Transcript Health Care
HEALTH CARE MIKE WALING ZHAO ZHOU AGENDA Sector Overview Business Analysis Economic Analysis Financial Analysis Valuation Analysis Recommendation SECTOR OVERVIEW Size of Sector: 91.2B S&P Breakdown vs. SIM Sector S&P 500 Weight SIM Weight +/- Consumer Discretionary 12.10% 12.93% 0.83% Consumer Staples 10.50% 13.54% 3.04% Energy 10.60% 14.15% 3.55% Financials 16.60% 14.11% -2.49% 12.80% 12.17% -0.63% Industrials 10.20% 7.86% -2.34% Information Technology 17.80% 17.34% -0.46% Materials 3.30% 1.71% -1.59% Telecommunication Services 2.80% 2.00% -0.80% Utilities 3.30% 3.96% 0.66% Cash 0.00% 0.22% 0.22% Health Care SECTOR OVERVIEW S&P Telecomm unication Materials Services 3% 3% Information Technolog y 18% SIM Utilities 3% Telecomm unication Materials Services 3% 3% Consumer Discretiona ry 12% Consumer Staples 10% Energy 11% Industrials 10% Health Care 13% Information Technolog y 18% Utilities 3% Consumer Discretiona ry 12% Consumer Staples 10% Energy 11% Industrials 10% Financials 17% Health Care 13% Financials 17% SECTOR OVERVIEW Industries • • • • • • • • • • Biotechnology HC-Distributors HC-Equipment HC-Facility HC-Managed Care HC-Services HC-Supplies Health Care Tech Life Science Tools Pharmaceuticals SECTOR OVERVIEW Major Companies: Major Companies Johnson & Johnson Pfizer Inc Merck and Co Inc Gilead Sciences Amgen Bristol-Myers Squibb AbbVie Inc Medtronic Ticker JNJ PFE MRK GILD AMGN BMY ABBV MDT Market Cap (B) 249.65 201.09 143.79 82.95 73.75 73.16 68.58 53.69 SECTOR OVERVIEW Performance – Quarter 6/30 SECTOR OVERVIEW Performance – Year-to-Date SECTOR OVERVIEW Performance vs. Other Sectors: YTD SECTOR OVERVIEW Performance vs. Other Sectors: Quarter ending 6/30 SECTOR OVERVIEW Industry Performance – YTD SECTOR OVERVIEW Industry Performance – Quarter Ending 6/30 BUSINESS ANALYSIS Porter’s Five Forces Scenario Analysis Threat Competition From Rivals Pricing, new R&D innovation, competing for same markets High Threat of New Entrants High barriers to entry, branding, capital and R&D intensive Low Power of Customers Customers will pay top dollar for treatmetents; Caveat -- if generics become avaible, power is diminished Medium Power of Suppliers Suppliers have little room for negotiations Low Threat of Substitutes For traditional treatments, very little substitutes Low BUSINESS ANALYSIS Business Cycle BUSINESS ANALYSIS Demographics – Aging Population • Developed economies are ageing rapidly • Increased need for medicines, health care facilities, and health care equipment ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Regression: S&P 500 vs. Health Care ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Real Government Purchases vs. Health Care ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CPI vs. Health Care ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CPI – Hospital and Related Services FINANCIAL ANALYSIS NET PROFIT MARGIN(RELATIVE TO S&P500) FINANCIAL ANALYSIS EBITDA MARGIN(RELATIVE TO S&P500) VALUATION SECTOR OVERALL Absolute (5 years) High Low Medium Current P/E Trailing 16.3 9.9 12.2 16 P/E Forward 15.7 10.0 12.0 15.7 P/B 3.4 2.2 2.8 3.4 P/S 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 P/CF 11.7 7.6 9.0 11.7 Relative to S&P500 High Low Medium Current P/E Trailing 1.0 0.68 0.9 1.0 P/E Forward 1.1 0.69 0.89 1.1 P/B 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 P/S 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 P/CF 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 VALUATION Pharmaceuticals(Trailing P/E relative to S&P500) VALUATION Biotechnology(Trailing P/E relative to S&P500) VALUATION HC-Equipment(Trailing P/E relative to S&P500) VALUATION HC-Distributors (Trailing P/E relative to S&P500) RECOMMENDATIONS RISK Legislation Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Patents Competition Mature market Large amount of capital requirements Competition between existing players RECOMMENDATIONS RISK Global Economy Uncertainty of future economy Global economy recession Future Possible Reformation Expensive healthcare system Best but inefficient RECOMMENDATIONS Given Ratios and expected returns, HC looks to be fairly valued to slightly overvalued • Keep current weight, or reduce by up to 50 BPS and allocate to higher potential sector • Perhaps Financials or Energy? QUESTIONS?