Transcript Slide 1

Risky Business
Agility @ Work
Todd Little
Sr. Development Manager
Landmark Software & Services
Chris Matts
How do “Risky Businesses” work
“It’s tough to make predictions,
especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra, Niels Bohr
Da Plan, Boss – Da Plan
Hurricane Rita
Getting Better
The Cone of Uncertainty
We expect uncertainty and manage for it through iterations,
anticipation, and adaptation.
Financial Markets
A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is
outside the range of probability.
Harvard Economic Society, Weekly Letter,
November 16, 1929.
War
They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist…
General John B. Sedgwick, Union Army Civil
War officer's last words, uttered during the Battle
of Spotsylvania, 1864
Gordon the
Guided Missile
Movies
Books
Poker
Poker: Which is the best hand?
A
B
C
33.5%
29.6%
36.5%
Poker Metric:
Percent of Hands Won
Medical World
Real Options
Value of Information
Value of Flexibility
Making An Agile Conference Agile
1000
Submissions for 2011 compared to 2010
900
800
700
600
Y2010
5 Extra weeks to
review sessions
500
Y2011-IT1
400
Y2011-IT2
300
200
100
0
0
10
20
30
40
Days Before Deadline
50
60
70
Estimated Agile 2010 Attendance
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
Most Likely
600
Pessimistic
400
Optimistic
200
0
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
Weeks Out
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
FINAL
Oil & Gas Exploration
Which Risks Are Important
Geosteering
2/
13
/
2/ 200
20 9
/
2/ 200
27 9
/2
3/ 009
6/
3/ 200
13 9
/
3/ 200
20 9
/
3/ 200
27 9
/2
4/ 009
3/
4/ 200
10 9
/
4/ 200
17 9
/
4/ 200
24 9
/2
5/ 009
1/
2
5/ 009
8/
5/ 200
15 9
/
5/ 200
22 9
/
5/ 200
29 9
/2
6/ 009
5/
6/ 200
12 9
/
6/ 200
19 9
/
6/ 200
26 9
/2
7/ 009
3/
20
09
Story Points
Depth vs. Days
900
800
700
Done
Done Done
BurnDown
Projected
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Date
I’m beginning to
think it wasn’t such
a good idea to turn
off those unit tests
Categories of risk
Delivery Failure Business Case Failure
Collateral Damage
Collateral Damage
Delivery Failure results in Collateral
Damage
Collateral Damage
An effective roll-back strategy
Business Case Failure
Business Case Failure
New Product Development
I think there is a world market for about five
computers.
Thomas J. Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
Features and Functions
Always or Often
Used: 20%
Always 7%
Often 13%
Sometimes
16%
Never Used
45%
Rarely Used
19%
Never or Rarely
Used: 64%
Standish Group Study, reported by CEO Jim Johnson, XP2002
The Purpose Alignment Model
35
In Practice
CAN WE
CREATE A
DIFFERENTIATED
PARTNERSHIP?
MINIMIZE /
ELIMINATE
36
INNOVATE,
CREATE
ACHIEVE AND
MAINTAIN
PARITY,
MIMIC,
SIMPLIFY
Applicable at all Levels
• Corporate
Strategy
• Product Strategy
38
A View of Strategy - Apple
ATT
PERIPHERALS
NEW PRODUCT
DESIGN
USER EXPERIENCE
CONTENT
DISTRIBUTION
MS OFFICE
INTEL HARDWARE
OTHER
SOFTWARE
Delivery Failure
Delivery Challenges/Failures
Succesful
35%
Failed
19%
Challenged
46%
Standish Group 2006, reported by CEO Jim Johnson, CIO.com, ‘How to Spot a Failing Project’
Managing the Coming Storm
Inside the Tornado
Project Kickoff
When will we get the requirements?
All in good time, my little pretty, all in good time
But I guess it doesn't matter anyway
Just give me your estimates by this afternoon
Team Unity
Not so fast! Not so fast! ... I'll have to give the matter a little
thought. Go away and come back tomorrow
No, we need something today!
Ok then, it will take 2 years.
No, we need it sooner.
Doesn't anybody believe me?
I already promised the customer it will be out in 6 months
You're a very bad man!
We’re not in Kansas Anymore
Developer Hero
I may not come out alive, but I'm goin' in there!
Reorg
The Great and Powerful Oz has got matters well in hand.
My! People come and go so quickly here!
Testing
"Hee hee hee ha ha! Going so soon? I wouldn't hear
of it! Why, my little party's just beginning!
IEEE Software, May/June 2006
Accuracy of Initial Estimate
Actual
Initial Estimate vs. Actual Duration
Ideal
LGC Data
DeMarco
Initial Estimate
Uncertainty Bounds
Cumulative Distribution Function of Actual/Estimate Ratio
100%
90%
80%
CDF Probability
70%
DeMarco Data
DeMarco Log-Normal
Landmark Data
Landmark Log-Normal
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0.1
1
Ratio of Actual/Estimate
10
How does Estimation Accuracy
Improve Over Time?
Cone of Uncertainty from Boehm
Relative Cost Range
4.0
2.0
1.5
1.25
1.0
0.8
0.67
0.5
0.25
Feasibility
Concept of
Operation
Requirements Product Design Detail Design
Spec
Spec
Spec
Accepted
Software
Landmark Cone of Uncertainty
Estimation Error over Time
Acutal Total Duration / Estimated Total Duration
10
1
0.1
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Percent of Actual Duration
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
But is Uncertainty Really Reduced?
“Take away an ordinary person’s illusions and
you take away happiness at the same time.”
Henrik Ibsen--Villanden
Remaining Uncertainty
Lan Cao - Estimating Agile Software Project
Effort: An Empirical Study
Estimation Errors
Getting Better
Estimation Quality Factor (EQF)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
Years
4
Wrong Priorities
Curses
Contact
Todd Little
[email protected]
www.toddlittleweb.com
www.accelinnova.com
Chris Matts
[email protected]
Join us as we continue the conversations
Back to the Future – 10 Years of Agility and
Beyond