Transcript Slide 1

Ozone: Violations, NonAttainment
& our Air Quality Future
Peter Bella
Alamo Area Council of Governments
Guadalupe County Workshop / Randolph Metrocom Chamber
October 9, 2012
Key Questions Today
1. What does the ozone violation mean?
2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its
contribution to ozone?
3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included?
4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their
ozone contribution?
5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue?
6. What is the role of what we call "transport”?
7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area
ozone?
What is ozone?
• Ozone is an odorless, colorless gas.
• Ground-level ozone can cause:
– shortness of breath
– coughing or wheezing
– headaches nausea
– throat and lung irritation
• Ground-level ozone’s effects are most profound
on children, the elderly, and those with reduced
lung capacity.
What Causes Ozone?
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) &
Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)
Note: NOx = NO + NO2 (<= criteria)
Emission Trends for VOC and NOx in
San Antonio 8-County MSA Population
San Antonio / New Braunfels MSA 1996 to 2018
Population Growth in the SA-NB MSA
5.0
Atascosa
Bandera
Bexar
Comal
Guadalupe
Kendall
Medina
Wilson
Population (1970 = 1)
4.0
3.0
Texas Water
Development
Board projects
41% growth in the
SA-NB MSA
between 20102040 from
2,142,508 to
3,029,300.
2.0
1.0
0.0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Eagle Ford Shale not evident. Courtesy Bill Barker, OEP/CoSA
Key Questions Today
1. What does the ozone violation mean?
2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its
contribution to ozone?
3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included?
4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their
ozone contribution?
5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue?
6. What is the role of what we call "transport”?
7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area
ozone?
Regulatory O3 Monitors,
AACOG / Bexar Co.:
Camp Bullis C58,
Calaveras Lake C59,
SA Northwest C23
AACOG-operated
Non-regulatory
Ozone monitors:
C500 series
CPS Energy
Owned and Operated
Ozone monitors:
C622, C678
http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/cgi-bin/compliance/monops/select_summary.pl?region13.gif
2008 Federal 8-Hour Ozone Standard
2008 8-hour average Ozone
National Ambient Air Quality Standard
• A community will meet the eight-hour standard
when the three-year average of the annual fourth
highest daily maximum eight-hour ozone
concentration measured at each monitoring site is
less than 76 parts per billion (ppb). *
* Source: TCEQ's "Compliance with Eight-Hour Ozone Standard" page:
http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/cgi-bin/compliance/monops/8hr_attainment.pl
Violation of the 2008 Standard
Violation: the three year average of ozone
levels on local monitors was too high.
On August 21, two monitors violated the 2008 ozone standard.
Fourth Highest Average
2012
Monitoring Site
2010
2011
Current
ThreeYear
Average
as of
3:12 pm CDT
10/8/2012
Camp Bullis C58
Calaveras Lake C59
San Antonio Northwest C23
78
67
72
75
71
79
87
70
81
80
69
77
The “Three-Year Average” needs to be
less than 76 parts per billion (ppb).
Data: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/cgi-bin/compliance/monops/8hr_attainment.pl
Key Questions Today
1. What does the ozone violation mean?
2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its
contribution to ozone?
3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included?
4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their
ozone contribution?
5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue?
6. What is the role of what we call "transport”?
7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area
ozone?
Requirements vs. Discretion
Requirements:
• The current 2008 ozone standard is now under review:
– May be revised in 2013 according to the five-year review cycle.
• IF the standard revised in 2013, and timeline did not change:
– Proposal for a revised standard would be published in 2013
– Final standard promulgated in 2014.
– Nonattainment designations promulgated in 2016 .
• Designations would be made based on 2013-2015 data.
• Next summer: possibly the 1st year in the 3-year average for
designations under a more stringent ozone standard.
• Now is a great time to initiate dedicated air quality
improvements.
Requirements vs. Discretion
EPA’s Discretion:
• It is within the EPA Administrator’s discretion under the Clean
Air Act to notify the Governor of any state that a designation
revision should be revised.
– “…on the basis of air quality data, planning and control considerations,
or any other air quality-related considerations the Administrator
deems appropriate...“
• Now is a great time to initiate dedicated air quality
improvements, especially in light of the Ozone Advance
program.
What is AIR Committee Doing?
• Ozone Advance
– EPA program to provide
assistance to areas interested
in staying in attainment
– Voluntary program for
voluntary progress
– If we are subject to a
nonattainment designation,
AND we have implemented
adequate reduction, EPA
administrator MAY allow time.
What is AIR Committee Doing?
• Ozone Advance
– Outreach to local business and industry
• TERP: Cleaner fuels for cleaner fleets
• Catalogue existing “clean” practices
– June 25, 2013: “Path Forward” letter to EPA
with list of control strategies to put in place
• Eagle Ford Shale (EFS) Emissions
Inventory for Ozone Precursors
– Develop best estimations for activities
– AACOG staff under contract with TCEQ
Strong Commitment to Success and Recognition
Strong Commitment to Success and Recognition
Photo:
Forrest
Mims
III
June 13, 2007: Hon. Jay Millikin presents recognition award
to Tom Spaits of Capitol Cement for SNCR implementation
Key Questions Today
1. What does the ozone violation mean?
2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its
contribution to ozone?
3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included?
4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their
ozone contribution?
5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue?
6. What is the role of what we call "transport”?
7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area
ozone?
EPA Default Boundary: MSA*
Metropolitan
Statistical
Area
Atascosa,
Bandera, Bexar,
Comal,
Guadalupe,
Kendall, Medina,
and Wilson Counties
See page 3, “Area Designations for the 2008 Revised Ozone National Ambient Air
Quality Standards”:
http://www.epa.gov/groundlevelozone/designations/2008standards/documents/
2008-12/Area_Designations_for_the_2008_Revised_Ozone_NAAQS.pdf
Key Questions Today
1. What does the ozone violation mean?
2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its
contribution to ozone?
3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included?
4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their
ozone contribution?
5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue?
6. What is the role of what we call "transport”?
7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area
ozone?
Surrounding Counties
• Alamo Rural Transit – Mass Transit
– Connect work-to-home with mass transit
• TERP: Cleaner fuels for cleaner fleets
• Energy Efficiency / Renewable Energy
– Solar, wind, building code improvements
– Building retrofits / AACOG Weatherization
– SPEER / Energy Systems Lab + Consortium
– Learn from CPS Energy
• Avoid land clearing and agriculture
burns on AQHA days
Key Questions Today
1. What does the ozone violation mean?
2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its
contribution to ozone?
3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included?
4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their
ozone contribution?
5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue?
6. What is the role of what we call "transport”?
7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area
ozone?
Key Programs under NA
• Nonattainment New Source Review:
– Seeks industry and business emission reductions
– Allowances are reduced under emissions permits
• Transportation Conformity
– Requires that engineers demonstrate that “added
capacity” roadway projects will not add pollution
– One year from the date of a non-attainment
designation, federally funded highway and transit
projects require demonstration: no increase
in emissions due to build-out
RACT/BACT/LAER
Under EPA's "New Source Review" (NSR) program, if a company is
planning to build a new plant or modify an existing plant such that air
pollution emissions will increase by a large amount,
then the company must obtain an NSR permit.
• BACT, or Best Available Control Technology, is required on
major new or modified sources in clean areas (i.e.,
attainment areas).
• RACT, or Reasonably Available Control Technology, is
required on existing sources in areas that are not meeting
national ambient air quality standards (i.e., nonattainment areas).
• LAER, or Lowest Achievable Emission Rate, is required on
major new or modified sources in non-attainment areas.
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/catc/rblc/htm/welcome_eg.html
EXTREME
SEVERE
SERIOUS
MODERATE
MARGINAL
(20 Years)
(15-17 Years)
(9 Years)
(6 Years)
(3 Years)
Enhanced
Monitoring and I/M
Basic I/M
Modeled Attainment
Demonstration
Clean Fuels and
Controls for Boilers
Traffic Controls
During Congestion
VMT Growth Offset
Major Source Fees
for Failure to Attain
(185 Fees)
3% per Year VOC
Reductions After 6
Years
RFP Milestone
Contingency
Measures
Clean Fuels Program
VMT Demonstration
Stage II Gasoline
Vapor Recovery
RACT & RACM
Emissions Reductions
Attainment
Demonstration
Contingency
Measures
Emissions Inventory
Emissions
Statements
Nonattainment NSR
Program & Emissions
Offsets
RACT Fixups
RFP - 15% VOC
Reductions within 6
years
I/M Corrections
10
25
50
100
100
1.5 : 1
1.3 : 1
1.2 : 1
1.15 : 1
1.1 : 1
Courtesy TCEQ
Key Questions Today
1. What does the ozone violation mean?
2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its
contribution to ozone?
3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included?
4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their
ozone contribution?
5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue?
6. What is the role of what we call "transport”?
7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area
ozone?
Rural
Background
Ozone Level
Relatively low
Ozone Increases
Downwind from
Major Combustion
Sources
Ozone Increases
Further Due to
Numerous Urban
Sources
High Ozone
Extends
Downward from
Urban Areas
Wind Direction
Rural
Sources
Cars
Trucks
Locomotives
Small Engines
Vegetation
Major
Combustion
Sources
Power
Generation
Cement Industry
Manufacturing
Courtesy TCEQ
Urban
Sources
Cars Trucks
Buses Airports
Industries Construction
Lawn & Garden Equipment
Vegetation
Transport
Image courtesy of the Capital
Area Council of Governments
Key Questions Today
1. What does the ozone violation mean?
2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its
contribution to ozone?
3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included?
4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their
ozone contribution?
5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue?
6. What is the role of what we call "transport”?
7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area
ozone?
Eagle Ford Shale Play
Superlative Comments
-“Eagle Ford shale will be another Spindletop for Texas.”
-“…and could be the most promising oil play in the nation.”
-“…perhaps largest economic boom in our state’s history.” – Texas RR Commission
-“… one of the nation’s biggest oil and gas fields over next 20 – 30 years.”
-“The 400 mile stretch in south Texas is a major job factory.”
Horizontal Drilling / Hydraulic Fracturing
"Ozone Impacts of Natural Gas
Development in the Haynesville Shale,"
Environ. Sci. Technol., November 18, 2010
ENVIRON, et. al.
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es1021137
Figure from energyindustryphotos.com
Maximum Regional 8-Hour Ozone Impacts in 2012
Maximum impacts extend outside Northeast Texas into
other regions of Texas
Wind directions
relative to Bexar
County on high
ozone days > 70
ppb, 2005-2011
48-hour back trajectories within
250 miles of CAMS 58
Gillespie
Travis
Blanco
Hays
Kerr
Bastrop
Kendall
Bandera
2%
8%
26%
Caldwell
Comal
Guadalupe
24%
Gonzales
1%
Bexar
Medina
Wilson
2%
25%
Dewitt
13%
Frio
Atascosa
Karnes
Goliad
La Salle
Live Oak
Bee
Wind data analysis: AACOG
McMullen
Well location data, Legend:
http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/eagleford/images/EagleFordShalePlay120211-large.jpg
Eagle Ford Shale Estimates
Draft NOx Emissions in tons per day from 24-county Eagle Ford shale play
EFS Emissions Source
2011 * 2011 estimations for Production
not included.
Exploration and Pad Construction
0.6
Production may create up to 25
Drilling
23.9 additional tons of NOx/day in 2011.
2012 emissions will be higher.
Hydraulic Fracturing
12.3 For example, midstream sources
are estimated at 39.3 tons of VOC
Midstream
8.8
and 21.0 tons of NOx in 2012.
Total* Estimated Emissions 45.6
NOx Emissions in tons per day from Point Sources, 8-County SA-NB MSA
Type of Industry
2008 2013 2018
Electricity Generation
46.5 42.9 42.9
Cement Industry
20.9 25 25
Petroleum Industry
5.7 5.7 5.7
Manufacturing
1.1 1.1 1.4
Military Bases
0.9 0.9 0.9
Other Sources
0.6 0.6 0.6
Total
75.9 76.3 76.6
C23 Back Trajectories
on Days with 8-Hour
Ozone > 75 ppb and
the Location of Eagle
Ford, 2008-2011
NOAA, Feb. 26, 2010.
“Realtime Environmental
Applications and Display
sYstem (READY)”.
Available online:
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html.
Accessed 01/12/12.
Questions / Comments
Contact Information:
Peter Bella
Director Natural Resources, AACOG
[email protected]
(210) 362-5249
The Alamo Area
Council of
Governments
•
AACOG provides direct
services & planning
supporting communities and
local governments in a 12
county area of south central
Texas
 Services to local governments
& citizens (CJ, ART, Aging,
etc.)
 Planning forum for multijurisdictional issues (AQ, Eco
Dev., Public Safety, etc.)
http://www.aacog.com/
Anthropogenic NOX Emissions by Source Category,
San Antonio / New Braunfels MSA, 1996 to 2018 (tons/day)
NOX Point Source: 2013
Type of Industry
Tons/day
Percentage
Electricity Generation
42.9
56.2%
Cement Industry
25.0
32.8%
Petroleum Industry*
5.7
7.5%
Manufacturing
1.1
1.4%
Military Bases
0.9
1.2%
Other Sources
0.6
0.8%
Total
76.3
100.0%
* Does not include estimates from Eagle Ford development
NOX Point Source:
2013
Background
• AACOG region: Full compliance with CAA (‘70s)
• Significant actions taken in the AACOG region
–
–
–
–
Early Action Compact + Cement ind. & Power generation
Air Improvement Resources
CoSA’s Mission Verde + CPS Energy’s STEP
Clean Cities (DOE) + Commute Solutions (TxDOT)
• Now More Than Ever
– Eagle Ford shale (EFS) emissions are not now understood
– 2010 & 2011 Design Values: “On The Cusp” pre-EFS
– Growth > +885,000 in MSA from 2010-2040* pre-EFS
• Doing Nothing ≠ Maintaining Air Quality
* Texas Water Development Board
Smart Ideas for the Future
• Greater Mobility – Mass Transit
– Lone Star Rail
– Transit Oriented Development
• Greater Urban Densification
– Decade of Downtown / Walkable Communities
• Energy Efficiency / Renewable Energy
– Solar, wind, building code improvements
– Building retrofits
• Better Emissions Inventories
Ozone Trends, San Antonio Region, 1980-2011
95
2008 8-Hour Ozone Standard Set
C07
90
C58
C23
80
75
75 ppb: Upper limit allowed
2008 8-Hour Ozone Standard
C59
70
65
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Design Value (ppb)
85
Year
Northwest C23
North C07
Camp Bullis C58
Calaveras C59
8-Hr O3 Exceedance
Ozone Trends, San Antonio Region, 1980-2011
95
C07
90
2004 was the first year that the 8-hour average
ozone standard was active and enforced.
The standard was 85 ppb when it went into effect.
C58
C23
80
75
75 ppb: Upper limit allowed
2008 8-Hour Ozone Standard
C59
70
65
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Design Value (ppb)
85
Year
Northwest C23
North C07
Camp Bullis C58
Calaveras C59
8-Hr O3 Exceedance
Types of Strategies: LOCAL
• Industrial Controls
• Energy Efficiency Projects
• Mobile Source Controls
–
–
–
–
Fleet controls
Idling Reduction Programs
Diesel retrofits
Commute Solutions
• Outreach
– Ozone Awareness Programs
Guy Donaldson, Chief, Air Planning Section, EPA Region 6, “State
Implementation Plans,” http://blueskyways.org/meetings/webinar/june2.html
Air Quality Planning Flow Chart
Gather Air Quality
Data
(Ozone Monitoring)
And Track A.Q. Plan
Progress
Is Air Clean?
YES
Attainment &
Maintenance
NO
Estimate Current
Emissions
(Build Emissions
Inventory)
Project Future
Emissions
Develop Base
Case Model
NO
Develop
Emission
Control
Measures
Is
Control
Strategy
Adequat
e?
Model Impact of
Controls on Air
Quality
YES
Develop Rules
to Implement
Controls
Implement
Rules and
Program
Enforce Rules
and Program