Transcript Legislative and Funding Issues

Congressional Update:
Numbers, Nuances and Where
Congress Stands
Julia Martin, Esq.
[email protected]
Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC
Fall Forum 2014
AGENDA
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The new Congress by the numbers
What has the 113th Congress accomplished?
Predictions for lame duck session
Outlook for the 114th Congress
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THE NEW CONGRESS BY THE
NUMBERS
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Senate: 113th Congress
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Senate: 114th Congress
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•
The
Midterm
Curse
President’s party historically takes a hit in
Loss/Gain for President’s Party
midterm elections
Senate
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Why such a big shift in the Senate?
 Large number of Democrats retiring:
 Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA)
 Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)
 Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD)
 Sen. John Walsh (D-MT)
… who live in increasingly Republican States (though Iowa went for
Pres. Obama in 2012)
 And some surprising losses:
 Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) to Thom Tillis
 Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) to Tom Cotton
 Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) to Cory Gardner
…for largely the same reason
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Why does it matter?
• If Republicans control both chambers, stronger
negotiating position against President Obama on:
– Repeal/replacement of health care law
– Immigration
– Federal funding generally
• Moving away from sequestration?
– Education
• Including: gainful employment/for-profit colleges, student loans/aid,
ESEA, charters, etc.
• Senate already a highly contentious body where some
procedures require 60+ votes
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Why does it matter?
• “Imagine planning a party and inviting 20 friends. Nine of
them want pepperoni pizza and 11 want cheese. So you all
decide to cancel the whole party. That’s how the United
States Senate works.”
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House: 113th Congress
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House: 114th Congress
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Loss/Gain for President’s Party
The Midterm Curse
House of Representatives
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Why does it matter?
• Continued partisanship between and within parties
(especially between Republicans)
• Straight majority still most important in House (but some
efforts require 2/3)
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New Congress already at odds with
popular opinion?
 Voted in overwhelmingly conservative House and
Senate
 Many governorships changed hands to Republicans
 BUT
 Voters in CO, TN, and ND rejected fetal “personhood”
amendments
 OR and DC legalized recreational marijuana possession/use
 AK, AR, IL, NE, and SD increased minimum wage
 Voters in WA passed gun background check bill
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New Congress already at odds with
popular opinion?
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New Congress already at
odds with popular opinion?
 Why the disparity?
 Many self-identified Democrats voted for Republicans
 President’s unpopularity a liability for many
Democrats
 Sign that Republicans going back toward
mainstream?
Former Presidential candidate Mitt Romney calls it a
victory for “big tent” Republicans
 What will it mean for this Congress?
 Lack of conservative mandate?
 Some more mainstream/moderate legislation
 But also some confusion about what voters want/find
important
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WHAT HAS THE 113TH CONGRESS
ACCOMPLISHED?
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Artifacts Discovered Buried In Washington D.C. Suggest Humans Once
Passed Laws There • Sep 18, 2014
“[E]vidence points to an extraordinary
yet apparently common ritual in which
early leaders who held opposing
viewpoints engaged in a standardized
routine of communicating, offering
mutual concessions, and then moving
together on an idea called an
“agreement” that occupied some sort
of middle ground between their two
initial visions … researchers said that
the complete lack of any relics from
more recent years confirmed that the
practice seems to have died out
suddenly and without any explanation.”
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What has Congress Done Lately?
Before recessing for midterm elections,
113th Congress had passed
 163 bills
 Least of any Congress (112th: 283; 111th: 383)
 18 are bills to rename Post Offices or federal courthouses
 Includes:
 A limited number of appropriations bills
 A very limited number of non-controversial pieces of education
reauthorization legislation
 WIA
 CCDBG
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PREDICTIONS FOR LAME
DUCK SESSION
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Still on the to-do list
• Full-year appropriations for FY 2015
– Current CR expires December 11th
• Homeland Security issues?
– Syria/ISIS
– Ebola outbreak
• Immigration?
• HEA reauthorization?
• Student loans?
 Focus continues to be on last-minute, must-pass legislation
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How does election change this?
• Not much!
• Republicans have more incentive to wait until January to
craft substantive policy/spending legislation
– Likely to have a short session in November/December
– All optional legislation will be delayed until new Congress
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Appropriations – FY 2015
• Sen. McConnell has pledged no more government
shutdowns
• As of November 5th, House and Senate appropriators
working on full-year “wrap-up” Omnibus appropriations bill
for remainder of FY 2015
– CR expires December 11th
– Want to get Omnibus done by end of December
– Generally looking to find common ground between House
and Senate based on agreed-to budget caps
• Means more or less continuation of current funding, no
significant cuts
• If CR cut continued over full year, would be 0.28% cut total
– But possible objection from Republican lawmakers, especially
in light of electoral victory
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What happens to legislation
at the end of a Congress?
• Bills “die”
• Must be reintroduced the next session
– Process starts from beginning (e.g., must go to Committee even if it
has been passed through one chamber)
– But “legacy”/footprint of early versions leaves its mark
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OUTLOOK FOR THE 114TH
CONGRESS
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“Oh brave new world…”
…the 114th Congress convenes
on January
4th, 2015
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First Things First
• House of Representatives must adopt rules for
new session
• Senate does not need to adopt new rules, but
must consider changes to rules
• Leadership positions must be confirmed
– House: Speaker/Majority Leader/Minority
Leader, Majority/Minority Whips and deputies
– Senate: Majority Leader/Minority Leader,
Majority/Minority Whips and deputies
• Committee chairs and members must be selected
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Outlook for 114th Congress
 Will have significant proportion of new members
 11 in Senate (11%)
 58 in House (13%)
 Significant majorities in House and Senate mean
Republicans have more ability to push legislation
through Congress
 BUT subject to:
 Objections from Democrats
 Objections from “rank-and-file” Republicans
 Presidential veto
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Appropriations – FY 2016
• More likely that new Republican
majority will flex its muscles here
– No agreement on spending caps
means starting from scratch
– Republicans have expressed desire to
eliminate Defense sequestration
– Pass budget resolutions in House and
Senate through “reconciliation” –
only need majority, not 60 votes in
Senate
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Other Leadership Priorities
• Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)  likely Senate
Majority Leader
– Approve the Keystone XL Pipeline
– Changes to health care law:
• Repealing the medical device tax
• Changing “full-time” definition to
40-hour work week
• Repealing individual mandate
– Changes to Estate Tax
– Modify Senate rules
• Possibly eliminate “nuclear option”
• Allow more Senators to bring legislation to floor
– Work with President on bipartisan legislation
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Other Leadership Priorities
•
Rep. John Boehner (R-OH)  incumbent (and likely future) Speaker of
the House
– Simplify tax code
– Reduce spending by revising entitlement programs and other
drivers of debt
– Legal reforms, including medical malpractice
– Regulatory Reforms
• Making major rules contingent on Congressional
approval, reducing agency expenses
– Education reforms
• Expanding charter school access
• Reducing college costs
• Reforming K-12 education by: (mostly part of H.R. 10)
– Revamping teacher evaluations
– Giving States/districts more control over use of federal
funds
– Increasing school choice options
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New Chair in Senate Committee
• Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and
Pensions
• Current Chairman Tom Harkin (D-IA) retiring at the end
of the year
• Chair finalized in January when new Senate convenes
• Most likely Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
• Former U.S. Secretary of Education, Governor, college
president
• Focus on HEA reauthorization, FAFSA simplification, reducing
higher ed regulations
• ESEA reauthorization a “top priority”
• New Ranking Member likely Patty Murray (D-WA)
– Focus on early education
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New Makeup of House Committee
• Rep. John Kline (R-MN) remains Chairman
– Focus on ESEA reauthorization, charter schools
– Wants to reauthorize HEA
• Current Ranking Member George Miller (D-CA) will retire at
the end of the year
– Likely replacement is Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA)
• Focus on school discipline, boosting minority achievement
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114th Congress in a Nutshell
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Continued partisanship, especially in Senate
Clashes with President on immigration, health care
Focus on funding issues
Likely candidates for education action:
– HEA reauthorization
– Charter schools
– Maybe ESEA (?????)
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Disclaimer
 This presentation is intended solely to provide general
information and does not constitute legal advice or a legal
service. This presentation does not create a client-lawyer
relationship with Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC and, therefore,
carries none of the protections under the D.C. Rules of
Professional Conduct. Attendance at this presentation, a later
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questions or communications arising out of this presentation
with any attorney at Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC does not
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Manasevit, PLLC. You should not take any action based upon
any information in this presentation without first consulting
legal counsel familiar with your particular circumstances.
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