Transcript Document

World Investment Prospects
Survey 2009-2011
Main results of an UNCTAD survey
among large TNCs
Division on Investment and Enterprise
UNCTAD
EMBARGO
The contents of this press release and the related Report
must not be quoted or summarized in the print,
broadcast or electronic media before
22 July 2009, 17:00 GMT
(13:00 New York, 19:00 Geneva)
Purpose and methodology

Purpose: identify the shape of FDI flows for the coming
three years, as well as the factors affecting the
investment decisions of the largest TNCs
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Methodology: survey roughly 2,000 of the largest 5,000
non-financial TNCs – about 240 respondents
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Work carried out directly by an UNCTAD team with the
collaboration of a panel of international experts
specialized in locational issues
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Main findings of this year’s survey

Most TNCs plan to reduce their FDI in 2009, with some improvement
seen in 2010, and a substantial recovery in 2011.
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While TNCs throughout the world are affected, those from developing
Asia are slightly more optimistic than average regarding FDI prospects.
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FDI plans in business-cycle sensitive industries have so far been the
most affected by the crisis; according to respondents, FDI prospects are
better in service industries than in manufacturing.

TNCs’ investment plans in Western Europe and North America have
been the most impacted by the crisis; increasing preference of TNCs for
developing economies, especially in Asia
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Sharp impact of the crisis
on TNCs’ FDI plans
Impact of various aspects of the crisis on companies' investment plans 2009-2011
(Per cent of responses to the UNCTAD survey)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
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Most TNCs plan to reduce their FDI in 2009,
with an improvement foreseen in 2010,
and substantial recovery in 2011
Respondent companies' FDI expenditures plans, 2009–2011, as compared to 2008
(Per cent of responses)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
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Pessimism with regards to 2009 FDI
prospects gives rise to optimism for 2011
Distribution of the degree of optimism/pessimism regarding the medium-term FDI
outlook, globally and for the respondent company
(Average number of responses)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
Note: - 2 = very pessimistic; + 2 = very optimistic.
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TNCs from developing Asia are slightly
more optimistic than others for 2011
TNCs' views on global FDI prospects, by home region, 2009–2011
(Average number of responses)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
Note: -2 = very pessimistic; + 2 = very optimistic
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Worsening of the crisis and rising
protectionism could still temper FDI plans
Importance of risk factors for FDI decisions, 2009-2011
(Average value of responses to the UNCTAD survey)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
Note: -4 = large negative impact very likely; 0 = negligible impact very likely.
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The desire to internationalize continues to
provide impetus for further FDI
Companies' level of internationalization by various indicators, 2008 and 2011
(Per cent of responses)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
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FDI plans in business-cycle sensitive industries
have been the most affected by the crisis
Impact of the economic downturn on TNCs’ investment plans, 2009–2011, by
sector/industry
(Average number of responses)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
Note: 0 = no effect; - 2 = very negative effect.
a
Excludes pharmaceuticals.
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FDI prospects are globally better
in the service industries than in manufacturing
Expected evolution of companies' FDI in 2011 since 2008, by industry
(Average number of responses)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
Note: -4=very sharp decrease (more than 50%); +4 = very large increase (more than 50%).
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Western Europe and North America have been so
far the host regions most affected by the
downsizing in TNCs’FDI plans
Regions/groups most affected by the reduction in TNCs' investment plans for 2009–2011
(Average number of responses)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
Note: Figures may add up to more than 100% due to possible multiple responses.
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Increased preference of TNCs for developing
economies, especially Asia
Investment preferences, by host region/group, 2008 and 2011
(Average number of responses)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
Note: 1 = marginal or nil; 5 = very important.
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BRICs dominate the top 5 most attractive
economies for FDI
The 15 most attractive economies for the location of FDI, 2009-2011
(Per cent of responses)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
Note: Figures in the parenthesis indicate the ranking in the previous survey.
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Size and growth of market are the major
location determinants
Locational criteria in order of importance, 2009-2011
(Per cent of responses)
Source: UNCTAD survey.
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Additional information is available online at:
http://www.unctad.org
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