Transcript einstitute.worldbank.org

Strategic Planning for
Climate-Smart Agriculture
How to get ready for worsening
weather, while growing local
solutions for a better global climate
A 2-part presentation
1. Why is a landscapes approach best?
2. How to address different needs &
priorities
Douglas White R4D&C
With contributions from:
Peter Minang, ASB of the CGIAR
Pablo Benitez, Gerald Kapp ,WBI
Strategic Planning for
Climate-Smart Agriculture
Part 1. Why is a landscapes approach best?
A rationale for seeing things differently
Preface:
• The potential for agriculture to mitigate
climate change
• The goal and objectives of CSA
Contents:
• What is a landscapes approach?
• Why do we need a landscapes
approach?
Background: Agriculture causing Climate Change
• Agriculture is responsible for almost half
of all human-related CH4 and N2O
emissions
• By 2030, these annual emissions are
projected to substantially increase
– N2O up by 35-60%
– CH4 up by 60%
Source:IPCC, 2007
Background: Agriculture-related GHG Emitting Activities
25% of total GHG emissions in 2004
Agriculture
Forestry
Other
Source: Smith, et al., 2007
Background: Agriculture-related GHG Emitting Activities
25% of total GHG emissions
Agriculture & forest activities
contributing to climate change in 2004
Manure
Other
Forest
conversion
Rice
Burning
Agriculture
Cattle
Forestry
Other
Fertilization
Source: Smith, et al., 2007
Smith, et al. 2007 DB Research 2011
The potential role of agriculture in mitigating climate change
Agriculture
Forestry
• Agriculture is
expected to
contribute 18% of
total GHG emission
reductions
Other
Sources of expected GHG
emission reductions
Source: Smith, et al., 2007.
• Together with better
forest management,
the two sources are
33% of the total
abatement potential
Background: From where agriculture contributions could come
Megatons CO2e/year
0
500
1000
Americas
Most potential
agricultural GHG
improvement is
in developing
regions
Africa
Asia
Europe
Carribean
Central
South
Eastern
Northern
Middle
Southern
Western
East
Southeast
Southern
Central
Western
Russian Fed.
Eastern
Northern
Southern
Western
North America
Oceania
Smith, et al. 2007, DB Research 2011
What is Climate-Smart Agriculture?
CSA is agriculture that
• increases yields (poverty reduction & food
security),
• makes yields more resilient in the face of
worsening weather conditions
(adaptation), and
• transforms the farm into a solution to the
climate change problem (mitigation).
(World Bank , 2012)
What is Climate-Smart Agriculture?
CSA is
is multiple objective goal.
a process involving many types of people
a negotiated effort
a moving target as capabilities improve.
What is a landscape?
An area, as perceived by
people, whose character is
the result of the action and
interaction of natural
and/or human factors.
(European Landscape
Convention, 2000)
Photo: A. Vidal
What is a landscape?
An area, as perceived by
people, whose character is
the result of the action and
interaction of natural
and/or human factors.
(European Landscape
Convention, 2000)
Not defined by a specific area
- but by areas with similar
functions
Photo: C. Diewald
What are the functions of a landscape?
farming
ranching
logging
mining
• Economic
• Environmental
• Social
Adapted from IAASTD, 2008
water & wildlife
soil fertility & clean air
carbon storage
cultural traditions
markets
policies
Photo: R. Ritzema
Landscape functions and perspectives
Macro
Geography
Continent
Meso
Basin/
valley
Micro
Watershed/
Catchment
Field, Forest
Landscape functions and perspectives
Economic
Continent
National
market
Basin/
valley
Regional
market area
Watershed/
Catchment
Local harvest
& market area
Micro
Meso
Macro
Geography
Field, Forest
Farm
Field/Pasture
Geography
Economic
Government
administration
Culture
Continent
National
market
Country
Nation
Basin/
valley
Regional
market area
State/Department
Local harvest
& market area
County/District
Meso
Macro
Landscape functions and perspectives
Micro
Watershed/
Catchment
Field, Forest
Farm
Field/Pasture
Town
Communities
People/Tribe
Community
Family
Macro
Landscape functions and perspectives
Geography
Economic
Government
administration
Culture
Continent
National
market
Country
Nation
Meso
Basin/
valley
Micro
Watershed/
Catchment
Field, Forest
Biome
Regional
market area
State/Department
Local harvest
& market area
County/District
Farm
Field/Pasture
Ecology
Town
Communities
People/Tribe
Community
Family
Ecosystem
Macro
Landscape functions and perspectives
Geography
Economic
Government
administration
Culture
Continent
National
market
Country
Nation
Meso
Basin/
valley
Micro
Watershed/
Catchment
Field, Forest
State/Department
Local harvest
& market area
County/District
Field/Pasture
Area
Biome
Regional
market area
Farm
Ecology
Town
“Greater
Landscapes”
~ 1,000,000 ha
Communities
People/Tribe
Community
Family
“Smaller
Landscapes”
~ 100 ha
Ecosystem
What is a landscape?
For Climate Smart Agriculture:
A landscape is a land area of
inter-related
• social traditions,
• economic activities and
• environmental services
that new policies and
investments can change.
What is a landscapes approach?
Environmental
It is a way of seeing a
landscape differently at the same time.
By thinking of:
Agriculture with
Natural resources
Air and Climate
Soils and Water
Biodiversity and forests
What is a landscapes approach?
Social
It is a way of seeing a
landscape differently at the same time.
By thinking of:
Agriculture with
Policies & Traditions
Livelihood customs
Laws and regulations
Representative organizations
Participation in policy processes
What is a landscapes approach?
Economic
It is a way of seeing a
landscape differently at the same time.
Improved crops, animals and trees
By thinking of:
Agriculture with Natural
Technologies & Markets
New and more products for home and sale
Credit for investments, reduced financial risks
Why a landscapes approach?
Traditional economic sector approaches do not
recognize interactions between: agriculture –
forestry – water – energy use – settlements –
infrastructure, etc.
A landscapes approach:
1. Helps to understand who participates in CSA
and how they may affected – positively and
negatively.
2. Identifies the essential efforts required to
achieve substantial changes in agricultural
practices.
3. Provides a way to scale up project-based
initiatives into a coordinated national program.
How a landscapes approach can work
Environmental
Natural resource
management
instead of
extraction and
degradation
Better management:
Soil fertility – crop rotations, fertilizers, trees
and ground covers
Woodlots and water storage
More carbon & biodiversity
How a landscapes approach can work
Social
Empowered people
and fair policies
Train and build capacity:
instead of
threatened cultures
and ineffective
regulations
Crop, soil, forest, animal, water management
Community organization, negotiation skills
Improved legal framework and
information management
Greater participation, empowerment
How a landscapes approach can work
Economic
Better technologies
and new markets
instead of
poor harvests and
few opportunities
Research and extension to improve
crops, animals, water, soils and trees
Market intelligence
Mechanisms and agreements to compensate
providers of environmental services
Financial mechanisms for upfront investments
A landscapes approach to CSA: Rationale
Identifies the processes of change
needed of
• Policies & traditions
• Technologies & markets
so that better
• Natural resource management
Becomes viable and in best
interest of local and global
communities.
Strategic Planning for
Climate-Smart Agriculture
Why processes? With a change in
policies, rarely does everyone agree
and benefit equally.
Next section:
How to address different
needs and priorities
Strategic Planning for
Climate-Smart Agriculture
Part 2. How to address different needs
and priorities
Analytical tools for strategic planning of CSA
This section will cover:
Key steps of a strategic plan for CSA
• Envision, Review, Identify, Plan, Re-examine
• Performance criteria using a landscapes
approach
Synergies and trade-offs with CSA:
• What are synergies and trade-offs?
• Why analysis is important
Other tools to plan CSA landscapes
Summary
CSA Strategy and Planning
Key steps:
1
Envision goals
2 Review contexts
3
Identify actions
4
Plan
5
Re-examine
What is the desired conditions of the landscapes? For CSA:
• increase yields (poverty reduction & food security),
• make yields resilient in the face of climate extremes (adaptation),
• make the farm a solution to the climate change (mitigation).
CSA Strategy and Planning
Key steps:
1
Envision goals
2 Review contexts
3
Identify actions
4
Plan
5
Re-examine
What is the current situation?
What are the problems/gaps and why?
Develop a evaluation framework of landscapes, with performance
criteria for:
a) environmental sustainability
b) social equity
c) economic growth
Diagnose these “landscapes” to better understand these contexts
simultaneously.
Performance Criteria
Traditions &
Policies
Social Equity
•Fair opportunities
Resource rights and legal framework
•Self-determination
Participation and influence in policy process
•Cultural identity
Livelihood traditions, community social capital
Performance Criteria
Traditions &
Policies
Technologies &
Markets
• Agriculture and forest
Social Equity
•Fair opportunities
• Inputs and capacities
•Self-determination
• Processing & postharvest
•Cultural identity
Economic growth
Crops, animals, environmental services
Skills, water, fertilizers, financial services
Storage, processing, transport, information
Resource rights and legal framework
Participation and influence in policy process
Livelihood traditions, community social capital
Performance Criteria
Natural resources
Technologies &
Markets
Environmental Sustainability
• Climate
Emission reduction, carbon stock increase
• Soils
Fertility, health
• Water
Quality, flow regulation
• Biodiversity
Traditions &
Policies
Plants & animals
• Agriculture and forest
Social Equity
•Fair opportunities
• Inputs and capacities
•Self-determination
• Processing & postharvest
•Cultural identity
Economic growth
Crops, animals, environmental services
Skills, water, fertilizers, financial services
Storage, processing, transport, information
Resource rights and legal framework
Participation and influence in policy process
Livelihood traditions, community social capital
CSA Strategy and Planning
Key steps:
1
Envision goals
2 Review contexts
3
Identify actions
4
Coordinate plan
5
Re-examine
What actions must be taken to close the gaps in goods & services?
What conditions are essential for success?
CSA Strategy and Planning
Key steps:
1
Envision goals
2 Review contexts
3
Identify actions
4
Coordinate plan
5
Re-examine
Example CSA practices:
increase soil carbon storage:
improve crop and grazing land management
restore cultivated soils and degraded lands;
reduce CH4 emissions:
improve manure management
reduce N2O emissions:
improve nitrogen fertilizer application techniques
replace fossil fuel use:
establish energy crops;
improve energy efficiency;
mulch farming, conservation tillage, cover cropping and
recycling of bio-solids.
Incentives and policies to foster investments
Payments for environmental services (e.g., carbon, water)
Grants, loans, rotating credit arrangements
Fiscal: tax/tariff reductions
Insurance against harvest losses
Certification and product price premia
(Adapted from: FAO, 2008; CCAFS, 2012)
CSA Strategy and Planning
Key steps:
1
Envision goals
2 Review contexts
3
Identify actions
4
Coordinate plan
5
Re-examine
What investments are required to implement the activities?
What are the roles and responsibilities of organizations?
CSA Strategy and Planning
Key steps:
1
Envision goals
Political administrations (national,
sub-national)
Environment
ministry
2 Review contexts
NGOs
Export
ministry
3
CSA
Identify actions
CBOs
4
5
Coordinate plan
Re-examine
Private
industry
Agriculture
ministry
Transport
ministry
Energy ministry
Finance
ministry
CSA Strategy and Planning
Key steps:
1
Envision
2
Review
3
Identify
4
Plan
5
Re-examine
What are the likely and unexpected outcomes of CSA?
Potential CSA performance
Synergies
and
These concepts are not opposites
Trade-offs
Potential CSA performance
Synergy
+
–
Co-benefit
The interaction of two or more
activities/inputs with a combined
effect greater than the sum of
their individual effects
1+1 > 2
positive interaction
Additional objectives are
attainable without extra effort
or input
Overlooked necessary
condition
Trade-off
1+1 < 2
negative interaction
1+0 = 1+1
Win-win
Not all objectives are attainable
at the same time, and/or a gain
towards one comes with a loss to
another
1 > 1-1
Win-lose
Potential CSA performance
Synergy
+
–
Co-benefit
The interaction of two or more
activities/inputs so that their
combined effect is greater than
the sum of their individual effects
1+1 > 2
positive interaction
Additional objectives are
attainable without extra effort
or input
Overlooked necessary
condition
Trade-off
1+1 < 2
negative interaction
1+0 = 1+1
Win-win
Not all objectives are attainable
at the same time, and/or a gain
towards one comes with a loss to
another
1+1 = 2-1
Win-lose
Potential CSA performance
Synergy
+
–
Co-benefit
The interaction of two or more
activities/inputs so that their
combined effect is greater than
the sum of their individual effects
1+1 > 2
positive interaction
Additional objectives are
attainable without extra effort
or input
Overlooked necessary
condition
Trade-off
1+1 < 2
negative interaction
1+0 = 1+1
Win-win
Not all objectives are attainable
at the same time, and/or a gain
towards one comes with a loss to
another
1+1 = 2-1
Win-lose
Trade-offs and co-benefits with
proposed GHG mitigation measures
Climate effects
CO2
CH4
N20
Crop management
Grazing management
Soil management
Restoration degraded lands
Livestock management
Manure/biosolid management
Adapted from Smith, et al., 2007
Bio-energy
Trade-offs and co-benefits with
proposed GHG mitigation measures
Adapted from Smith, et al., 2007
Climate effects
CO2
CH4
N20
Crop management
Agronomic
Nutrient
Tillage/residue
Water
Rice
Agroforestry
Set-asides
Grazing management
Grazing intensity
Fertilization
Nutrient
Fire prevention
New species
Soil management
Avoid wetland drainage
Restoration degraded lands
Erosion control, amendments
Livestock management
Improved feeding
Dietary additives
New breeds
Manure/biosolid management
Improved storage/handing
Anaerobic digestion
Nutrient application efficiency
Bio-energy
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proposed GHG mitigation measures
Soils
Water
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Climate effects
N20
CH4
CO2
Adapted from Smith, et al., 2007
Crop management
Agronomic
Nutrient
Tillage/residue
Water
Rice
Agroforestry
Set-asides
Grazing management
Grazing intensity
Fertilization
Nutrient
Fire prevention
New species
Soil management
Avoid wetland drainage
Restoration degraded lands
Erosion control, amendments
Livestock management
Improved feeding
Dietary additives
New breeds
Manure/biosolid management
Improved storage/handing
Anaerobic digestion
Nutrient application efficiency
Bio-energy
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Trade-offs and co-benefits with proposed GHG mitigation measures
Climate effects
CO2
CH4
N20
Performance depends on:
• required investments
and payback potential
• how policies and
incentives are targeted
Crop management
Agronomic
Nutrient
Tillage/residue
Water
Rice
Agroforestry
Set-asides
Grazing management
Grazing intensity
Fertilization
Nutrient
Fire prevention
New species
Soil management
Avoid wetland drainage
Restoration degraded lands
Erosion control, amendments
Livestock management
Improved feeding
Dietary additives
New breeds
Manure/biosolid management
Improved storage/handing
Anaerobic digestion
Nutrient application efficiency
Bio-energy
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Soils
Water
Social
Economic
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Why analysis of synergies, necessary conditions, and co-benefits and
tradeoffs is important at landscape scale
Helps to:
• better understand the potential of
mitigation measures and their
complex impacts
•
identify the extra efforts and
coordination required to minimize
tradeoffs and avoid potential pitfalls
•
structure a comprehensive analysis,
whereby CSA policies, investments
and changes have understandable
effects on environmental – social –
economic goals.
Tools for analyzing CSA initiatives within landscapes
• Performance indicators
• Participatory approaches
• Quantitative modeling
ASB Matrix
Example: Pucallpa, Peru Amazon
Evaluation criteria
Global environment
Land useLand uses
Forest
Logged forest
Cocoa
Oil palm
Long fallow agriculture
Short fallow agriculture
Improved pasture
Traditional pasture
Unit (per ha)
Agronomic
sustainability
National policy
Carbon
Soil bulk Available Returns to
Biodiversity
storage
density Phosphorus
land
250
123
43
41
20
14
5
2
tC,
AG,timeaveraged
users defined
units of 10
63
1.2
analysis66and criteria
1.2
10
27
36
26
12
23
plant
species
richness
Employment
Smallholder
Returns to
land
73
122
17
4734
42
1,247
99
1.25
15
302
27
scientists
devised
metrics466
and conducted
1.3
15
32
measurements
that fill cells
1.4
10
1069
7
1.45
5
553
8
g/cm3
ppm
45
84
296
156
197
209
6
-11
NPV 30y, workdays
NPV 30y,
5% discount per year 15% discount
White, et al. 2006, 2011
Based on Tomich, et al. 1998.
ASB Matrix
Example: Pucallpa, Peru Amazon
Evaluation criteria
Global environment
Land useLand uses
Forest
Logged forest
Cocoa
Oil palm
Long fallow agriculture
Short fallow agriculture
Improved pasture
Traditional pasture
Unit (per ha)
Agronomic
sustainability
National policy
Carbon
Soil bulk Available Returns to
Biodiversity
storage
density Phosphorus
land
250
123
43
41
20
14
5
2
tC,
AG,timeaveraged
63
66
27
1.2
1.2
36
26
12
23
1.25
1.3
1.4
1.45
15
15
10
5
g/cm3
ppm
plant
species
richness
10
10
17
73
122
4734
1,247
302
466
1069
553
Smallholder
Employment
42
99
27
32
7
8
Returns to
land
45
84
296
156
197
209
6
-11
NPV 30y, workdays
NPV 30y,
5% discount per year 15% discount
White, et al. 2006, 2011
Based on Tomich, et al. 1998.
ASB Matrix
Example: Pucallpa, Peru Amazon
Evaluation criteria
Global environment
Land useLand uses
Forest
Logged forest
Cocoa
Oil palm
Long fallow agriculture
Short fallow agriculture
Improved pasture
Traditional pasture
Unit (per ha)
Agronomic
sustainability
National policy
Carbon
Soil bulk Available Returns to
Biodiversity
storage
density Phosphorus
land
250
123
43
41
20
14
5
2
tC,
AG,timeaveraged
63
66
27
1.2
1.2
36
26
12
23
1.25
1.3
1.4
1.45
15
15
10
5
g/cm3
ppm
plant
species
richness
10
10
17
73
122
4734
1,247
302
466
1069
553
Smallholder
Employment
42
99
27
32
7
8
Returns to
land
45
84
296
156
197
209
6
-11
NPV 30y, workdays
NPV 30y,
5% discount per year 15% discount
White, et al. 2006, 2011
Based on Tomich, et al. 1998.
ASB Matrix
Example: Pucallpa, Peru Amazon
Evaluation criteria
Global environment
Land useLand uses
Forest
Logged forest
Cocoa
Oil palm
Long fallow agriculture
Short fallow agriculture
Improved pasture
Traditional pasture
Unit (per ha)
Agronomic
sustainability
National policy
Carbon
Soil bulk Available Returns to EmployBiodiversity
Other measures
storage
density Phosphorus
land
ment
250
123
43
41
20
14
5
2
tC,
AG,timeaveraged
63
66
27
1.2
1.2
10
10
17
can be
73 used such
as: 122
•Soil
structure42
4734
•Nutrient
export
1,247
99
36
26
12
23
1.25
1.3
1.4
1.45
15
15
10
5
302
27
466
32
Participatory
soil
1069 measures
7
quality
8
can 553
also be used
g/cm3
ppm
plant
species
richness
Smallholder
Returns to
land
45
84
296
156
197
209
6
-11
NPV 30y, workdays
NPV 30y,
5% discount per year 15% discount
White, et al. 2006, 2011
Based on Tomich, et al. 1998.
ASB Matrix
Example: Pucallpa, Peru Amazon
Evaluation criteria
Global environment
Land useLand uses
Forest
Logged forest
Cocoa
Oil palm
Long fallow agriculture
Short fallow agriculture
Improved pasture
Traditional pasture
Unit (per ha)
Agronomic
sustainability
National policy
Carbon
Soil bulk Available Returns to
Biodiversity
storage
density Phosphorus
land
250
123
43
41
20
14
5
2
tC,
AG,timeaveraged
63
66
27
1.2
1.2
36
26
12
23
1.25
1.3
1.4
1.45
15
15
10
5
g/cm3
ppm
plant
species
richness
10
10
17
73
122
4734
1,247
302
466
1069
553
Smallholder
Employment
42
99
27
32
7
8
Returns to
land
45
84
296
156
197
209
6
-11
NPV 30y, workdays
NPV 30y,
5% discount per year 15% discount
White, et al. 2006, 2011
Based on Tomich, et al. 1998.
ASB Matrix
Example: Pucallpa, Peru Amazon
Evaluation criteria
Global environment
Land useLand uses
Forest
Logged forest
Cocoa
Oil palm
Long fallow agriculture
Short fallow agriculture
Improved pasture
Traditional pasture
Unit (per ha)
Agronomic
sustainability
National policy
Carbon
Soil bulk Available Returns to
Biodiversity
storage
density Phosphorus
land
250
123
43
41
20
14
5
2
tC,
AG,timeaveraged
63
66
27
1.2
1.2
36
26
12
23
1.25
1.3
1.4
1.45
15
15
10
5
g/cm3
ppm
plant
species
richness
10
10
17
73
122
4734
1,247
302
466
1069
553
Smallholder
Employment
42
99
27
32
7
8
Returns to
land
45
84
296
156
197
209
6
-11
NPV 30y, workdays
NPV 30y,
5% discount per year 15% discount
White, et al. 2006, 2011
Based on Tomich, et al. 1998.
Participation to find optimal landscapes
•
•
•
•
Towards wellbeing in forest communities: a
sourcebook for local government
http://www.cifor.org/sourcebook/sitemap.html
Focal area approach
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/earth
scan/ijas/2011/00000009/00000001/art00027
Participatory Approaches to National
Development Planning
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASIA
PACIFIC/Resources/2262621143156545724/Brief_ADB.pdf
Participatory planning, monitoring and
evaluation
http://www.wageningenur.nl/en/show/CDIcours
e_PPME.htm
Models to find optimal landscapes
•
Agent based models
•
Dinamica http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/
•
Ecosaut: A Model for the economic, social,
and environmental evaluation of land use
http://cipotato.org/resources/publications/b
ook/a-manual-for-ecosaut-a-model-for-theeconomic-social-and-environmentalevaluation-of-land-use
•
Tradeoffs analysis model
http://www.tradeoffs.nl/
•
Fallow (Forest, Agroforest, Low-value
Landscape or Wasteland?)
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/pro
ducts/afmodels/fallow/whatsflw.htm
Models to find optimal landscapes
Models are computerbased
Include many input
parameters and relations.
Require calibration
(using historical data to
“recreate the present
situation”)
From there, extrapolations
into the future are possible
under different scenarios of
policy, technology and
trade assumptions.
Example: Dinamica
CSA Strategy and Planning Options
Many
Participants
Few
General
associations
Complexity
Detailed
interactions
CSA Strategy and Planning Options
Many
Participants
Few
Centralized
budgetary
planning
General
associations
Qualitative
analysis w/
indicators
Complexity
Detailed
interactions
CSA Strategy and Planning Options
Participatory
planning
Focus group
discussions
Many
Roundtable
discussions
Participants
Few
Centralized
budgetary
planning
General
associations
Qualitative
analysis w/
indicators
Complexity
Detailed
interactions
CSA Strategy and Planning Options
Participatory
planning
Focus group
discussions
Many
Roundtable
discussions
Participants
Few
Centralized
budgetary
planning
General
associations
Qualitative
analysis w/
indicators
Complexity
Participatory
landscape
planning
Landscape
modeling
Detailed
interactions
Summary
• A landscapes approach to CSA stimulates
multiple ways of seeing contexts and
potentials
• Many synergies, co-benefits, necessary
conditions and tradeoffs are likely,
strategic planning is a way to prepare and
coordinate actions.
• Strategic planning for CSA can emphasize
participation and complex analyses.
– Participation spurs local knowledge and
ownership
– Modeling produces deeper, perhaps new,
knowledge
– Both come with a tradeoff of requiring more
time
• Modeling is helpful to estimate and justify
fair payment mechanisms
• No one approach is best for all contexts.