Transcript 2005 EPRI PowerPoint Template

Generation Technologies in
a Carbon-constrained World
Steve Specker
President & CEO
October 2005
Objectives
Provide an objective and factual
framework for discussing generation
technologies and investment decisions
in a carbon-constrained world
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2
Framework Overview
• Levelized cost of electricity
– Standard EPRI methodology
– 2004 costs and $’s
• Two key uncertainties
– Future “cost” of CO2
– Future price of natural gas
• Two technology portfolios
– 2010 time-period
– 2020 time-period
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
3
Comparative Costs of Generating Options
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
4
40
50
Pulverized Coal in 2010 Time Period
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
PC w/o cap
60
50
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
5
40
50
Natural Gas Combined Cycle in
2010 Time Period
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
NGCC@$8
70
NGCC@$6
60
50
NGCC@$4
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
6
40
50
Natural Gas Price Volatility…A Huge Issue
H E N R Y H U B N A T U R A L G A S P R IC E W E E K L Y D A T A
$14
($ /M M B T U )
D e c lin in g p ro d u c tio n fo r s ix q u a rte rs
C o ld e s t N o v/D e c o n
R e c o rd /S .T . D e m a n d >
S .T . S u p p ly
$12
H u rric a n e
K a trin a
M a s s ive C o ld F ro n t a n d
W e ll F re e ze O ff
$10
$8
M a rc h 1 9 9 3
B lizza rd
J a n u a ry
1996
B lizza rd
H u rric a n e
Iva n
E a rly W in te r
1 9 9 6 /9 7
T e c h n ic a l
F a c to rs
$6
H u rric a n e
A n d re w
J a n u a ry 1 9 9 4
B lizza rd
H u rric a n e
G e o rg e s
$4
$2
M ild W in te r
H u rric a n e O p a l
$0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
E x c e s s S to ra g e
a n d M ild W in te r
H u rric a n e
D anny
1998
1999
S o u rc e : N G W a n d E V A , In c .
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
7
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Future Natural Gas Prices…a Key Uncertainty
• Prices can range from the Ceiling Price (oil) to the Floor Price (coal)
• Gas prices between 2005 and 2007 will likely be set at the Ceiling Price
• Post-2007 the issue is debatable, and dependent upon outlook for LNG
$/MMBTU
18
Actual
Projected
16
14
12
10
Ceiling Price Range
8
6
4
Floor Price
2
0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
8
Potential Range
in Henry Hub
Gas Prices
(Nominal $)
Comparative Costs of 2010 Generating Options
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
$6/mmbtu will be used as
floor price for natural gas
90
80
70
NGCC@$6
60
PC w/o cap
50
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
9
40
50
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle in 2010
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
IGCC w/o cap
80
70
NGCC@$6
60
PC w/o cap
50
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
10
40
50
PC vs. IGCC with Improvements
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
Base IGCC COE
60
50
Gap between COE for IGCC and PC
40
Base PC COE
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
11
40
50
PC vs. IGCC with Improvements
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
1.
90
Use more efficient, but higher cost IGCC
80
70
Base IGCC COE
60
50
Gap between COE for IGCC and PC
40
Base PC COE
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
12
40
50
PC vs. IGCC with Improvements
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
1.
2.
90
Use more efficient, but higher cost IGCC
Eliminate spare gasifier
80
70
Base IGCC COE
60
50
Gap between COE for IGCC and PC
40
Base PC COE
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
13
40
50
PC vs. IGCC with Improvements
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
1.
2.
3.
90
80
More efficient, but higher cost IGCC
Eliminate spare gasifier
Larger, more efficient gas turbine
70
Base IGCC COE
60
50
Remaining gap between COE for IGCC and PC
40
Base PC COE
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
14
40
50
U.S. Wind Plant Capacity Factors, 2004
Capacity Factor, %
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sites Ranked by Increasing Capacity Factors
Source: EIA; EPRI Program 67 Newsletter, Energy Markets and Generation
Response – Update on New Power Plants, September 2005
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
15
Wind Generation in 2010 Time Period
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
110
Wind@20%CF
100
90
80
Wind@29%CF
70
60
Wind@42%CF
50
40
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
16
40
50
Wind Generation in 2010 Time Period
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
110
100
90
80
Wind@29%CF
70
60
50
40
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
17
40
50
Cost Sensitivities of Future Nuclear Generation
Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
1,700
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2,000
Capital Cost, $/kW
18
2,500
Nuclear Generation
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
60
50
Nuclear@$1700/kw
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
19
40
50
Non-CO2 Emitting Technologies in
2010 Time Period
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
Wind
70
Biomass
60
50
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
20
40
50
Comparative Costs of 2010 Generating Options
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
IGCC w/o cap
80
Wind@29% CF
70
NGCC@$6
Biomass
60
PC w/o cap
50
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
21
40
50
U. S. Capacity Additions… 2005 to 2010
2 ,2 0 0
N e w E n g la n d
1 ,9 4 4
345
871
4 ,3 1 2
1 ,7 2 9
3 ,6 8 9
275
255
510
1 ,7 5 4
1 ,1 3 6
2 ,8 5 9
3 ,5 1 3
434
1 ,5 5 9
4 ,7 2 8
61
258
1 ,7 8 4
1 ,1 7 3
0
90
376
1 ,0 8 3
315
1 ,5 4 6
804
2 ,0 4 4
2 ,0 3 2
1 0 ,0 9 1
27
1 ,9 8 2
1 ,2 0 0
298
1 ,2 7 0
1 ,1 6 0
1 ,2 4 0
3 8 4 2 ,5 5 2
5 ,0 1 4
N e w C a p a city
1 ,5 0 1
in M W
7 ,9 5 8
T o tal = 7 8,3 86
Over 78 GW
of New Capacity
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
22
3 ,0 0 1 a n d A b o ve
1 ,5 0 1 to 3 ,0 0 0
5 0 1 to 1 ,5 0 0
0 to 5 0 0
U. S. Capacity Additions by Year and
Technology, 1999 to 2014
Capacity, MW
60,000
Other
Wind
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Retirements
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
1999
2000
2001
2002
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2003
2004
2005
2006
23
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
What’s Possible
in 2020
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
24
What’s Possible: Pulverized Coal w/o Capture
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
PC w/o cap 2010
70
60
PC w/o cap 2020
50
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
25
40
50
What’s Possible: IGCC w/o Capture
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
IGCC w/o cap 2010
70
60
IGCC, w/o cap 2020
50
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
26
40
50
What’s Possible: PC with capture/transport/storage
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
PC w/cap/t/s 2020
60
PC w/o cap 2020
50
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
27
40
50
What’s Possible: IGCC with capture/transport/storage
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
IGCC, w/o cap 2020
70
60
IGCC w/cap/t/s 2020
50
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
28
40
50
What’s Possible: Comparison of IGCC and PC
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
IGCC, w/o cap 2020
70
PC w/cap/t/s 2020
PC w/o cap 2020
60
IGCC w/cap/t/s 2020
50
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
29
40
50
What’s Possible: Natural Gas Combined Cycle
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
NGCC@$6 (2010)
70
60
NGCC@$6 (2020)
50
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
30
40
50
What’s Possible: Wind Generation
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
Wind@29% CF in 2010
70
60
50
Wind@29% CF in 2020
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
31
40
50
What’s Possible: Biomass
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
Biomass 2010
60
50
Biomass 2020
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
32
40
50
What’s Possible: Comparative Costs in 2020
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
PC w/cap/t/s
NGCC@$6
60
50
IGCC w/cap/t/s
Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
33
40
50
Comparative Costs in 2010
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
IGCC w/o cap
80
Wind@29% CF
70
NGCC@$6
Biomass
60
PC w/o cap
50
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
34
40
50
What’s Possible: Comparative Costs in 2020
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
An Extraordinary Opportunity
to Develop a Low-carbon Portfolio
80
70
PC w/cap/t/s
NGCC@$6
60
50
IGCC w/cap/t/s
Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
35
40
50
Closing Thoughts
• Four key uncertainties impacting near-term decisions on
new generation:
– Future cost of CO2
– Future price of natural gas
– Spent nuclear fuel storage
– CO2 capture and storage
• Extraordinary opportunity to develop and demonstrate a
very low emissions portfolio of generation technologies for
operation by 2020.
Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
36