Transcript Document

GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
SOUTHERN REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
ATLANTA, GEORGIA
SEPTEMBER 25-27, 2000
DAVID KENYON
DEPT. OF AGRICULTURAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS
VIRGINIA TECH
BLACKSBURG, VIRGINIA
PHONE: 540-231-6847
EMAIL: [email protected]
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
CORN BALANCE SHEET
ITEM
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
PLANTED
71.2
79.5
79.5
80.2
77.4
HARVESTED
65.0
73.1
72.7
72.6
70.5
YIELD
113.5
127.1
126.7
134.4
133.8
PRODUCTION
7,374
9,293
9,207
9,761
9,437
BEGIN STOCKS
1,558
426
883
1,308
1,787
SUPPLY
8,948
9,733
10,099
11,085
11,239
FEED
4,682
5,362
5,505
5,472
5,625
FSI
1,612
1,691
1,782
1,846
1,920
EXPORTS
2,228
1,795
1,504
1,981
1,925
USE
8,522
8,849
8,791
9,298
9,470
426
884
1,308
1,775
1,769
$3.24
$2.70
$2.43
$1.94
$1.80
END STOCKS
PRICE
WASDE, 9/12/00, <http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/usda.html>
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
CORN SUPPLY AND DEMAND
99-00
SEPT
77.4
70.5
133.8
9,437
1,787
15
11,239
MAR
77.9
71.2
131.6
9,370
1,739
15
11,124
MAY
77.9
71.1
137.0
9,740
1,784
10
11,534
FEED
FSI
EXPORT
DEMAND
5,625
1,920
1,925
9,470
5,650
1,940
1,950
9,540
5,675
1,975
1,900
9,550
5,700
1,975
1,975
9,650
END STOCK
AVE PRICE
1,769
1.80
1,584
2.20
1,984
1.80
1,859
1.85
ITEM
PLANT
HARVEST
YIELD
PRODN
BEG STOCKS
IMPORT
SUPPLY
00-01
JUN
JUL
77.9
79.6
71.1
73.1
137.0
137.0
9,740
10,013
1,759
1,819
10
10
11,509
11,842
WASDE, 9/12/00, <http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/usda.html>
AUG
79.6
73.1
141.9
10,369
1,794
10
12,174
SEPT
79.6
73.1
141.8
10,362
1,769
10
12,142
5,650
1,960
2.050
9,660
5,700
1,960
2,125
9,785
5,750
1,975
2,175
9,900
2,182
1.70
2,389
1.65
2,242
1.70
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
SOUTHERN REGION CORN PRODUCTION
STATE
1999
2000
1,000 Bushels
VA
21,840
40,500
KY
123,900
166,370
TN
58,140
63,720
NC
51,200
72,600
SC
19,250
19,600
GA
30,900
34,000
AL
20,600
11,200
MS
36,270
39,140
LA
39,930
36,720
AR
13,000
22,200
TOTAL
415,030
506,050
Crop Production, 9/12/2000.
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
CORN STOCKS AND PRICE
3.50
YEAR
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
U.S. Season Average Cash Price ($/bu)
Price = 7.71-0.748 * Ln (Ending Stocks)
3.25
95/96
R2=0.82
3.00
2.75
96/97
97/98
2.50
93/94
89/90
PRICE
2.36
2.28
2.37
2.07
2.50
2.26
3.24
2.71
2.43
1.94
1.80
90/91
91/92
2.25
STOCKS
1344
1520
1100
2114
851
1558
426
883
1308
1787
1769
94/95
92/93
2.00
98/99
1.75
1.50
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
U.S. Ending Stocks (mil bu)
1750
2000
2250
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
CORN COMBINED DEC 1999 CHART
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
CORN DECEMBER 2000 CHART
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA CORN PRICE CHANGE
(YEARS WHEN HARVEST PRICE < 247 CENTS)*
YEAR
OCTOBER
WEEK 3
MARCH
WEEK 32
CHANGE
Cents per bushel
82/83
216
315
99
85/86
228
247
19
86/87
179
190
11
87/88
173
223
50
91/92
228
280
52
92/93
218
241
23
94/95
219
268
49
98/99
215
233
18
99/00
210
233
23
Average
210
248
38
*1980-1999 average week 3 price is 247 cents.
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
CORN STORAGE
SEPT. 19, 2000
MARCH 01 FUTURES
$/BU
2.00
SOUTHEAST CASH
1.67
BEGIN MARCH BASIS (-25 TO 7)
-0.33
END MARCH BASIS (JAN: 4 TO 44)
BASIS CHANGE
0.22
0.55
STORAGE COSTS
-0.20
2¢ MONTH * 5 MONTHS = 0.12
$2.00 * .10 * 5/12
RETURNS TO STORAGE
= 0.08
0.35
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
SELL CASH, BUY MAY CALL OPTION
SEPTEMBER 15
YEAR
MARCH 15
MAY FUTURES
STRIKE
PRICE
CALL PREM
CALL PREM
OPTION RETURN
1985
235
240
8.00
1.25
- 6.75
1986
182
180
11.25
0.25
- 11.00
1987
194
190
14.50
14.75
+ 0.25
1988
308
310
22.00
0.75
- 21.25
1989
242
240
15.00
11.00
- 4.00
1990
250
250
14.00
11.00
- 3.00
1991
268
270
14.50
5.75
- 8.75
1992
235
240
9.75
0.38
- 9.37
1993
252
250
12.50
30.00
+ 17.50
1994
241
240
11.25
8.75
- 2.50
1995
325
330
17.20
60.00
+ 42.80
1996
329
330
18.40
0.00
- 18.40
1997
277
280
15.5
0.50
- 15.00
1998
230
230
15.75
2.25
- 13.50
1999
230
230
14.75
10.50
- 4.25
Ave
N/A
N/A
14.29
10.48
- 3.81
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
CORN SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ITEM
00-01*
SEPT
01-02**
SEPT 00
PLANT
HARVEST
YIELD
PRODN
BEG STOCKS
79.6
73.1
141.8
10,362
1,769
78.1
71.1
134.01
9,527
2,242
IMPORT
SUPPLY
10
12,142
10
11,779
FEED
FSI
EXPORT
DEMAND
5,750
1,975
2,175
9,900
5,865
2,035
2,100
10,000
END STOCK
AVE PRICE
2,242
1.70
1,779
2.15
*WASDE, SEPT. 2000. ** SPARKS COMMODITIES, 9/15/00
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
CORN DECEMBER 2001 CHART
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
WHEAT BALANCE SHEET
ITEM
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
PLANTED
69.1
75.6
70.4
65.8
62.8
HARVESTED
60.9
62.9
62.8
59.0
53.9
YIELD
35.8
36.3
39.5
43.2
42.7
PRODUCTION
2,183
2,285
2,481
2,547
2,302
507
376
444
722
946
2,757
2,753
3,020
3,373
3,343
FOOD
883
892
914
908
925
FEED
153
314
251
396
286
SEED
104
103
92
81
92
EXPORTS
1,241
1,001
1,040
1,042
1,090
DEMAND
2,381
2,310
2,298
2,427
2,393
376
444
722
946
950
$4.55
$4.30
$3.38
$2.65
$2.48
BEGIN STOCKS
SUPPLY
END STOCKS
PRICE
WASDE, 9/12/00, <http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/usda.html>
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
WHEAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ITEM
PLANT
HARVEST
YIELD
PRODN
BEG STOCKS
99-00
SEPT
62.8
53.9
42.7
2,302
946
MAR
61.7
53.5
39.6
2,119
997
IMPORT
SUPPLY
90
3,338
FOOD
SEED
FEED
EXPORT
DEMAND
END STOCK
AVE PRICE
MAY
61.7
52.5
42.6
2,239
938
00-01
JUN
JUL
61.7
62.9
52.5
54.4
42.1
41.2
2,212
2,243
917
950
AUG
62.9
54.4
41.6
2,263
950
SEP
62.9
54.4
42.3
2,302
950
100
3,216
95
3,272
100
3,229
100
3,293
100
3,313
100
3,352
910
90
325
1,075
2,400
915
90
395
1,050
2,450
925
85
300
1,125
2,435
935
85
275
1,125
2,420
935
86
225
1,100
2,346
940
86
225
1,100
2,351
940
86
225
1,125
2,376
938
2.50
766
2.94
837
2.70
809
2.65
947
2.50
962
2.50
976
2.50
WASDE, 9/12/00, <http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/usda.html>
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
WHEAT STOCKS AND PRICE
U.S. Season Average Cash Price ($/bu)
5.00
Price = 15.89 – 1.95 * Ln (Ending Stocks)
4.75
95-96
YEAR
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
R2 = 0.82
4.50
4.25
96/97
4.00
3.75
89/90
94/95
3.50
STOCKS
536
869
476
531
568
507
376
444
722
946
950
PRICE
3.72
2.61
3.24
3.24
3.17
3.45
4.55
4.30
3.38
2.65
2.48
97/98
3.25
93/94
92/93
3.00
91/92
2.75
98/99
2.50
90/91
2.25
2.00
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
U.S. Ending Stocks (mil bu)
800
850
900
950
1000
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
WHEAT STORAGE
JUNE 12, 2000
DEC. WHEAT FUTURES
$/BU
2.94
WAKEFIELD CASH
2.11
BEGIN JUNE BASIS
-0.83
END DEC. BASIS (-20 TO –50)
BASIS CHANGE
-0.34
0.49
STORAGE COSTS
0.23
2¢ MONTH * 6 MONTHS = 0.12
$2.11 * .10 * 6/12
RETURNS TO STORAGE
= 0.11
0.26
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
SELL CASH AND BUY DEC. CALL OPTION
JUNE 12, 2000
WAKEFIELD CASH
$/BU
2.11
DEC. FUTURES
2.94
290 DEC. CALL OPTION
0.21
300 DEC. CALL OPTION
0.17
SEPTEMBER 19, 2000
WAKEFIELD CASH
1.82
DEC. FUTURES
2.49
290 DEC. CALL OPTION
0.02
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
WHEAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ITEM
00-01*
SEPT
01-02**
SEPT 00
PLANT
HARVEST
YIELD
PRODN
BEG STOCKS
IMPORT
SUPPLY
62.9
54.4
42.3
2,302
950
100
3,352
61.4
53.6
42.0
2,251
976
100
3,327
FOOD
SEED
FEED
EXPORT
DEMAND
940
86
225
1,125
2,376
975
85
225
1,100
2,385
976
2.50
942
2.50
END STOCK
AVE PRICE
*WASDE, SEPT. 2000. ** SPARKS COMMODITIES, 9/15/00
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
WHEAT JULY 2000 CHART
GRAIN PRICE UPDATE
WHEAT JULY 2001 CHART