URBAN DEVELOPMENT

CLASS 1

FRIDAY, MARCH 3, 2006

Introduction

Session one

The Millenial Challenge

Session two

Trends and Outcomes

… for the first time in history, planning is confronted with the danger of unpredictable risks and global effects … … planning must become ‘reflexive’: it must reflect all possible impacts in a most circumspect manner …

Risk Society-Ulrich Beck

The Millennial Challenge

Two great milestone follow one another: two or three years after the millennium, for the first time in the history of humankind, a majority of the world’s six billion people will live in cities (UNCHS, 1996b as cited by Hall & Pfeiffer)

Industrialization (19 th century)

Urban Transformations

Agriculture Society



Industrial Society

Glasgow & London in 1870s (source: wikipedia.com) Garden City and the Three Magnets Theory by Ebenezer Howard

Here, without distinction of age or sex, careless of all decency, they are crowded in small and wretched apartments; the same bed receiving a succession of tenants until too offensive for their unfastidious senses.

(1832, James Phillips Kay, an Edinburgh doctor)

The Millenial Challenge

Fordism (post WW2)

Urban Transformations

Agriculture Society



Industrial Society (Manufacturing)

Along with this period a vast amount of suburbanization process was taking places. Rapid demand to house the people created social houses at the suburbs of Northern American and Western European cities.

No longer after, homogeneous low-density, car dependants suburbs were (and still are) created, stretching out for ‘liveable’ settlements.

The Millenial Challenge

Urban Transformations

De-industrialization (1980s) Industrial Society



Service Society Brownfield (Urban Wasteland)

Fisher Body 21 was the birthplace for the bodies of countless Cadillacs (Detroit)

Postindustrial Bilbao: The Reinvention of a New City Deindustrialization

is the process by which a country or region moves from a manufacturing-based economy to a service economy, and is marked by an increase in structural unemployment.

The Millenial Challenge

Urban Transformations

Globalization (Outsourcing-Footloose economy) Principal Urban Agglomerations of the World (as 28 Jan 2006)

1 Tokyo Japan 34,200,000 incl. Yokohama, Kawasaki, Saitama incl. Nezahualcóyotl, Ecatepec, Naucalpan 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Mexico City Seoul New York Sao Paulo Bombay Delhi Shanghai Los Angeles Osaka Jakarta Calcutta Cairo Manila Karachi Moscow Mexico South Korea USA Brazil India India China USA Japan Indonesia India Egypt Philippines Pakistan Russia 22,800,000 22,300,000 21,900,000 20,200,000 19,850,000 19,700,000 18,150,000 18,000,000 16,800,000 16,550,000 15,650,000 15,600,000 14,950,000 14,300,000 13,750,000 17 18 19 20 Buenos Aires Dacca Rio de Janeiro Beijing Argentina Bangladesh Brazil China 13,450,000 13,250,000 12,150,000 12,100,000 source: http://www.citypopulation.de/World.html

incl. Bucheon, Goyang, Incheon, Seongnam, Suweon incl. Newark, Paterson incl. Guarulhos incl. Kalyan, Thane, Ulhasnagar incl. Faridabad, Ghaziabad incl. Riverside, Anaheim incl. Kobe, Kyoto incl. Bekasi, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang incl. Haora incl. Al-Jizah, Shubra al-Khaymah incl. Kalookan, Quezon City incl. San Justo, La Plata incl. Nova Iguaçu, São Gonçalo

Outsourcing jobs

“Tesco, the UK's leading supermarket chain, has said it is to move 420 jobs to India from the UK. “ (BBC, 2004) Shanghai, China

The Millenial Challenge

It took the United States and Western Europe 200 years to go through the Industrial Revolution. Nations such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan took about 25 years to become industrial nations. The Chinese city of Shenzhen? Try six months. That’s how long it takes for a non-literate farm worker to migrate to the city and start working on some of the most sophisticated machinery in the world. Twenty years ago, Shenzhen was all rice paddies and salt ponds —with a population of 20,000, at best. Today, Shenzhen has a multimillion population churning out products at breakneck speed.

Globalization & Technology

Time and Space Compression (David Harvey) New Geography of Capital (Saskia Sassen) Informational Society (Manuel Castells)

Shrinking Urban Area?

Urban Explosion by 2015…

358 ‘million cities’ ; no less than 153 in Asia 27 ‘

mega cities

’; 18 will be in Asia

(UN Prediction-UNCHS 1996)

Nanjing Road, Shanghai

The Millenial Challenge

Source: National Geographic (photo by: Stuart Franklin)

The destiny of migrants is usually not to go back .

They do not see the journey to the city as readily reversible.

Going to the city is seen as a success by the family, and the move as a kind of commitment. They feel compelled to like the place where they must now make their life, and to show they are successful.

(Jeremy Seabrook about women garment workers in Dhaka)

Urban Poor

“more than half of the world’s poor are living in urban areas. Approx. 90% of poor households in Latin America, 40% in Africa and 45% in Asia will be in urban areas by the year 2000 (UNDP, 1995)

The Millenial Challenge

Development Disparities

Logistical Problems

Tanjung Priok, Jakarta

Marginality

^ Muara Rapak Balikpapan Fisherman village Cambaya, Makassar>>

“Humanity has not been down this road before; there are no precedents, no guideposts” (Hall & Pfeiffer)

Urban Essentials Sustainable Urban Development

Sustainable Urban Economy & Society :

-Economic growth -Income distribution (social disparities) -Democratic participation -Empowerment (Gender & underage labour force)

Sustainable Urban Shelter & Access:

-Adequate Housing Policy -Infrastructure provision -Resource-conserving mobility

Sustainable Urban Environment & Life:

-Stable ecosystem -Liveable City -Poverty vs good environment -Global policy (Clean Development Mechanism/CDM)

Sustainable Urban Democracy:

-Community Participation in Planning and Implementation -Decentralization and Local Autonomy

The Millenial Challenge

Trends and Outcomes: The Urban World of 2025

The future of mankind depends on the quality of life in our cities All that is culture has come out of cities. Cities have the potential to civilize and brutalize their citizens (Sir Richard Rogers)

Basic Driving Forces

(Hall & Pfeiffer)

Demographic:

Explosion and Implosion

Economic:

Global – Local interface

Social:

Economic change and social evolution

Governance & Political Will

(Policy)

Environmental:

Challenges to Urban Environment

Trends & Outcomes

Demographic:

Explosion and Implosion Household Transformation Housing Provision Workforces  Skill labor  Cost & tax burden  Pension policy Most of today’s developing countries still have a long way to go before they reach the proportions seen in European countries, but they may reach these proportions more quickly because their demographic transition has been quicker. (UNFPA)

Sweden 84 years Singapore 18 years, Republic of Korea 20 years, Japan 20 years, China 30 years Trends & Outcomes

Economic:

Global – Local interface [De]industrialization  Footloose Economy (New Economy Geography) Culture & Creative Industries  creation of Creative Class (Richard Florida) Formal vs Informal Economy  (added value orientation) capital & knowledge intensive vs labour intensive Cities everywhere are highly and increasingly tied into a system of

global

competition —even though everywhere, most of their people work for

local

markets. In fact urban markets are of two kinds: those connected with outside markets, exchanging tradable goods, and those providing local goods.

Trends & Outcomes

Social:

Economic change and social evolution

UNEMPLOYMENT WOES

9.2% unemployment rate for people of French origin 14% unemployment for people of foreign origin (adjusted for education) 5% overall unemployment for university graduates 26.5% unemployment for "North African" university graduates

Source: Insee (bbc.com)

Rapid Growth and Rapid Decline Earnings and Income Inequality Occupational Change Public Policies and Social Changes Urban Poverty

15 days social unrest in suburbs of Paris

Trying to put social change into a framework of sociological or statistical analysis is like biological analysis, in which people are dissected and described in terms of bones and skin or organs without regard for the fact that hey are living human beings. The key, in all analysis of social change, must be first to bring out the general trends and forces, but then to demonstrate their effects in individual cities with their own history, economy, cultures and traditions. (Hall & Pfeiffer)

Trends & Outcomes

Environmental:

Challenges to Urban Environment

Global Concern Managing Urbanity:

Cities as Problems and Opportunities for Environment Choices of Investment No Cities is Well Prepared for a Sustainable Future (Hall & Pfeiffer)

Clean Development Mechanism (Kyoto Protocol, Dec 1997)

"

The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 (but note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut)...

"

Trends & Outcomes

Urban Growth and Change

(Hall & Pfeiffer) Cities in Competition:

a new concept of location and taxonomy of cities (Global Cities and the rest) Global significance and local demands Global winners and losers; international real-estate market sourcing

Changes of Urban System:

..of developed world

Deconcentration & Reconcentration Old and New Downtowns (Edge Cities) Contribution of Transportation Development

...of developing world

Explosive Growth (Extended Urban Regions): Large Urban Projects Increasing Informal Sector activities (informalized urbanization) Neglected problems of smaller cities (service centers, i.e. Purwakarta, Cianjur, Sumedang)

Trends & Outcomes

Welcome to Urban Development Issues

Trends & Outcomes