Transcript Document

Annika Stensson
Director
Research Communications
National Restaurant Association
Washington, D.C.
@WeRRestaurants
/RestaurantDotOrg
/NationalRestaurantAssociation
Restaurant.org/Research
1
Agenda
Overview
Economic Backdrop
Consumer Trends
Technology Trends
Food Trends
Wrap-Up
2
Industry
Overview
3
DEFINITION:
“Restaurant Industry”
“Food Away from Home”
All meals/snacks prepared away from
home, including all takeout meals and
beverages.
4
Restaurant Industry 2015
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
5
45 Years of Restaurant Industry
Sales (1971-2015)
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
6
An Economic Powerhouse
Annual sales are larger than 90% of the
world’s economies.
Sales will grow by $26 billion in 2015 –
more than double Hollywood’s annual
domestic box office sales.
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Foodservice Sales by Segment
Tableservice
Quickservice & Fast Casual
$220 billion
$213 billion
$201 billion
$193 billion
4.3%
2.9%
2014
2015
2014
Snack & Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars
$33 billion
$31 billion
Retail Hosts
$41 billion
$38 billion
5.7%
5.2%
2014
2015
2015
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2015
2014
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8
Restaurant Sales Growth in 2015
(Projected)
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
9
Restaurant Employment Growth
2015 to 2025
(Projected)
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
10
Where Do Consumers Spend?
SPENDING CATEGORY
PERCENT OF TOTAL
Housing
34%
Transportation
18%
Food
13%
Insurance/pensions
11%
Health care
7%
Entertainment
5%
Apparel and services
3%
Other
9%
Total
100%
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013 Consumer Expenditure Survey; National Restaurant Association
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Restaurant Industry’s Share
of the Food Dollar
1955
Present
1955: 25%
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2015: 47%
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Economic
Backdrop
13
2015 U.S Economic Outlook
Gradual improvement continues
INDICATOR
2014
2015
Real Gross Domestic Product
2.4%
3.4%
Real Disposable Personal Income
2.4%
3.1%
Consumer Price Index
1.7%
2.0%
Total U.S. Employment
1.9%
2.2%
Source: National Restaurant Association, projections as of December 2014
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15
Economy 2M Jobs Above Pre-Recession Peak
31 states have more jobs than before losses started in Feb. 2008
National average: 1.4% more jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Restaurants Added More Than
360,000 Jobs During 2014
Eating-and-drinking-place employment – change from previous month
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistic; figures are seasonally-adjusted
16
Consumer Confidence Remains Near
Post-Recession Highs
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Jan-98
Jan-00
Source: The Conference Board
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
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Gas Prices Fell Sharply in the Last
Half of 2014
Average price per gallon for regular gasoline
$4.50
Price per gallon
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
Down $1.49 Since
End of June
$2.50
$2.00
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
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Rising Food Costs is Top Challenge
DECEMBER 2012
DECEMBER 2014
DECEMBER 2013
The Economy
29%
Government
30%
Food Costs
31%
Government
24%
The Economy
21%
Government
20%
Food Costs
18%
Recruiting Employees
11%
Sales Volume
14%
Sales Volume
10%
Food Costs
10%
Recruiting Employees
13%
Sales Volume
10%
Recruiting Employees
5%
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Tracking Survey
The Economy
8%
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Wholesale Food Prices Post
Strongest Growth in 3 Years
Annual growth in Producer Price Index – All food
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
Menu Price Growth Remains
Moderate
Annual growth in Consumer Price Index – Food Away from Home
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
Higher-Income Households Prime
Restaurant Customers
Share of total restaurant spending by household income level
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013
22
International Travel and Tourism
Continues to Rise
International arrivals to the United States (in millions)
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
*Projected
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Consumer
Trends
24
Quality Time
Consumers who say dining out is a better
use of time than cooking and cleaning up.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
25
Unique Experiences
Consumers who say restaurants provide tastes
and flavors that aren’t easily duplicated at home.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Top Attributes for Choosing
a Restaurant
Good service
Food quality
Good value
Favorite items on the menu
Convenient location to home or work
Healthy menu items
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Noticing Healthful Options
Consumers who say there are more healthful
options on restaurant menus now than two
years ago.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Choosing Healthy Options
Consumers who say they are more likely to
choose a restaurant that offers healthy menu
options.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Actually Choosing Healthy Options
Consumers who say they are ordering more
healthful options in restaurants now than two
years ago.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Opting for Local Sourcing
Consumers who say they are more likely to
visit a restaurant that offers locally sourced
food items.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Eco-Friendly Matters
Consumers who say they are more
likely to visit a restaurant that offers
organic or environmentally friendly food.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
32
Adventurous Palates
Consumers who say they are more
adventurous in their restaurant food
choices now than two years ago.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Different Kind of Takeout
Consumers who say they would buy fresh,
uncooked food items from restaurants.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
34
Breakfast for Dinner
Consumers who wish restaurants served breakfast items all day
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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35
Technology
Trends
36
Tech Influences
Consumers who factor in technology when
choosing a restaurant.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
37
Smartphone/Tablet Ownership or
Usage
All adults
70%
18-34
90%
35-44
89%
45-54
62%
55-64
60%
65+
34%
Source: National Restaurant Association, October 2014
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Consumers More Likely to Use
Restaurant Technology
Compared to two years ago
Don't Use
12%
More Likely
35%
Less Likely
13%
Same
40%
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Restaurant Technology Usage
Percent of adults
Look up restaurant locations, directions and hours of
operation
Look at menus
Read reviews from apps or sites like Yelp and TripAdvisor
Use rewards or special deals
Order takeout or delivery directly from a restaurant’s
website or branded app
88%
70%
57%
54%
54%
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast – Base own/use smartphone/tablet
40
Restaurant Technology Usage
Percent of adults
Look up restaurant nutrition information
Make reservations
Pay for meals
Order takeout or delivery via an aggregate service like
Seamless or GrubHub
49%
43%
26%
22%
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast – Base own/use smartphone/tablet
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Technology Is Growing
 79% of consumers say tech options
increase convenience
 70% say tech options speed up
service
 70% say tech options increase order
accuracy
 37% of consumers report technology
makes restaurant visits and
ordering more complicated
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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What’s In It for Restaurateurs?
 45% of consumers say tech options
make dining out more fun
 35% say tech options make them
choose one restaurant over another
 34% say tech options make them dine
out or order takeout/delivery more often
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Food
Trends
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What’s Hot in 2015
TABLESERVICE RESTAURANTS
1) Local meat/seafood 6) New cuts of meat
2) Local produce
7) Hyper-local
3) Sustainability
8) Sustainable seafood
4) Healthy kids’ meals
9) Food waste reduction
5) Natural ingredients
10) Farm-branding
Source: National Restaurant Association, What’s Hot in 2015 chef survey
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What’s Hot in 2015
LIMITED-SERVICE RESTAURANTS
1) Gluten-free items
6) Gourmet grilled cheese
2) Sustainability
7) Build-your-own
3) Local produce
8) Healthy kids’ meals
4) Kids’ veggie sides
9) Local meat/seafood
5) Mini-desserts
10) Milk/juice in kids’ meals
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
46
What’s Hot in 2015
ALCOHOL
1) Artisan spirits
2) Local beer/wine/spirits
3) Onsite barrel-aged drinks
4) Regional signature cocktails
5) Culinary cocktails
Source: National Restaurant Association, What’s Hot in 2015 chef survey
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Movers & Shakers in 2015
WARMING TRENDS
Underutilized fish
Ethnic condiments
Ramen
Southeast Asian cuisine
Gourmet grilled cheese (QSR)
Mini-desserts (QSR)
Source: National Restaurant Association
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What’s Hot in 2015
UMBRELLA TRENDS
Local sourcing
Environmental sustainability
Nutrition/Kids’ nutrition
Ethnic cuisines and flavors
Source: National Restaurant Association
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Perennial Favorites in 2015
TABLESERVICE RESTAURANTS
1) Barbecue
6) Oatmeal
2) Italian cuisine
7) Comfort foods
3) Fried chicken
8) Fruit desserts
4) French toast
9) Pulled pork
5) Frying
10) Chicken wings
Source: National Restaurant Association, What’s Hot in 2015 chef survey
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Perennial Favorites in 2015
LIMITED-SERVICE RESTAURANTS
1) French fries
6) Hamburgers
2) Poultry items
7) Side salads
3) Bacon
8) Onion rings
4) Bottled water
9) Soft drinks
5) Beef items
10) Pizza
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Future Trends
TOP Developments : Food & Menu
There will be significant upgrades in product quality and
emphasis on “fresh.”
Local sourcing will become more prevalent.
Healthy eating will continue to grow.
There will be a greater demand for authentic items and
flavor profiles.
Fresh produce options will become more plentiful.
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Industry 2020
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Wrap-Up
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Americans Love Restaurants
Consumers who say they enjoy going to:
90%
66%
Restaurants
Grocery stores
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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Unfilled Demand
Consumers who are NOT dining out as often as
they would like
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2015 Restaurant Industry Forecast
55
Restaurant Operators Are More
Optimistic about Sales Growth
Operators’ outlook for sales in six months vs. same period previous year
Source: National Restaurant Association
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Key Takeaways
 Real sales growth for sixth consecutive year.
 Food cost growth will remain a challenge.
 While consumer confidence will improve, they will still be
managing their check and need “nudging.”
 Positive future despite challenges.
 More technology integration to aid productivity and boost
loyalty.
 Average Americans are turning into “foodies.”
 Local sourcing, environmental sustainability, nutrition
and ethnic cuisine are key menu trends.
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Annika Stensson
Director
Research Communications
National Restaurant Association
[email protected]
@WeRRestaurants
/RestaurantDotOrg
/NationalRestaurantAssociation
Restaurant.org/Research
58