutoring