Transcript Slide 1

Preparing for climate change
Climate Science in the
Public Interest
Outline
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Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation
Assessing vulnerability
White paper assignment
Using the guidebook
Group start-up
Dealing with Climate Change:
Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation activities
Adaptation activities
Reducing emissions of
greenhouse gases
Managing the change that
occurs as mitigation strategies
are implemented.
Outline
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Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation
Assessing vulnerability
White paper assignment
Using the guidebook
Group start-up
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Vulnerability Assessment
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Identify outcome variables of
concern (vulnerability of what
(over what timescale)?)
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Identify stressors of concern
(vulnerability to what?)
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Full vulnerability assessment
adds consideration of the
context, values & objectives;
must consider human choices &
viewpoints.
Vogel & O’Brien 2004
IPCC Definitions
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How sensitive is a particular system to climate change – that is,
how will a system respond to given changes in climate?
How adaptable is a particular system to climate change – that
is, to what degree are adjustments possible in practices,
processes, or structures of systems in response to projected or
actual changes in climate?
Finally, how vulnerable is a system to climate change – that is,
how susceptible is it to damage or harm?
(IPCC, SAR 1995, WG2)
--- Some analyses also independently examine exposure, or the
degree to which a system experiences a fluctuation in climate
Exposure
The degree to which a system
experiences a fluctuation in climate.
Sensitivity
The degree to which a system
changes as external conditions
(e.g., the climate) change(s).
Adaptability
The degree to which a system
can recover from adverse
changes or take advantage of
positive changes, prepare for or
adapt to new conditions.
Characteristics of Adaptation
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ongoing process (embedded examples of
existing adaptations to climate)
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adaptation = both a policy response and a
spontaneous adjustment
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occurs not in isolation but within complex
milieu of ecological, economic, social &
institutional circumstances
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not always successful
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maladaptation occurs because of other social
goals, often short-term
Characteristics of Adaptation
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reactive vs. proactive
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intent
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scale*: local to national, individual to society
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timing
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duration*: short- vs. long-term, tactical vs. strategic,
adjustment vs. adaptation
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technological and institutional adjustments
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effect*: buffer or change to new state
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* = important to consider when evaluating success
How do we reduce vulnerability?
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reduce the exposure of the system to climate
fluctuations or their impacts (e.g., by restricting
development in a flood plain)
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reduce the system’s sensitivity (e.g., by requiring
homes in the flood plain to be built on stilts
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increase the adaptability of the system to deal with the
effects of climate fluctuations (by providing education
about climate risks to encourage relocation or
insurance payouts to flooded residents to rebuild their
homes)
Two-Pronged Approach:
Building Capacity and Delivering Action
Building Adaptive
Capacity
Delivering Adaptive
Actions
•Addressing institutional,
legal, cultural, technical,
fiscal and other barriers
•Activities can be taken
independent of specific
climate projections
•Implementing actions to
address specific climate
vulnerabilities
•Choice and timing of some
actions may depend on
specifics of the climate
projections
Risk Assessment
• Prioritizing actions…
• Risk = consequence x probability
• A qualitative assessment in the guidebook although lots of
methodologies for quantitative assessments
• Recognizes that not all impacts are created equal; the risk
will vary
What defines success?
Define “successful” adaptation
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survival in largely the same form as it exists today (stability)
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continued ability to provide the same or similar system functions over the long
term
Do we want PNW forests to provide harvestable timber or to support biological
diversity? I
Do we want homes near today’s current flood plain to be protected in their current
locations or for there to be no homes there to worry about protecting?
Define the temporal and spatial scales for evaluation
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Criteria for success vary with the spatial scale of evaluation and are weighted
and valued differently by different interest groups (Adger et al. 2005).
Do we want the PNW to continue providing harvestable timber (or supporting
biodiversity) over the next 10, 100, or 1000 years?
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Indicators calculated at one scale may hide substantial variations in adaptive
capacity at another (Adger et al. 2005b).
Are we interested in the continued existence of salmon somewhere in the world, or the
survival of specific stocks within specific watersheds in the PNW?
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Efficiency, effectiveness, equity & legitimacy… (Adger et al. 2005).
Why assess vulnerability?
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To understand actual implications of climate change
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To provide a do-nothing benchmark for evaluating
response options
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Identify priority areas for action (high exposure, high
sensitivity, low adaptatibility)
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Guide decision makers in planning (via identification &
evaluation of adaptation options)
Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the
Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin
Sensitivity, adaptability,
vulnerability of Columbia River
water resources to climate
variability and change (Miles et
al. 2000)
– Stressors = climate variability
and change, plus population
growth, changing environmental
values/operational priorities
– Outcomes of concern =
Columbia River water resources
operating objectives (reliability)
Miles et al. 2000: Climate variability
Sensitivity of streamflow
Observed response
 Coefficient of variability (relatively low)
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Sensitivity of water resources
 Reliability = f(flow)
 Hydropower/flood control vs. fish
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Adaptability of water resources
Technological adaptability: Could you
manage differently? No.
 Institutional adaptability: Could you
manage differently? No.
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Vulnerability of water resources
= f(sensitivity, adaptability)
 Low with respect to floods, high with
respect to droughts
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Climate change ( exposure, threshold)
Who’s preparing?
King County, WA
• Replacing 57+ “short
span” bridges with
wider spans
• Replacing undersized
culverts
• Incorporating low
impact development
techniques to reduce
stormwater runoff
• Revamping county
levee system
• Bringing water reuse
plant online
• Evaluating impacts
of sea level rise on
wastewater
infrastructure
City of Olympia, WA
$150,000 allocated to start on climate change
adaptation strategy
• Installing 2 GPS station downtown to better assess
subsidence and uplift in the downtown area
• Implementing Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR)
technology to improve topographical elevation information
(over aerial photography) for more accurate hydrologic
modeling and vulnerability analysis
• A hydraulic computer model will be developed to better
evaluate the interactions between stormwater and
streamflow
City of Olympia, WA cont’d
• Relocating primary water supply from surface water source
to higher elevation groundwater source.
• Developing a 3-10 year work plan to implement longer-term
adaptation actions such as changes in building codes, FEMA
flood hazard zone, and utility infrastructure.
• Partnership building
• 2009-2010 activities include:
– Evaluating current high tides and Deschutes River
flooding
– Assessing potential impacts on drinking water aquifers.
Washington State PAWG Recs
Broad range of recommendations related to:
• Enhancing emergency preparedness and response;
• Incorporating climate change and its impacts into planning
and decision-making processes;
• Restoring and protecting natural systems and natural
resources;
• Building institutional capacity and knowledge to address
impacts associated with climate change;
• More effectively managing and sharing best available data;
and
• Educating, informing and engaging landowners, public
officials, citizens and others.
Outline
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Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation
Assessing vulnerability
White paper assignment
Using the guidebook
Group start-up
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
White Paper
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You will work in a group to develop a climate vulnerability and
adaptation assessment for a real-world jurisdiction (management
and/or policy-making body) in the Pacific Northwest. In this
project, your team will take the role of a consultant to the
jurisdiction, that is, analyzing and discussing options and tradeoffs. You will recommend a course of action while providing
enough information for your client to decide whether they agree
with you.
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Specifically, we expect you to assess and describe the utility of
using one or more of the following types of climate information:
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seasonal to interannual climate forecasts,
current understanding of range of regional natural climate variability,
and/or
projected anthropogenic climate change.
Format & Content
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Aim your paper directly at the people who could make the
change you propose – remember that this is a policy proposal.*
(You may need to include some additional background
information that the instructors would need to understand the
paper.)
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10-15 pages long (including figures, tables, and references).
Include a one page executive summary.
Include a consideration of the following elements and the
interaction among them:
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The natural/environmental context
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The economic context
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The institutional/legal context
* Requires “defining the users/clients and understanding their perspective”
(Jacobs)
Components of Analysis
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A characterization of your client's decision-making environment and their
management and policy-making limits and responsibilities
A list of your client's primary “pre-climate” vulnerabilities and issues of concern
(as previously perceived/identified by your client and/or others)
A climate sensitivity assessment (based on information about natural climate
variations/available climate forecasts OR climate change projections for your
client's region, likely climate impacts in that region, and an analysis of the
sensitivity of your client's planning areas to those climate impacts)
A climate adaptability assessment (an assessment of your client's ability to
adapt to the relevant climate impacts)
A climate change vulnerability (risk) assessment (based on your analysis of the
consequences, magnitude and probability of climate impacts, as well as your
evaluation of your client's risk tolerance and community values)
A climate preparedness planning proposal, which will include:
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A list of (all) potential adaptation options
A discussion of budget constraints, political and jurisdictional constraints
A proposed prioritization of planning areas for action and specific climate adaptation
strategies
Some other questions to consider: Are there specific barriers that must be
overcome before improved or innovative use of climate information is possible?
How do you propose that your client overcome them? Are there consequences
to ignoring climate information?
Questions we’ll be asking as we read your
paper
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What are your client’s policy/management goals & objectives?
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How will climate affect them and their ability meet those goals?
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What choices does your client have to respond to climate
information?
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To what aspects of climate is your client most vulnerable? According
to which criteria (ecologic, economic, political)?
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Why should we believe that the proposed course of action is viable,
given the “real world context” (economic and institutional realities) of
your client’s situation?*
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What barriers must be overcome before the proposed improved use
of climate information is possible? How do you propose to overcome
them?
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What are the risks of following your proposed course of action?
* Think about Jacob’s conditions for providing useful services/products.
Important Dates
April 14
April 30
Group assignments,
Start-up workshop
Meet with Nate & Amy to discuss
potential topic(s)
Prospectus Due
May 14
In-class white paper workshop
June 2 & 4
In-class presentations
June 10, Noon
Final paper & self/peer evaluation
due
April 14-29
Outline




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Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation
Assessing vulnerability
White paper assignment
Using the guidebook
Group start-up
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Setting the course for adaptation: A
guidebook for planning for climate change
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Collaboration between UW Climate
Impacts Group and King County,
Washington
Published by ICLEI – Local
Governments for Sustainability
Detailed description of why and how to prepare for global
warming at the local/regional scale
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Strategies for reviewing current policies and procedures for
implementing adaptive responses
Tips for managing the risk and uncertainty associated with global
warming
Sector-specific adaptation strategies and planning resources
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Brainstorming Adaptation Actions
Breaking Down Sensitivity…
a
b
c
e
…and Adaptability
The Outcome…
Outline
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Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation
Assessing vulnerability
White paper assignment
Using the guidebook
Group start-up
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Group Start-Up
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Lessons from experience...
http://catalyst.washington.edu/web_tools/sharespaces.html
Group Start-Up: ID challenges
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Different languages, vocabularies & standards of
knowing
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Allocate effort & time for clear communication
Invest strongly in problem definition early in the project
Biases and prejudices that accompany disciplinary
training
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Self-awareness & respect for/willingness to learn about
other methods/approaches
Nicholson et al. 2002. Ten heuristics for interdisciplinary modeling
projects. Ecosystems 5: 376-384.
Lele and Norgaard. 2005. Practicing interdisciplinarity. BioScience
55: 967-975.
Group Start-Up
1. Share personal information about yourself
2. Identify your skills that may be useful to the team
3. Identify your preferences about how you like to
work with others
4. Identify your team’s strengths and weaknesses
5. Discuss various roles/responsibilities of teamwork
and who will fill those roles
6. Establish plans for collaboration in the near term