Transcript Document

Materials and the
Environment
Part 3 – Global Consumption
Patterns: Uneven but Changing
(Most recent update April 1, 2013)
The most economically developed
nations are also the highest
consuming nations.
As a result, only a few nations
consume by far the greatest share
of the world’s raw materials.
Selected Raw Material Consumption in the
United States and Western Europe
Source: UNEP. 2004. Vital Waste Graphics. GRID Arendal
(http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/waste/page/2857.aspx)
Consumption of Selected Raw Materials
Compared to Global Population
France, Germany, Japan, UK, & United States (5 countries)
Rest of World (188 countries)
Source: UNEP. 2004. Vital Waste Graphics. GRID Arendal
(http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/waste/page/2857.aspx)
As shown in the next several
graphics, developing nations are
beginning to consume a greater
share of the world’s resources as
their economies expand.
% of world consumption
% of world population
Steel
Aluminum
Copper
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
Developed
Countries*
12.1
11.3
10.7
46.8
51.3
26.6
68.4
63.9
44.8
66.9
58.1
42.6
Developing
Countries
87.9
88.7
89.3
53.2
48.7
73.4
31.6
36.1
55.2
33.1
41.9
57.4
% of world consumption
Lead
Zinc
Nickel
Industrial Wood
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
Developed
Countries
69.6
63.3
41.8
60.9
55.3
36.4
70.9
69.1
58.8
66.0
62.1
52.6
Developing
Countries
30.4
36.7
58.2
39.1
44.7
63.6
29.1
29.9
41.2
34.0
37.9
47.4
% of world consumption
Cement
Petroleum
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
Developed
Countries
34.6
25.3
11.3
56.8
51.4
49.0
Developing
Countries
65.4
74.7
88.7
43.2
48.6
51.0
Note that the developed
countries, that in 2010 comprised
10.7% of world population,
consumed a much greater
percentage of critical resources.
* Developed countries include the United
States, Canada, EU-15 nations, Australia,
New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea.
Percent of Global Consumption of Selected
Materials by Developed Nations*
Percent of world population, 2010
(10.7%)
Note that the portion of
critical materials consumed
by developed nations is
decreasing as developing
nations make economic
gains.
Steel
Aluminum
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Nickel
Cement
Wood
Petroleum
2010
2000
1990
0
20
40
60
80
100
* Developed nations included in consumption statistics are the United States,
Canada, EU-15 nations, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and S. Korea.
Percent of Global Consumption of Selected
Materials by the United States
Percent of world population, 2010
(4.5%)
2010 consumption in
the U.S. was very
much affected by the
great recession. Will
rebound.
Steel
Aluminum
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Nickel
Wood…
Cement
Petroleum
0
2010
2000
1990
1980
20
40
60
80
100
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (2013); U.S. Dept. of Energy, EIA (2013).
The shift in global consumption
patterns is led by China, but is by
no means limited to developments
in China alone.
China’s Gross Domestic
Product
(Expressed in Current $US)
Billions of Current U.S.
Dollars
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: World Bank, 2013.
2000
2010
China Consumption of Critical Materials
1990-2010
(percent of world consumption)
Material
1990
2000
2010
Steel
8.9
19.7
43.4
Aluminum
5.4
12.8
40.1
Copper
4.9
13.0
39.2
Nickel
4.2
6.6
29.3
Lead
7.4
9.0
44.1
Zinc
8.7
15.0
42.5
16.8
35.2
56.0
Wood (industrial wood)
7.1
14.7
16.4
Petroleum
3.6
6.3
11.1
Cement
Sources: USGS, IISI, OECD, USDOE-EIA (2013)
Raw material consumption
patterns will continue to shift as
nations now classified as
developing become increasingly
economically developed.
GDP* in the U.S. vs. Other
Economies, 2005
14
8
6
4
India
10
China
Trillion US $
12
2
0
U.S.
Japan
Germany
China
UK
France
Italy
Mexico
Brazil
India
Russia
* GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within a nation’s
borders. Values expressed in purchasing power parity.
Source: International Monetary Fund (2006)
GDP in the U.S. vs. Other
Economies, 2010
16
U.S.
Japan
Germany
China
UK
France
Italy
Mexico
Brazil
India
Russia
Trillion US $
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: International Monetary Fund (2013)
Projected GDP in the U.S. vs. Other
Economies, 2030
35
U.S.
Japan
Germany
China
UK
France
Italy
Mexico
Brazil
India
Russia
Trillion US $
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: PWC Macroeconomics, UK (2011)
Projected GDP in the U.S. vs. Other
Economies, 2050
60
U.S.
Japan
Germany
China
UK
France
Italy
Mexico
Brazil
India
Russia
Trillion US $
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: PWC Macroeconomics, UK (2011)
This translates to increasing
consumption of both goods and raw
materials in countries that have long
been characterized by low per-capita
consumption and large populations.
Fierce competition for the world’s
raw materials is certain, and
already gaining momentum.
So, in this environment, how is
the U.S. positioned for the future?
The U.S. is a net importer of most
categories of raw materials used to
support our economy and lifestyle.
The U.S. is a net importer of most
categories of raw materials used to
support our economy and lifestyle.
•
•
•
•
Most metals
Portland and masonry cement
Petroleum (the basis for most plastics)
Wood and wood products
In the slides that follow, net import
dependence is shown. Principal
suppliers are also listed in order of
importance, with the most important
supplier listed first (to the left), the
next most important to the right of
that, and so on.
Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a
Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011,
and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/
Material
Niobium
Manganese
Graphite
Strontium
Bauxite/Alumina
Fluorspar
Yttrium
Thallium
Rubidium
Asbestos
Quartz (crystal)
Thorium
Tantalum
% Imported
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)
Brazil, Canada, Germany, Russia
S. Africa, Gabon, China, Australia
China, Mexico, Canada, Brazil
Mexico, Germany
Jamaica, Brazil, Guinea, Australia
Mexico, China, S. Africa, Mongolia
China, Japan, France, UK
Russia, Germany, Kazakhstan
Canada
Canada, Zimbabwe
China, Japan, Russia
France, India, Canada, UK
China, Germany, Kazakhstan, Australia
Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a
Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and
by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/
Material
% Imported
Arsenic (trioxide)
100
Indium
100
Rare earth metals
100
Cesium
100
Mica (natural)
100
Iodine
99
Gallium
99
Gemstones
98
Germanium
90
Bismuth
89
Diamond (dust, grit)
89
Platinum Group
88
Antimony
87
Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)
Morocco, China, Belgium
China, Canada, Belgium, Japan
China, France, Estonia, Japan
Canada
China, Brazil, Belgium, India
Chile, Japan
Germany, Canada, UK, China
Israel, India, Belgium, S. Africa
China, Belgium, Russia, Germany
China, Belgium, UK
China, Ireland, S. Korea, Russia
Germany, S. Africa, UK, Canada
China, Mexico, Belgium
Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a
Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011,
and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/
Material
% Imported
Rhenium
87
Stone (dimension)
85
Potash
83
Lithium
80+
Vanadium
80
Barium (Barite)
78
Silicon carbide
76
Tin
76
Cobalt
75
Silver
75
Zinc
73
Titanium (sponge)
69
Titanium concentrates
68
Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)
Chile, Netherlands, Germany
Brazil, China, Italy, Turkey
Canada, Belarus, Russia
Argentina, Chile, China
S. Korea, Canada, Austria, Czech Rep.
China, India
China, Brazil, Vietnam, Norway
Peru, Bolivia, Indonesia, China
China, Norway, Russia, Canada
Mexico, Canada, Peru, Chile
Canada, Peru, Mexico, Ireland
Kazakhstan, Japan, China, Russia
S. Africa, Australia, Canada, Mzambique
Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a
Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and
by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/
Material
% Imported
Peat
63
Chromium
60
Palladium
56
Magnesium Cpds
53
Nickel
47
Ferrosilicon
42
Nitrogen (fixed)
41
Petroleum
40
Garnet (industrial)
Gold
Tungsten
Magnesium Metal
39
36
36
35
Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)
Canada
S. Africa, Kazakhstan, Russia, China
Russia, S. Africa, UK, Norway
China, Canada, Brazil, Austria
Canada, Russia, Australia, Norway
China, Russia, Venezuela, Canada
Trinidad/Tobago, Russia, Canada, Ukraine
Canada, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia,
Iraq, Nigeria, Mexico
India, Australia, China, Canada
Mexico, Canada, Colombia, Peru
China, Bolivia, Canada, Germany
Israel, China, Canada
Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a
Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011,
and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/
Material
% Imported
Copper
35
Perlite
27
Lumber (softwood)
25
Sulfur
24
Salt
22
Beryllium
21
Mica (scrap/flake)
20
Vermiculite
20
Gypsum
13
Phosphate rock
13
Aluminum
13
Iron and steel
9
Cement (Portland/msry)
6
Pumice
5
Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)
Chile, Canada, Peru, Mexico
Greece
Canada, Chile, Sweden, Germany
Canada, Mexico, Venezuela
Canada, Chile, Mexico, The Bahamas
Russia, Kazakhstan, Japan
Canada, China, India
China, S. Africa, Australia, Brazil
Canada, Mexico, Spain
Morocco, Peru
Canada, Russia, China, Mexico
Canada, EU, China, Mexico
Canada, China, S. Korea, Mexico
Greece, Mexico, Iceland, Montserrat
Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a
Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and
by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/
Material
% Imported
Diamond (industrial)
3
Lime
1
Stone (crushed)
1
Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)
Botswana, S. Africa, Russia, Nambia
Canada, Mexico
Canada, Mexico, The Bahamas
a/
U.S. Geological Survey. 2013. Mineral Commodity Summaries - 2012.
b/
Principal foreign sources arranged by most important supplier to the left, next
most important to the right of that, and so on.
c/
Petroleum data from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information
Administration 2013 (February).
d/
Data for construction lumber from RISI, Random Lengths, 2012, 2013.
The United States is also a net
importer of durable and nondurable goods of all kinds.
Europe and Japan are in much the
same situation.
The U.S. is a massive net importer
partly because many economically
accessible resources lie outside
U.S. borders . . .
. . . but also because
environmental regulations and
policies have created barriers to
domestic production and increased
associated costs.
The net result is a shift of
environmental impacts linked to
our consumption to locations
outside of the U.S.
Beyond ethical questions, there is
a developing problem.
While supplies of most raw
materials are unlikely to physically
run out, there are growing
concerns about availability.
In a 2011 global survey of 69
leading companies, resource
scarcity was identified as a
major concern in all
industries represented.
Source: European Technology Platform on Sustainable Mineral Resources. 2012.
(http://eurogeosurveys.org/assets/ETPSMR/SF2012/1.The%20contribution%20of%20ETP
%20SMR%20-%20Henryk%20Karas.pdf)
The European Environment Agency
described concerns this way:
“The world's stocks of natural resources are
already decreasing. A larger and richer global
population with increasing consumption needs
will make bigger demands for many things
including food, water and energy. In the
future, rising demand and falling supply could
intensify global competition for resources . . .
The European Environment Agency
described concerns this way:
. . . Growing long-term scarcity of minerals
and metals may induce us to turn to sources
hitherto deemed uneconomic. Expanding
mining has several environmental effects,
including changing landscapes, polluting water
and generating waste. Poorer quality mineral
reserves may mean that exploiting such
sources is less energy efficient.”
Source: European Environment Agency. 2011. (http://www.eea.europa.eu/signals/signals2011/earth-2050-global-megatrends/intensified-global-competition-for-decreasing)
Summary
• Per capita consumption of raw materials is far
•
•
•
higher in the most economically developed
countries than in countries that are not as
economically advanced.
The global economy is changing rapidly, with
many traditionally low-income countries now
experiencing rapid economic growth.
Economic expansion is affecting regions of the
world characterized by very large populations.
Consumption of raw materials of all kinds is
increasing very rapidly.
Summary
• Several high consuming countries, including the
•
•
United States, Japan, and European countries,
are massive net importers of raw materials.
While the world is unlikely to literally run out of
most raw materials, there are questions about
future availability in a world of increasing
competition for those resources.
As global competition for raw materials
increases, countries may have to form new
alliances and relationships.
Summary
• Appropriate technology development relative to
resource development, use, and recycling will
be essential.
• Reconsideration of domestic policies, to
•
potentially allow greater access to domestic
resources, will likely be needed.
Environmental and social concerns will increase
as raw material consumption rises.