Transcript CSU’s EPA-FUNDED PROGRAM ON “APPLYING SPATIAL AND
CSU’s EPA-FUNDED PROGRAM ON “APPLYING SPATIAL AND TEMPORTAL MODELING OF STATISTICAL SURVEYS TO AQUATIC RESOURCES”
N. SCOTT URQUHART RESEARCH SCIENTIST DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY
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OVERVIEW OF THIS TALK
WHO IS INVOLVED
EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS
RESPONSES FROM
CSU - Major Participants
Oregon State University
POTENTIAL FOR COOPERATION HERE
WHAT IS EMAP {MINIMZE THIS NOW}
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WHO IS INVOLVED?
Jay Breidt
Richard Davis
Jennifer Hoeting
Hari Iyer
Scott Urquhart
Dave Theobald - Natural Resources Ecology Lab
Robin Reich - Forest Science
Jim Loftis - Bioresources Engineering
Collaborators at OSU, SCCWRP, WQTI
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EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (RFA)
CONTENT REQUIREMENTS
RESEARCH IN STATISTICS
MANY OF US WOULD CALL THE REQUESTED “RESEARCH” ADAPTATION or DEVELOPMENT
TRAINING OF “FUTURE GENERATIONS” OF ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS
OUTREACH TO THE STATES and TRIBES
ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS
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EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (RFA) - continued
MAJOR ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENT
“… EACH OF THE TWO PROGRRAMS ESTABLISHED WILL INVOLVE COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH AT MULTIPLE, GEOGRAPHICALLY DIVERSE SITES.”
CLOSE COOPERATION BETWEEN TWO PROGRAMS
SPECIFICALLY TO AVOID DUPLICATION OF EFFORT
===> JOINT ANNUAL MEETING ++
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EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (RFA) - continued III
FUNDING LEVEL: $750K/YEAR/PROGRAM
THE TWO PROGRAMS:
DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED SURVEY METHODOLOGY - @ OSU
SPATIAL AND TEMPORTAL MODELING, INCORPORATING HIERARCHICAL SURVEY DESIGN, DATA ANALYSIS, MODELING - @ CSU
CHECK ON THE RFA @
http://es.epa.gov/ncerqa/rfa/aquastat01.html
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RESPONSE to RFA from CSU
INSTITUTIONS:
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY
STATISTICS
NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGY LAB
FOREST SCIENCE
BIORESOURCE AND AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING
OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY (PROGRAM 1, too)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATER RESEARCH PROJECT
WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY, INC
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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT
1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA
2. LOCAL INFERENCE
3. AQUATIC INDICATORS
4. OUTREACH
5. ADMINISTRATION/COORDINATION
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CSU PROPOSAL - APPROACH
TAKE EXISTING SETS OF
PROBABILITY &
NON-PROBABILITY DATA
START WORKING WITH THE DATA WITH A PERSPECTIVE OF DRAWING INFERENCES
IDENTIFY ISSUES WE DON’T KNOW HOW TO HANDLE
HAVE POST-DOCS AND PRE-DOCTORAL STUDENTS CONDUCT RESEARCH ON THESE TOPICS
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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT CONTINUED
1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA
FROM SURVEYS TO REMOTELY SENSED
POSSIBLY INCLUDING INFORMATION FROM “HAND-PICKED”SITES
JENNIFER HOETING
DAVIS, BREIDT, REICH, STEVENS (OSU), WEISBERG (SCCWRP), LEECASTER (INL)
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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT CONTINUED
2. LOCAL INFERENCE
SMALL AREA EST’M + DECONVOLUTION
JAY BREIDT
DAVIS, HOETING, GITELMAN (OSU)
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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT CONTINUED II
3. AQUATIC INDICATORS
DEVELOPING DATA TO USE IN SPATIAL ANALYSES
LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY
REGIONAL TAXONOMIC RICHNESS
DAVE THEOBALD, NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGY LAB
URQUHART, RITTER (SCCWRP)
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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT CONTINUED III
OUTREACH
“PROPOSALS SHOULD SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS THE EXTENSION OF EXPERTISE ON DESIGN AND ANALYSIS TO STATES AND TRIBES”
HARI IYER & NSU PREPARED THIS PART OF THE CSU RESPONSE
DAVIS, REICH,
JIM LOFTIS (BIORESOURCES ENGINEERING),
STEPHEN JOHNSON (WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY)
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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT CONTINUED III
5. ADMINISTRATION
INTEGRATION AND COORDINATION
URQUHART & DAVIS
STEVENS (OSU)
AQUATIC SUPPORT: HERLIHY & HUGHES (OSU)
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CSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIES APPROXIMATE ANNUAL LEVELS
POST DOCTORAL FELLOWS
DOCTORAL STUDENTS
FACULTY TIME
OTHER 2.5
2 ~ 1 FTE (12M)
SUBCONTRACT TO OSU ~ $120K
COMPUTING EQUIPMENT - ONE TIME =$20K
SUPPORT/TRAVEL AMPLE
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OSU COMPANION PROPOSAL
SIMILARILY STRUCTURED
MAJOR DIFFERENCE = FOCUS
DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED
OSU SUBCONTRACT TO CSU THE SAME SCALE AS CSU SUBCONTRACT TO OSU
BOTH PROGRAMS HAVE OTHER SUBCONTRACTORS THE FIRST YEAR
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WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’ “AQUATIC RESOURCES”?
THEY ARE THINGS LIKE
STREAMS
RIVERS
WETLANDS
LAKES & PONDS
ESTUARIES
PRAIRIE POTHOLES
NEAR COASTAL OCEANIC WATERS
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WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’ “AQUATIC RESOURCES”?
CONTINUED
FOR MOST AQUATIC RESOURCES,
THERE ARE MANY “SMALL” ONES
PROGRESSIVELY FEWER AS THEY GET BIGGER
INTEREST, BIOLOGICAL & SOCIETAL, TENDS TO STAY CONSTANT OR EVEN INCREASE WITH SIZE
SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING WOULD SELECT MOSTLY “SMALL” ONES, FEW BIG ONES.
IMPLICATION:
UNEQUAL PROBABILITY SAMPLING
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WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’ “AQUATIC RESOURCES”?
CONTINUED II
SPATIAL STATISTICS TENDS TO FOCUS ON TWO-DIMENSIONAL SPACE
STREAMS AND RIVERS ESSENTIALLY AMOUNT TO ONE-DIMENSIONAL OBJECTS IN TWO-SPACE
BUT MUCH LANDSCAPE INFORMATION IS COMPLETE COVERAGE IN TWO-SPACE
CHALLENGE:
MERGE THESE PERSPECTIVES
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DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVE
DEFINE THE POPULATION OF INTEREST
CONDUCT A PROBABILITY SURVEY OF IT
CAREFULLY DEFINE THE SAMPLING FRAME
VARIABLE PROBABILITY SELECTION OF SITES, BUT WITH SPATIAL BALANCE
CAREFULLY DEFINE RESPONSES TO BE EVALUATED
TRAIN FIELD CREWS WELL
MANAGE DATA WITH CARE AND AN “AUDIT TRAIL”
LEARN FROM PAST MISTAKES, THROUGHOUT
SEE A FEW ILLUSTRATIONS
DATA SETS TO BE USED
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AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKES SAMPLING MODEL - DISCRETE
TWO STEP SELECTION PROCESS
FIRST STEP = SPATIALLY SYSTEMATIC
EMAP = 1/64 EACH YEAR
FOUR YEARS ===> 1/16 AREA SAMPLE
SECOND STEP = PROBABILITY
INCLUSION PROB VARIED BY LAKE SIZE CLASS
SPATIAL RESTRICTION - MILD
CAN BE DESCRIBED FOR INTERESTED PEOPLE
TIME ESSENTIALLY THE SAME, EXCEPT AN ADDITIONAL 2/64 EXTRACTION WAS DONE
ONLY IN ITS AREAS OF INTEREST
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MAP OF SITES VISITED
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MAHA Study Design: Probability Survey
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OREGON - WESTERN PILOT
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OREGON WESTERN PILOT + DESCHUTES/JOHN DAY
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SELECTING SITES - ILLUSTRATION
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DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVE CONTINUED
IF DISCIPLINES LACK TOOLS, SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THEM
STATISTICS INCLUDED
EXAMPLE: EXTEND CONCEPTS OF SAMPLING FROM FINITE POPULATION TO SPATIALLY CONTINUOUS POPULATIONS
NATIONAL RESEARCH CENTER FOR STATISTICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT (~ $1M/YEAR)
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON PAST 5 YEARS NOW TO BE AT UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO
TWO PROGRAMS UNDER DISCUSSION HERE
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FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBES
STATES AND TRIBES MUST REPORT ON THE CONDITION OF ALL “WATERS” UNDER THEIR JURISTICTION
A REQUIREMENT OF SECTION 305b OF THE CLEAN WATER ACT
RESULTS IN BIANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS
STARTING IN 2004 NEW RECOMMENDED STANDARDS WILL REQUIRE THESE BE BASED ON PROBABILITY SAMPLING
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FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBES CONTINUED
PROJECT # 4 WILL HELP
IDENTIFY NEEDED SKILLS IN THE STATES & TRIBES
DEVELOP THE NEEDED SKILLS
IF POSSIBLE, WE HOPE TO TRANSMIT THE LEARNING MATERIALS IN WEB-COMPATIBLE DOCUMENTS
RECORDED ON A CD ROM USABLE AT ANY REMOTE SITE
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PROGRAM NEEDS from THIS LAB
INPUTS ON LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVES
REAL “COOPERATION”
ACCESS TO EXISTING RELEVANT GIS COVERAGES
SHORT TERM: MAHA/MAIA
COVERAGES
PRIMARY REMOTELY SENSED DATA
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