Transcript Aging in North Carolina

Health, Age, and Labor Force
Disruption of Older Workers
Victor W. Marshall, Ph.D.
Director, UNC Institute on Aging
Aging is Good Business: The Silvering Workforce
UNC Greensboro
April 8, 2009
Overview of Presentation
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
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Aging of Population and Graying of the
Workforce
Why older workers want to stay employed
Why we need to facilitate employment of
older workers
Stereotypes about Older Workers and
Health
Health and Labor Force Participation
What we need to do
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Trends in Workforce Aging
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Global Aging of Populations
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US population is relatively younger
• high numbers of younger immigrants
• higher fertility rates than U.S. born population
• decrease the median age

Median age of the US labor force increasing
• 1986- 35.4
• 2006 -40.8
• 2016- 42.1 ( projected)
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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U.S. Population Pyramids
2000
2020
Source of charts: U.S. Census Bureau, “65+ in the United States: 2005,” December 2005.
4
Projected Population Changes
2005-2025
• The population age 25-54 will grow
from about 126 million to almost
131 million.
• The population age 55 and over will
grow at a much faster rate, from
about 67 million to nearly 105
million.
Source: Patrick Purcell, Older Workers: Employment and Retirement Trends, CRS Report
for Congress, September 14, 2005.
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Employment Trends: Ages 25-54
Labor Force Participation Rates, 1950-2005
100
90
80
Percent
70
60
50
40
Males
Females
30
20
10
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sources of data: Patrick Purcell, Older Workers: Employment and Retirement Trends, CRS
Report for Congress, September 14, 2005; U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the
United States, 2007.
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Employment Trends: Ages 55-64
Labor Force Participation Rates, 1950-2005
100
90
80
Percent
70
60
50
40
Males
Females
30
20
10
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sources of data: Patrick Purcell, Older Workers: Employment and Retirement Trends, CRS
Report for Congress, September 14, 2005; U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the
United States, 2007.
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Employment Trends: Ages 65+
Labor Force Participation Rates, 1950-2005
100
90
80
Percent
70
60
50
40
Males
Females
30
20
10
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sources of data: Patrick Purcell, Older Workers: Employment and Retirement Trends, CRS
Report for Congress, September 14, 2005; U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the
United States, 2007.
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Percent Increase in Employment
by Age and Gender, 1977-2007
Greater % increase in older workers, older female workers.
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Projected Graying of the
Workforce
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Older Workers Expect to Stay in
the Workforce
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70 to 75% of Americans expect to work to
some extent after retirement (Merrill
Lynch, 2005;Rutgers, 2008).
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With deteriorating economic conditions 45%
of Americans believe they will retire at a
later age than they originally expected
(Gallup, 2008)
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Older Workers: Profile
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Older workers tend to be healthier, more
prosperous, and better educated than their retired
counterparts.

Many factors influence decisions to remain in the
labor force.
• Individual or family financial situations, based on general
economic conditions, access to Social Security and pension
benefits, and the availability of health insurance.
• Personal situations, e.g., health and their enjoyment of
work.
Sources: Patrick Purcell, Older Workers: Employment and Retirement Trends, CRS Report
for Congress, September 14, 2005; U.S. Census Bureau, “65+ in the United States: 2005,”
December 2005.
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Older Workers and nontraditional work arrangements
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As they transition to retirement, older workers are
more likely to work part-time, be self-employed, or
engage in other nontraditional employment
arrangements.
Sources: Patrick Purcell, Older Workers: Employment and Retirement Trends, CRS Report
for Congress, September 14, 2005; U.S. Census Bureau, “65+ in the United States: 2005,”
December 2005.
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Why Work Beyond “Normal”
Retirement?
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AARP study of work after retirement:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Need the income – 76%
Enjoy working/stay connected to others – 70%
Need for health benefits – 61%
Desire to stay mentally active, keep learning,
and be useful – 52%
(AARP 2008)
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Limited Savings for Older Workers*
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Savings & Investments, workers aged 55+
•
•
•
•
•
•
Less than $10,000
28 %
$ 25,000
8%
$ 50,000
7%
$ 100,000
16 %
$ 250,000
18 %
$ 250,000 +
23 %
• Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, 2008. (excludes value of home & pension plans)
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Changes in Retirement Benefits
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Changes in Retirement Benefits
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Over the last 2 decades companies have shifted from
traditional pensions to 401(k)’s, transferring retirement costs
from companies to employees. (Greenhouse, 2008)
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“For too many Americans, 401(k) plans have become little
more than a high stakes crapshoot.” (George Miller, Chair,
House Education and Labor Committee, Feb. 2009)
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Workers have lost $2 trillion in 401(k)’s in the last 15
months. (Congressional Budget Office, 2009)
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“Just social security and 401(k) plans will not give retirees
enough money.” (Alicia Munnell, Center for Retirement
Research, Boston College, 2009)
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Reemployment Experiences of
Older Workers
Age group
Reemployment rate
20-24
25-54
55-64
65+
66%
75%
61%
25%
*Source: GAO, 2007
 Older workers are more likely than younger workers to be
displaced
 Less likely to get another job
 It takes them longer to get another job
 Workers under 50 are 42% more likely to get an interview
than those 50+ (Lahey, 2005)
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Reemployment Consequences
for older workers
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Greater earning losses than younger workers
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Dislocated workers with 20 years of experience find jobs
paying between 20-40% less than their previous job
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Fewer employment opportunities in a narrower range of
industries and occupations than younger workers(Heidkamp
and Van Horn, 2008)
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Older men, especially those laid off in male dominated
manufacturing industries, are disproportionately represented
in the long-term unemployed (lasting more that 6 months)
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Older Adult Unemployment,
2007-2009
Source: www.urban.org/retirement_policy/url.cfm?ID=411846 (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2009b data)
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Older Workers’ Part-time and
Full-time Employment
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Between 1990 and 1995 increase in part-time work and
decline in full time work
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Between 1995 and 2007 older workers on full-time
schedules doubled, while part-time workers increased
only 19%

By 2007 56% of older workers full time; trend likely to
continue (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2008)
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Older Workers’ Part-Time and
Full-Time Employment
Part-time
Full-time
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Why we need to facilitate
employment among older workers
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Many of them want to work or need to work
We need people to work longer because the large
baby boom cohort is passing into retirement
The need is greater in some sectors than others
Labor force disruption has negative health
consequences
I WILL NOW FOCUS ON THE WORK AND HEALTH
RELATIONSHIP
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Barriers: Ageism and Age
Discrimination
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National studies of employers show barriers to hiring and
retaining older workers:
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Employers wrongly assume older workers are more expensive
due to
•
•
•
•
•
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Compensation
Costs of health insurance
Costs of training
Lower production and lower quality work than younger workers
Resistance to change
Employers also fear age discrimination lawsuits in laying off
recently hired older workers (GAO, 2007)
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Countering Age Discrimination
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Ageism (attitudinal) is not the same as Age
Discrimination (behavioral)
Perceived age discrimination alone can lead to
mental health problems (Yuan 2007)
“Older” job seekers 40% less likely to get interview
(Lahey 2005)
Ageism related to concerns about health and ability
to adapt to technological and organizational change
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How true are the stereotypes?
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Realistically, there are agingassociated health issues
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But these are too frequently
exaggerated
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Percent of Population that is Obese (BMI equal to or greater than 30)
by Age, Selected Years.
40
35
30
Percent (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
25-44
45-64
1988-1994
Data source: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
65-74
75 and over
2001-2004
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Disability Prevalence and the Need for
Assistance by age: 2005
80 and ov e r
75 to 79
70 to 74
Age
65 to 69
Ne e ds Assistance
Se v e re Disability
Any disability
55 to 64
45 to 54
25 to 44
15 to 24
Unde r 15
0
20
40
60
80
Pe rce nt
Note: The need for assistance with activities of daily living was not asked of children under 6 years.
Source: Brault, Matthew W. “Americans with Disabilities: 2005” (2008) Current Population Reports in U.S. Census
Bureau, survey of Income and Program Participation, June-September 2005.
Life Expectancy at Age 65 by Sex and Race/Ethnicity,
1950-2003
25
20
Years
15
10
5
0
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
Black Male
92
19
90
19
88
19
Data Source: The National Vital Statistic System
86
19
White Female
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
50
19
White Male
Black Female
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Average Length of Hospital Stay
(in days) by Age, 1970-2004
16
14
Average length of stay in days
65-74
75-84
85 and over
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
19
70 972 974 976 978 980 982 984 986 988 990 992 994 996 998 000 002 004
Data Source: The National Hospital Discharge Survey
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Current Cigarette Smoking by Age and Sex,
1965-2005
35
30
65- 74 Male
65- 74 Female
75 and over Male
75 and over Female
Percent (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
Data source: National Health Interview Survey
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Older Adults Report Being
Healthier
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Older adults reporting
excellent or good health
Age
2008
55-64
80%
65+
66%
Source: National Center for
Health Statistics, 2008.
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Schematic:performance ability and age
most people will retire or reach very advanced age before
declines in ability fall below levels needed for their job
Ability
Needed for Job
Performance
Ability level of
worker
Age
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Are Older Workers Less
Productive?
•
There is no evidence that older workers’ performance and the
importance of their accumulated knowledge do not
compensate for their higher cost (ILO, 2005).
•
…”Older workers can be as productive as younger workers,
especially if we increase job flexibility and design jobs
suitable for them” (Victor Marshall, UNC-Institute on Aging,
2008).
Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging
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Chesley Sullenberg: An Older
Worker (Age 58)
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Pilot license at age 14; “Best aviator in class, Air Force
Academy; Commercial pilot since 1980
Co-pilot, Jeffrey Skiles, Age 49, flying since age of 15; 20
years experience as commercial pilot
Prior to 1959: no mandatory retirement age in US for pilots
1959: imposed age 60 but in 2007 FAA approved age 65
(LICAO requires one pilot to be under age 60 for
international)
Research on Air Traffic Controllers: Experience can
compensate for declines in cognitive function that might
otherwise appear with aging (Nunes & Kramer (2009), Journal of
Experimental Psychology: Applied 15 (1): 12-24
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Health and Labor Force
Disruption
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The relationship between retirement and health
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Health problems cause labor force disruption
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Labor force disruption causes health problems
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Recent reports show U.S. workers aged 50+ experience a
disproportionate share of involuntary job loss
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Consequences of Loss of Work
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Loss of earnings– a social determinant of health
Poorer job quality in replacement jobs
Forfeiture of health and pension benefits
Reduced social involvement
Harmful health behaviors
Anxiety and other mental health problems
Increased physical disability at two years post-loss (stronger
effects in women than men)
Source: Gallo, et al., and several studies they cite in
Research on Aging 31 (3), May 2009
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Consequences of Instability in Labor
Force Participation: The Bell Canada
Retiree Study
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MALE AND FEMALE , ‘early retirees’ from Bell Canada who
experienced more post-retirement unemployment periods
(greater labor force instability) and experienced higher
perceived stress
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The effects were stronger for women than for men
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MEN who anticipated working post-retirement from Bell but
did not (violated expectations) were more likely to report life
stress and low life satisfaction
Source: V. Marshall, P. J. Clarke, & P. Ballantyne. (2001. Instability in the retirement transition, Research
on Aging 23 (4): 379-409
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What we need to do:
To promote working longer
Reverse the idealization of early retirement
(we will need the labor of older workers for
economic growth)
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Create Flexible Working Arrangements
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What we need to do:
To promote health
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Create age-friendly workplaces
• Age-mixed teams
• Mentoring
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Better ergonomics
Retrain and Reassign for age-appropriate
jobs
Increase workplace health promotion
programs
Training for transitions into retirement
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Aging Workforce Initiatives,
UNC Institute on Aging
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Applied research, e.g., case studies at the company level
Aging Workforce Interest Group
Seminars
Digital Library
“Pub Alerts” on the aging workforce, Frontline Healthcare
Workers, Health Promotion and Healthy Aging, and Lifelong
Learning and Engagement
Available at www.aging.unc.edu or by contacting Dr. Peter J.
Stein, Associate Director, Aging Workforce Initiatives
[email protected]
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