Transcript Waccamaw Regional Economic Outlook

Waccamaw Regional
Economic Outlook
Summer and Fall 2011
July 19, 2011
Dr. Rob Salvino
Coastal Carolina University
Grand Strand Economic Outlook: Summer and Fall 2011
Presented to: The Waccamaw Regional Council of Governments' Grand Strand Economic Outlook Board
Prepared and Presented by Dr. Rob Salvino, Research Economist, BB&T Center for Economic and Community Development
E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Administration, Coastal Carolina University
July 2011
Value
Airport Deplanements (thousands)
Port Tonnage (thousands)
Occupancy Rate (Full Week)
Average Daily Rate (Full Week)
Accomodations Tax Revenue ($millions)
Admissions Tax Revenue ($millions)
Regional SF Building Permits
Regional MF Building Permits
Retail Sales ($millions)
Georgetown County
Horry County
Employment (thousands)
Georgetown County
Horry County
Unemployment Rate
Georgetown County
Horry County
Percent Change from Previous Year
History
Previous
Quarter
Spring 2011
Forecast
Current
Quarter
Summer 2011
Forecast
Next
Quarter
Fall 2011
History
Previous
Quarter
Spring 2011
Forecast
Current
Quarter
Summer 2011
Forecast
Next
Quarter
Fall 2011
239.4
95.0
54.9
94.5
3.8
3.1
397
39
327.3
126.1
79.2
136.3
9.5
3.4
324
28
228.4
112.9
43
68.1
2.9
1.6
217
29
3.84
210.2
1.33
5.4
31.02
4.91
-17.5
-16.1
5.75
296.8
-1.27
10.7
0.0
0.0
-3.1
-35.5
3.8
145.7
7.11
3.5
10.0
0.0
-31.6
16.7
15.2
14.1
4
6
0.0
0
$
$
$ 357.9
$ 2,312.5
$
$
$ 366.4
$ 2,920.6
$
$
$ 295.8
$ 2,020.6
27.1
119.6
27.6
126.5
27
118.4
1.4
2.1
0.4
0.5
0.6
1
10.6
10.6
10.3
10.2
10.6
10.9
-1.2
-1.2
-1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
Notes: Spring quarter is March - May, Summer is June - August, Fall is September - November, Winter is December - February. Retail Sales, Accomodations Tax Revenue and
Admissions Tax Revenue represent the period of business activity. For example, Accomodations Taxes for Summer represent the business activity incurrec during the Summer quarter.
Percent change from previous year is relative to the same quarter from the previous year. For example, percent change for Summer 2010 is the percent change between Summer 2009 and
Summer 2010. Rate given is absolute change for: Occupancy Rate, ADR and Unemployment Rates. For example, the given change for the Occupancy Rate during Summer 2009 is simply the
Summer 2010 Occupancy Rate minus the Summer 2009 Occupancy Rate. Reporting delays skew Retail Sales Year-over-Year comparisons.
Grand Strand Economic Outlook: Summer and Fall 2011
Questions may be directed to Dr. Rob Salvino, 843-349-2719, [email protected]
Real GDP Growth
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
3.7
1.7
2.5
3.1
1.9
2.8
2.2
2.5
US Real Retail Sales
1,050,000
1,000,000
950,000
900,000
850,000
800,000
750,000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
$948.2
$963.4
$972.4
$1.0
$1.03
$1.04
$1.041
$1.043
Airport Deplanements
360,000
320,000
280,000
240,000
200,000
160,000
120,000
80,000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q3
108.4
230.6
309.5
220.1
110.7
239.4
327.3
228.4
Port Tonnage
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
21.7
30.6
31.8
45.9
75.1
95.0
126.1
112.9
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Occupancy Rate
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
27.8
53.5
80.5
35.9
29.2
54.9
79.2
43.0
Average Daily Rate - Actual Transactions
140
120
100
80
60
40
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
$51.7
89.1
125.7
64.6
55.5
94.5
136.3
68.1
Accommodations Tax Revenue
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
$885.1
2.9
9.5
$2.7
964.5
3.78
9.5
2.94
5% State Admissions Tax Revenue
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
$1.43
2.97
3.44
1.59
1.29
3.12
3.44
1.60
Regional Single Family Building Permits
2,400
2,000
1,600
1,200
800
400
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
388
482
334
317
314
397
324
217
Regional Multi Family Building Permits
2,400
2,000
1,600
1,200
800
400
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
39
47
44
25
20
39
28
29
Regional Retail Sales
3,600
3,200
2,800
2,400
2,000
1,600
1,200
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
$1.73
2.34
3.10
2.32
2.12
2.67
3.29
2.32
Regional Employment Level
160,000
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
132.2
143.8
153.4
144.0
137.5
146.7
154.2
145.4
Regional Unemployment Rate
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
14.7
11.8
10.6
11.3
12.9
10.3
10.2
10.9