Transcript PC-atelier 16. Juli 2002

IUMI 2010 ZURICH
Facts and Figures Committee Report
Cedric CHARPENTIER
Chairman, F&F Committee
C.U.O. Cargo AXA Corporate Solutions
September 13, 2010
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Report of the F&F Committee
Committee Members
• Dieter Berg
- Germany
• Cédric Charpentier
- France, Chairman
• Darren Farr
- U.K.
• Pamela Frood
- U.K.
• Philip Graham
- U.K.
• Patrizia Kern
- Switzerland
• Henry Newman
- U.S.A.
• Astrid Seltmann
- Nordic, Secr. & Vice Chairman
• Massimo Spadoni
- Italy
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
2
Report of the F&F Committee
Committee Members
• Javier Alonso
- Spain
• Dieter Berg
- Germany
• Darren Farr
- U.K.
• Pamela Frood
- U.K.
• Philip Graham
- U.K.
• Vivian Ho
- Hong Kong
• Patrizia Kern
- Switzerland, Chairman
• Patrick Lecerf
- France
• Henry Newman
- U.S.A.
• Astrid Seltmann
- Nordic, Secr. and Vice Chairman
• Massimo Spadoni
- Italy
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
3
Report of the F&F Committee
Documentations
• Spring Statistics
 Spring meeting
• Hull, Energy and Cargo Fact Sheets
 Conference
• Global shipping market trends
 Conference
• Global marine insurance report
 Conference
• Hull repair cost index Working Group
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
4
Global Shipping Market Trends
Cedric CHARPENTIER
Chairman, F&F Committee
C.U.O. Cargo AXA Corporate Solutions
September 13, 2010
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
5
Conclusion 2009 = Intro 2010
•
Global trade:
–
–
•
Sustainable recovery?
–
•
still not clear where from and when
Shipping industry:
–
–
–
•
2009 hit the bottom
2010 weak recovery
fighting for survival with at least 2 year expected depressed market
ahead
deep modification of the face of the world fleet expected
but medium and long term prospects are intact
Numerous and deep impacts on the marine insurance
industry
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
6
After the sharpest decline for more
than 70 years, global economy is on its
way to recovery…
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
7
Sharp recovery of Global Economy expected
in 2010… but already a peak?
10%
ANNUAL GDP GROWTH
2001 - 2011
Emerging and developing
economies
8%
+6,8%
+6,4%
6%
+4,6%
+4,3%
World
4%
+2,6%
+2,5%
2%
+2,4%
0%
-0,6%
Advanced
economies
-2%
-3,2%
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
-4%
8
World Trade in volume is set to vigorously
rebound in 2010...
25
20
Volume of World Merchandise Export
2005 - 2010
15
Annual % Change
+ 6,5%
+ 6,0%
+ 2,1%
%
10
+ 9,5%
+ 8,5%
5
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
-5
20
05
0
-10
-12,2%
-15
Years
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
9
..combined with the recent resurgence
in Commodity prices…
250
200
REAL COMMODITIES PRICES
2001-2010
(Index 100=2005)
Oil
Metal
150
100
Agricultural
Raw Mat
50
0
01
0
2
02
0
2
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
03
0
2
04
0
2
05
0
2
06
0
2
07
0
2
08
0
2
09
0
2
10
0
2
10
…result in a positive outlook for Global Trade in
value terms: return to pre-crisis level in 2011?
16 000
WORLD TRADE VALUES
+ 16%
2001 - 2011 (in billion dollars )
14 000
+ 8%
- 23%
+ 16%
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
4 000
11
The shipping industry reacted strongly
to 2009 turmoil but short term
prospects remain challenging…
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
12
Whilst World Trade collapsed, world fleet grew
by 7% in 2009 generating strong overcapacity…
100%
mGT
+ 92%
90%
WORLD MERCHANT FLEET of ships of 300gt and over
Evolution of GT, DWT and Number of ships between 1995 and 2010 (1st of Jan)
80%
70%
mDWT
+ 81%
60%
50%
Nb Ships
+ 29%
40%
30%
20%
10%
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
98
19
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
19
97
19
96
19
19
95
0%
13
…and World Fleet is still expected to grow in
2010 by another 7%.
World Tonnage Additions and Reductions
120 000
1999-2010* (in mDwt)
* Est. based on Q1
100 000
Reductions
Additions
60 000
40 000
20 000
*
10
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
01
20
20
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
20
00
20
99
0
19
mDwt
80 000
14
The market will have to absorb 40% of existing
fleet in the next 3 years…
600
570.4
ORDERBOOK - Evolution by type of ships
566.7
in million of DWT
Others
500
460.5
Container
363.8
400
General
cargo
LNG/LPG
300
Bulk
Carriers
222.8
177.8
200
100.1
129.3
Tankers
100
01
0
A
pr
.2
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
20
04
20
03
0
20
02
mDWT
263.5
15
…resulting in a quite gloomy and unstable
freight market.
1400
FREIGHT MARKET (indices by month) -
1275
January 2001 to April 2010
1200
Index 1972 = 100
1000
Time Charter Index (1 to 2 months)
General Freight Index
800
Grain Freight Index
600
400
200
177
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
20
03
20
02
20
01
0
16
Conclusion
• Worldwide economy and Global Trade:
• Stronger recovery in 2010 than expected…
• …but uncertainty beyond :
• a strong recovery, a long lasting crisis or a double-dip?
• or all of them depending on the geographical area?
• At least 2 years to reach pre-crisis level
• Shipping industry
• Despite strong reactions…
• …overcapacity is here to stay and casts a cloud over
the years to come for the shipping industry
• Numerous and deep impacts marine insurance
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
17