Transcript Introduction to Complexity Science

Introduction to
Complexity Science
Engineered Complexity
Engineered Complexity
Seth Bullock, 2006
Today’s World
Today’s world is massively interconnected at
an unprecedented scale.
 Globalisation:
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Underpinned by advances in ICT:
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Telecoms, internet, satellites, logistics, etc.
…further large-scale interconnection:
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International tourism, trade, terrorism, etc.
Digital NHS, UK Air-Traffic Control Centre,
Worldwide University Network, SETI@Home
Complexity-related problems are rife.
Seth Bullock, 2006
The Net
The internet is growing at a fantastic rate.
 1 in 6 people are estimated to be online.
 This figure has doubled since early 2000
 The net comprises 180+ million hosts.
Measuring growth of a huge, decentralised
system such as the web is difficult.
Understanding its structure is even harder.
How can we map, model & manage the
web?
Seth Bullock, 2006
Big Science
Genome analysis is generating massive
amounts of data at an increasing rate.
In order to unlock the mysteries of health &
disease, we will need to build new tools that
allow us to manage the huge amounts of
complex data, picture it, and model it.
International collaboration amongst
scientists will be increasingly important.
New & better infrastructures are needed.
Seth Bullock, 2006
Data Overload
Satellites orbiting the earth and other remote
sensors are generating millions of images.
 biodiversity, global warming, destructive
weather patterns, desertification, etc.
ATMs, point-of-sale machines, etc.,
generate similar amounts of consumer data.
How can we efficiently (automatically)
analyse this data in order to extract useful
information from it?
Seth Bullock, 2006
Collaborative Enterprise
Firms increasingly collaborate in extended
enterprises that are very difficult to manage.
a complex and dynamic web of partners,
customers, suppliers and markets.
Tracking, predicting, and influencing the
changing inter-dependencies is hard:
 products, product parts, part producers,
product consumers, product markets, etc.
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Seth Bullock, 2006
Health Systems
The massive digital health record databases
being built in hospitals and clinics could:
help integrate patient treatment
 fuel comparative studies
Complex issues…
 infra-structure – security & safety
 data protection & ownership
 “relevance” in information retrieval
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Seth Bullock, 2006
Issues
For complex engineered systems, the same
issues arise repeatedly:
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design, control, management
massive quantities of data…
…but poorly understood
robustness, reliability, resilience
agility, flexibility, usability
dynamic, changing, evolving
Seth Bullock, 2006
Complexity: Friend or Foe?
For most engineers, complexity/chaos is a
property that needs to be extinguished.
 e.g., Reynolds number: R=ρdv/η
What is the Reynolds number for…
 London Stock Exchange? McDonalds?
If we knew, would we be able to “set it”?
Complex systems may also solve problems:
 swarm intelligence, the edge of chaos…
Seth Bullock, 2006
Living with Complexity
If we are to exploit complexity in engineered
systems, we will need a changed mindset:
 strict hierarchy
 accountability
 provability
 “fire-and-forget” mentality
Perhaps we are on the way…
 ecosystems mindsets, life-cycles, webs…
Seth Bullock, 2006
Grand Challenges?
in vivo–in silico: the virtual worm…
science for global ubiquitous computing
memories for life: managing information
over a human lifetime
scalable ubiquitous computing systems
the architecture of brain and mind
dependable systems evolution
journeys in non-classical computation
Seth Bullock, 2006
More Generally…
progressing post-genomic science
 epidemiological modelling in a complex
dynamic world
 understanding the dynamics of markets,
economies, etc., in a globalised world
 building effective digital corporate systems
 facilitating collaboration in large systems
 managing large-scale design/construction
 achieving intelligent infrastructure
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Seth Bullock, 2006