Transcript Business Employment Dynamics: Birth/Death Data Analysis

Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages
David M. Talan
AUBER 2011 Fall Conference
Indianapolis, Indiana
October 9, 2011
Outline
 Background
 QCEW
Data Available
 Data Sharing
 New Statistical Products
Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages
Quarterly census of employers covered
under UI and federal employers
covered under UCFE
 98% of U.S. Employment
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QCEW – Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages
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Quarterly data (frequent)
Released 6 months after reference period timely
9.1 million records and growing
130 million in employment
Units, employment and wages
6 digit NAICS and county, ownership
20 million data series available on the BLS website
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UI based, mandatory collections to run UI
Wages
Employment
Units
- 98% reported data
- 97% reported data
- 95% reported data
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Uses of Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages Data (QCEW/ES-202)
Local Economic Development
Indicators
• Cluster Analysis
• Shift Share
• Industry Diversity Indexes
• Location Quotients
Current Employment
Statistics
Gross Domestic Product (BEA)
Personal Income (BEA) - U.S., State, County
Occupational
Employment Statistics
State Revenue Projections (BEA)
Minimum Wage Studies
Economic Forecasting
Quarterly Press Releases,
Annual Employment & Wages
REMI and Input-Output Tables
Occupational Safety and
Health Statistics
JOLTS and Green Goods
and Services
General Economic Uses
Job Creation/Destruction
•Size Class Dynamics
•Business Survival Rates
Geocoded Establishments
Census Bureau
• Improve Economic Census
• Improve CPS each decennial
population Census
• LEHD / LED
• Industry Code Sharing (3.3 M)
• County Business Patterns
Local Government Services
Planning
Local Economic Impact
Response Planning
Benchmarking
(Employment Base)
Analytical Uses
Quarterly Census of
Employment &
Wages Data
(QCEW/ES-202)
Industrial Price Program
Programmatic Uses
UI Tax Rate, Actuarial Analysis and
UI Benefit Rates
UI-Covered Employment
National Compensation Survey
Current Employment Statistics
Occupational Employment Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Stats
Local Transportation Planning
Mass Layoff Statistics: linkages
State/local industry employment
& wages
Federal Funds Allocation
$250 Billion
(HUD, USDA, HCFA/CHIP)
Social Security Administration
Updated as of 6/14/2011
Sampling
Occupational Safety and Health
Statistics
JOLTS and Green Goods and
Services and State Job Vacancy
Surveys…..and other federal govt
surveys
Investment in Quality
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Source: BLS Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Administrative data from Unemployment
Insurance filings (UI)
Huge investment in improving raw
administrative data
Two supplemental collections
– ARS- Annual Refiling Survey
– MWR- Multiple Worksite Report
Independent Validation
Checks
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Current Employment Statistics Survey
Monthly Survey of Employment and
Earners
400,000 establishments
Detailed industry and geographic estimates
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Individual Wage Records
National
State
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Highly Accurate Data
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Thorough editing and review at the state,
regional, and national levels each quarter
QCEW staff contact businesses to validate
or correct questionable data and/or
provide missing data (probably unique in
this respect)
Development of new processing system
with even more powerful editing and
review capabilities
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Quality issues:
Timeliness, Accuracy, Relevance
Timeliness: Streamlining QCEW and BED release
processes
 Relevance: Data fuzzing: working with experts to
develop fuzzing techniques
 Relevance: more BED and Non-profits, Ocean data,
 Relevance: working on clusters, shift share calculator
 Relevance: working with Transportation experts towards
greater use of QCEW data.
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Timeliness
January 1 – March 31
= Reference Quarter
March 31 – April 30
= Reporting Period
May 1 – July 29
= UI Processing
QCEW Extract from UI
QCEW Edit & Review
July 30 – Sept 28
= State File sent to BLS
BLS Review
State Updates Received
September 29, 2011
= Publication
Lag
= 6 months
New products, new users, expanding
support base
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NOAA: adding elevation to geocodes
Galveston, SF and Miami for detailed assessments
of potential water damage: sea level rise
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Non-Profits: developing a permanent nonprofit methodology for ongoing publication.
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Foreign Direct Investment: Any demand for
state level FDI from QCEW? Uses and users?
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Improved Confidentiality
Processing
EZS Approach (Evans, Zayatz, and Slanta)
 Goal: Protect tabular data
 Process: Perturb data at micro-level
 Currently in research phase
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 Is
the tradeoff between more
published cells at the cost of some
small accuracy a good one?
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Data Sharing
Bureau of Economic Analysis
 Census Bureau
 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)
 Future Data Sharing Plans
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Bureau of Economic
Analysis
Receives Employment and Wage Data
every quarter
 Used to prepare the Personal Income
component of the National Income and
Products Accounts at the national, state
and county level
 QCEW wages represent 94% of the
wage and salary component of Personal
Income and 42.5% of GDP
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Census Bureau
Receives industry codes every quarter.
 Used in the Census Business Register to
help classify new establishments.
 In FY2011, BLS supplied Census with
3.3 million matched firm records
 This data sharing project reduces
respondent burden, improves industry
codes for Census, and helps to create
consistent statistical products
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NOAA
Used to develop ocean economy
economic indicators of employment and
wages at the national, state and county
level
 This data sharing project is helping
NOAA develop new social science tools
and methods used to address the
nation’s coastal issues
 http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/s
napshots/index.html
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Future Data Sharing Plans
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More Data Sharing with Census:
Sharing Multi-units data
Sharing Professional Employer
Organization (PEO) data
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Department of Agriculture Economic
Research Service
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Employment and Wage
Data
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Number of establishments, monthly
employment, and quarterly wages
Available by:
 geographical area
 industry code
 size
WAGES
QCEW Mapping Tool
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QCEW Mapping Tool
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Uses of Geocoded Data
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Business Employment Dynamics
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National Total Private
National NAICS Sector
National Firm Size
State Total Private
National Size of Employment Change
Annual (National/State)
Birth Death National/State)
3 Digit national data
Age and survival
 National and state 2 digit
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September 2003
May 2004
December 2005
August 2007
September 2008
May 19, 2009
May 19, 2009
May 20, 2010
August 19, 2010
Future? More, much more
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What are the BED?
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BED are longitudinally linked QCEW
microdata
– Unit of analysis is the Establishment
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BED Scope
– Private sector, excludes private households
• 6.8 million establishments
• 107 million employment
BED reveals the dynamics of the labor market.
 BED data show gross job flows as well as net
employment changes
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What are the BED?
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A set of statistics measuring changes in
employment at the establishment level on
a quarterly basis
Job churn
Creative destruction
What are the BED?
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BED statistics break down the underlying
dynamics of net employment change into the
numbers and rates of gross jobs gained and
gross jobs lost
Gross job gains
– Expansions
– Openings
• Births
Gross job losses
– Contractions
– Closings
• Deaths
BED Press Release
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High Frequency and Timely Gross Job Flows
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Available 8 months after the reference quarter
 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewbd.pdf
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2 week speed-up this year
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Data and charts available on the BLS website:
http://www.bls.gov/bdm/
Gross Job Gains and Losses
Gross job gains
Gross job losses
BED Components
Expansions
Contractions
Openings
Closings
Number of Openings –
Closings: U.S. Total Private
2007 March
9,000
June
-11,000
September
15,000
December
23,000
2008 March
-22,000
June
-39,000
September
-23,000
December
-43,000
2009 March
-89,000
June
-50,000
September
-59,000
December
15,000
2010 March
June
September
-50,000
5,000
-12,000
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Construction of Buildings
Real Estate
Arizona
Florida
North Dakota
Small Firms Lagging, With
Bulk of Job Losses
“Most of the job losses at the end of last year
took place at the smallest firms, underscoring
how small businesses are lagging in the
recovery.”
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August 19, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704557704575437650742168186.html?mod=W
SJ_economy_LeftTopHighlights
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Net Employment Change
By Firm Size
Year
3 Months Ended
2007 March
June
September
December
1 to 4
18
-40
-18
14
5 to 9
38
-15
-25
-19
10 to 19
50
9
-41
-10
20 to 49
70
43
-51
-2
50 to 99
46
46
-23
10
100 to 249 250 to 499
58
31
73
51
-36
-13
42
29
500 to 999 1,000 or more
43
76
30
4
-6
-51
12
190
2008 March
June
September
December
-79
-106
-93
-136
-34
-58
-66
-147
-22
-50
-79
-174
-18
-46
-122
-250
-7
-20
-73
-183
0
-7
-95
-199
-1
-15
-49
-126
-4
-24
-59
-113
-147
-197
-391
-540
2009 March
June
September
December
-245
-114
-145
-3
-178
-83
-72
-40
-220
-95
-82
-60
-341
-141
-122
-67
-274
-114
-62
-36
-320
-146
-78
-16
-211
-115
-60
-16
-178
-133
-42
-17
-681
-763
-382
-20
NOTE: Some smaller firms had net employment losses before the
start of the recession in December 2007
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Why BED data by
establishment age?
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The Committee on National Statistics recommended
employment dynamics data by age.
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Age and survival data along will complete ‘demographic’ profile
of US businesses.
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Unsettled debate on who creates the most jobs: young or old
firms? A debate similar to the small vs. large firms contribution
to employment growth.
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The impact of age of firm/establishment on employment
growth and productivity is inconclusive.
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New research (Young firms, Not Small Ones, Are the Engines of
Growth ) showed controlling for age, there is no systematic
relationship between firm size and growth.
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“Weak Pace of Start-Ups
could hurt Recovery”
“Entrepreneurs have started up the
fewest new U.S. businesses in more
than a decade, according to
government figures that could spell
more bad news for job creation.”
 USATODAY
June 13, 2011
http://www.usatoday.com/money/smallbusiness/2011-06-13-smallbusiness-start-ups-fewer_n.htm
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Home Prices compared to
Establishment Births
$300,000.00
250
Median Home Price and Establishment Births (SA)
$250,000.00
200
$200,000.00
150
$150,000.00
100
$100,000.00
50
$50,000.00
Dec-10
0
May-10
Oct-09
Mar-09
Aug-08
Jun-07
Nov-06
Apr-06
Sep-05
Feb-05
Jul-04
Dec-03
May-03
Oct-02
Mar-02
Aug-01
Jan-01
Jun-00
Nov-99
Apr-99
Sep-98
Feb-98
Jul-97
Dec-96
May-96
Oct-95
Mar-95
Aug-94
Jan-94
Jun-93
$-
Jan-08
Median Home
Price
Survival Rates Across
Cohorts
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Customer Feedback
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What new products would you like?
Detailed State Data
6-Digit County Level Birth/Death Counts
Firm Size by Industry, State
Firm v. Establishment Data?
Age
Others?
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Please let us know!
Accessing the QCEW and BED
Macrodata
BED:
http://www.bls.gov/bdm/home.htm
 QCEW:
http://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm
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Contact Information
David Talan
Phone:
(202) 691-6467
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.bls.gov/bdm