Transcript Slide 1

An “Evidence-Based” Investment Strategy
Identifying & Implementing Policies
that Improve Outcomes and Save Money:
The Washington State Approach
Canadian Congress on Criminal Justice
Vancouver, British Columbia
October 4, 2013
Steve Aos
Director
Washington State Institute for Public Policy
Phone: (360) 586-2740
E-mail: [email protected]
Institute Publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov
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Washington State Institute for Public Policy
Nature of the Institute
Directions to WSIPP
from the WA Legislature
 Non-partisan, created by 1983
Legislature
What works? What doesn’t?
 General purpose legislative
research unit
 Projects assigned by legislative bills
 Legislative & Executive Board
What are the costs & benefits of
policies to improve…
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Crime (1994, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2012, 2013)
Education, Early Ed (2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2013)
Child Abuse & Neglect (2003, 2009, 2012)
Substance Abuse (2003, 2005, 2009, 2012)
Mental Health (2005, 2009, 2012)
Health Care (2012)
Developmental Disabilities (2008)
Teen Births (1994)
Employment, Workforce Training (2009)
Public Assistance (2009)
Public Health (2009)
Housing (2009)
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Big Picture
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
Change in Crime Rates
United States and Washington:
1980 to 2011
United States
Washington
Crime Rates :
-45%
-46%
Homicide Rates:
-48%
-49%
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Big Picture
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
Adult Prison Incarceration Rates:
1930 to 2012
*Incarceration Rate
United States
6
5
4
Washington
3
2
1
0
1930 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
*The incarceration rate is defined as the number of inmates in prisons per 1,000 resident population in
Washington or the United States.
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Big Picture
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
Are There Evidence-Based Policies that Improve
Outcomes with a Positive Return on Investment?
Our 3-Step Research Approach
1. Evidence:. What works to improve outcomes;
what does not?
We analyze all rigorous evaluations on policies
to improve public outcomes of legislative interest.
2. Economics: What is the return on investment?
We compute benefits, costs, and risk to the people of
Washington State using a consistent framework.
3.
Portfolio:
How would a combination of options affect
statewide outcomes? What is the risk?
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Big Picture
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
WSIPP “Consumer Reports” Lists
Evidence-based policy options ranked by return on investment
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The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
What Works to Reduce Crime? Change In Benefits Minus Costs,
(Examples from our latest results)
Crime
per-person, life cycle
Big Picture
Adult Offender Programs
(# of EB Studies)
Cog-Behavioral Treatment
Drug Tx in Prison (TC or out-patient)
ISP: surveillance only
ISP: treatment focus
Juvenile Offender Programs*
Functional Family Therapy
Multisystemic Therapy
Aggression Repl. Training
Scared Straight
-7% (38)
-12% (21)
0% (14)
-14% (17)
$9,283
$10,974
-$4,718
$7,295
-22% (8)
-13% (11)
-20% (4)
+8% (10)
$30,706 (<1%)
$24,751 (2%)
$29,740 (4%)
-$9,887 (100%)
(Probability: you lose $)
(<1%)
(<1%)
(89%)
(4%)
Prison & Policing
Police Per Capita
Incarceration Per Capita
-22%
(8) results
$30,706
(<1%)
Updated
available
-13% (11) soon
$24,751 (2%)
Prevention*
Pre-School* (low income)
Nurse Family Partnership*
-21% (11)
-17% (3)
$14,934 (<1%)
$13,182 (20%)
* Programs have a number of other non-crime benefits; all benefits reported here.
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Overview
The Numbers
Washington State
Next Steps
Outcome: Crime
Program: Functional Family Therapy
for Juvenile Offenders
Number of Slots Funded
Taxpayer Cost per Slot (net)
Total Cost
Number who recidivate with a new crime
WITHOUT FFT
WITH FFT
Net Change
Lifetime benefits per avoided recidivist
Total Benefits
Bottom Line: Benefits – Costs
100
$3,300
$330,000
60
47
- 13
$211,000
$2,743,000
+$2,413,000
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Big Picture
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
WSIPP “Consumer Reports” Lists
Evidence-based policy options ranked by return on investment
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Overview
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
Using Research to Craft Criminal Justice Policy:
Washington’s Legislative Milestones
1984
Sentencing Reform
1995
Juvenile Justice
2000
2003
2005-6
→ Budget Change
Adult Corrections → Budget Change
Prevention → Budget Change
What policy portfolio reduces crime & limits
prison construction?
Budget Change, Silo
→
2007
Translated the Legislature's evidence-based
investments into budget drivers for prison.
2012 &
2013
Evidence-based budget requirements
(for juvenile justice, adult corrections, children’s mental
health, child welfare, adult mental health & substance abuse).
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Overview
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
Four Evidence-Based Implementation Issues
(Things we’ve learned)
 Formal Assessment Process (Tools)
to align participants with the right programs,
and to focus resources on higher-risk populations.
 State-Funded Quality/Fidelity System
to assure better adherence to the assessment system
and the intervention program models.
 Swift and Certain Apprehension
clear evidence (for crime deterrence) for certainty,
but not for severity of punishment.
 Funding Formulas with the Right Incentives
to encourage interest, adherence, and innovations
in evidence-based programs.
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Big Picture
Results
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Keeping Track of Results: Prison Beds Avoided
Average Daily Prison Population
Cumulative Effect of Washington’s History of Evidence-based Programming
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
As of 2013, there are about
1,500 fewer people in
prison as a result of
Washington’s evidencebased adult, juvenile, &
prevention programs.
These effects are in the
state prison forecast.
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1980
Blue Area
= Actual Prison Population
Orange Area = What ADP would have been
without the high ROI programs.
1985
1990
1995
2000 2005
Year
2010
Years beyond 2013
are current state
forecast.
2015
2020
2025
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Big Picture
Results
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Trends in Adult Recidivism in Washington: 1990-2007
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Annual prison release cohorts by DOC risk classification level
Violent Felony Re-conviction
Any Felony Re-conviction (within 3 years after release)
Among moderate risk
offenders released from
prison in 2007, 20% were
reconvicted for a new
felony within three years.
Among moderate risk
offenders released from
prison in 1990, 31% were
reconvicted for a new
felony within three years.
31%
20%
'90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06
Lower Risk
(20% of total prison pop)
Moderate Risk
(17%)
High, Non-violent
(19%)
High, Violent
(44%)
Risk Classification Level of Offenders In Prison
by year of release from prison
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Big Picture
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
16 other US States are now implementing versions of the
“Washington Approach” via the Results First project of
the MacArthur Foundation and the Pew Charitable Trusts
WA
OR
NY
ID
VT
IA
MA
IL
RI
CA
KS
CT
NM
MS
TX
FL
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Caveat
Two Goals of Criminal Justice Policy:
Crime Reduction
(to achieve less crime in the future)
Justice
(to address criminal wrongs done in the past)
Benefit-cost and recidivism risk findings
can help policymakers with the crime reduction goal,
but they are pretty much silent on the justice goal.
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ANNUAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE ISSUE
EXCLUSIVE RATINGS
Over 200 Crime–Related Programs and Policies
Institute
Publications:
www.wsipp.wa.gov
S
Reports Are
Available on:
Criminal Justice
Juvenile Justice
Programs
Child Welfare
programs
Education
Mental Health
Substance Abuse taxpayer dollars
programs
Prevention
reduce
…More on the way that
crime and save
taxpayers
money.
BEST 2013
Crime
Policies to
Adopt
Thank You
Appendix
Prison is Increasingly Used for Violent Offenders
Change in Average Violent Felony Risk Scores Since 1990
+35%
+30%
+25%
+20%
+15%
Since 1990, the average
violent felony risk score of
offenders released from
Washington prisons has
increased more than 30%.
+10%
+5%
+0%
-5%
1990
1995
2000
Year
2005
2010
Crime Rates: Violent & Property
Washington and United States: 1980 to 2010
Violent Crime Rate*
10
9
90
8
80
United States
7
70
6
60
5
50
4
40
3
2
1
0
20
Violent crime has dropped since the
mid-1990s, and Washington’s rate
remains lower than the US.
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Washington
30
Washington
1980
Property Crime Rate*
100
10
0
2010
United States
Property crime rates have declined,
and the gap between Washington
and the US has narrowed.
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
* Crime rates are the number of reported crimes to police per 1,000 resident population. Source: WASPC and FBI.
2010
Juvenile Arrest Rates: Closing the Gap
Juvenile Arrest Rate
(arrests per 1,000 10-17 year olds)
Long-Term Trends in Juvenile Arrest Rates (1985 to 2010)
60
Washington
50
40
30
20
10
0
United States
 Prior to the mid-1990s, Washington’s juvenile
arrest rate was consistently higher than the US rate.
 The gap started to close in the mid-1990s.
 Today, the two juvenile arrest rates are virtually identical.
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Year
DOC Risk-Level Classifications of Adult Offenders:
The Timing of Recidivism in Washington State for…
…a New Felony Conviction
…a Violent Felony Conviction
4.0%
4.0%
Classified by DOC as:
High, Violent
3.5%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
High,
2.0% NonViolent
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
Classified by DOC as:
High, Violent
Moderate
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.5%
0.0%
Lower
1
6
0.0%
12
18
24
30
36
Months After Being At-Risk in the Community
1
6
12
18
24
30
36
Months After Being At-Risk in the Community
Source: WSIPP analysis of data from the Administrative Office of the Courts and the Department of Corrections
Big Picture
Principles
Application in WA
Caveat
Keeping Track of Results:
the Incarceration-Crime Relationship
(non-drug crimes per 1,000 pop)
Washington’s Crime Rate
75
1980
70
‘88
‘86
‘89
‘90 ‘85 ‘91 ‘92
‘81
65
‘82
60
55
‘87
‘83 ‘84
‘93 ‘94
‘95
‘96
‘97
‘98
‘04
‘03
‘05
‘99
50
‘00 ‘02
2006
‘01
45
2007
2008
40  Crime is now falling without expensive 2010
increases in incarceration rates.
2009
2011
Key Development:
 The long-term link between
incarceration and crime in WA
appears to have changed, favorably,
around 2006.
35
30
 Better public policies have had a role in
the improved results.
1
2
3
Washington’s Incarceration Rate (ADP per 1,000 pop)
4
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Big Picture
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
Evidence-Based Community Supervision of Adult Offenders:
Three Findings from WSIPP Research Reviews
Change in
Criminal
Recidivism
Intensive
Supervision:
SurveillanceOriented
(14)*
Intensive
Supervision:
TreatmentOriented
(17)*
Supervision:
Focused on Risk,
Treatment, &
Response
(6)*
+1%
-10%
($1.93 b/c)
*The number of high-quality research studies on which this finding is based.
-16%
($6.83 b/c)
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Big Picture
The ROI Numbers Application in WA
Results
Evidence-Based Polcies that
Reduce Crime and Save Money:
—four principles that improve the odds of success—
1. Risk
More crime can be avoided when policies focus on
higher-risk (rather than lower-risk) offender populations.
2. Treatment (delivered with fidelity)
Benefit-cost evidence indicates that some policies work and
others do not. Careful selection and implementation needed.
3. Swift and Certain Apprehension/Punishment
Clear evidence (for crime deterrence) for certainty,
but not for severity of punishment.
4. Budget Drivers (aka: incentives)
Deliver savings to taxpayers by tying policies to budget drivers
(e.g. fiscal notes & caseloads); incentive funding formulas.
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