Transcript Slide 1

Employment, Income and
Population Change in Curry County
May 6, 2009
Mallory Rahe
Extension Community Economist
Oregon State University
Positioned on the border of California, Curry is a
relatively small county compared to its regional
neighbors with a population of 21,523 and a total
employment of 11,620. Total employment has been
growing on average 2.3 percent a year since 1969,
faster than the national average. The manufacturing
industry’s dominance and decline has been balanced by
growth in services and retail trade and an expansion of
a tourism industry. Modest population growth has
been driven by in migration. Although the county has
low average wages, a majority of the county’s total
personal income comes dividends, interest, rent and
transfer payments which supports higher per capita
incomes than counties with a similar economic base.
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Understanding Employment:
Compared to its neighbors Curry Co. has a
smaller employment base
Curry county
employment
stood at
11,672 in
2005 and
contracted
slightly to
11,620 jobs in
2007
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Even as growth has recently
slowed, the county continues
adding jobs faster than the national
average. The 1970’s brought the
largest percentage increases in
total employment.
The county has seen less volatility
in annual employment change since
1995. The county enjoyed annual
increases in total jobs from 19862006.
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Understanding employment change during different business cycles: the following five slides
use shift-share analysis to look at Curry County’s employment by industry
1991-1999
1978-1991
1971-1978
35.5%
Growth
Avg 5.1%
annual
20.8%
Growth
Avg 1.6% annual
17.2%
Growth
Avg 1.9%
annual
20052001- 2007
2005
11.0%
Growth
Avg
2.2%
annual
0.4%
decline
Business cycles were chosen as the time periods between peak employment years in the county.
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Rapid growth from
1971-1978
Local industries added more
jobs than the national average
employment growth,
manufacturing and
construction were two
exceptions
Employment growth in Services
and Retail trade accounted for 45
percent (842 of the 1,891) jobs that
were added. The two industries
grew 3 times and 2 times as fast as
the national average respectively
– Government jobs- federal civilian positions and state and local government -added another
446 jobs to the county
– Curry farm jobs were expanding as the national farm sector was employing fewer people.
Together with strong employment growth in the Agricultural services, forestry, fishing, and
related activities added an additional 396 jobs.
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Growth slows in Curry County
from 1978-1991
Local growth is driven solely by
national growth, Curry had an
unfavorable mix of employmentmore jobs were held in industries
that were declining nationally.
Growth was further slowed as
local industries added fewer jobs
than the national averages
– The county loses 585 manufacturing jobs, nationally the manufacturing sector is employing
fewer people during this period, but employment falls faster locally
– The service industry adds 994 jobs and increases its share of employment in the county from
14.7% to 23.6%
– Construction jobs in the county nearly double, locally the industry grows over 4 times faster
than the national average and now represents 7.2% of local employment
– Farm employment also declines in the county as 95 farm jobs are lost during this period
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1991-1999 period of
moderate growth
Local growth is spurred by
strong national growth, Curry
had a favorable mix of
employment- more jobs were
held in growing industries
than declining industries.
Growth was slowed as local
industries added fewer jobs
than the national averages
– Services, Retail Trade, and Agriculture service, Forestry and Fishing industries
added the most jobs in the county
– Retail trade, Services, Construction add fewer jobs at a slower pace than the
national average in these industries
– Manufacturing, Transportation and Public Utilities lose jobs locally while these
industries added employment nationally
– The county loses 117 Federal Civilian jobs
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2001-2005 produce
2.2 % annual
employment growth
rates
Curry retains a favorable
mix: Larger shares of
employment are found
in industries that are
growing nationally
½ of the jobs that were
added during this period
as Curry’s industries
grew faster than their
respective national
averages
– Construction industry grows three times as fast as national average, this industry added 306
jobs, the most of any reported industry
– Accommodation and Food Services added 175 jobs and grew at a rate almost twice the
national average in this industry
– Real Estate, Rental and Leasing industry grew slower than the national average but still
added an additional 118 jobs locally
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2005-2007 slight
decline in total
employment
Manufacturing and
Other services add jobs
while most industries
reduce employment
The three industries
(construction; real
estate, rentals, and
leasing; accommodation
and food services) that
added the most jobs
from 2001-2005 slowed
during the next two
years and did not meet
the national average
growth rates
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The job ratio has been increasing, as Curry county
grows job creation has outpaced population increases
Historically Curry has
always had a lower job
ration than the state or
nation. Part of this
difference reflects the
county’s older
population.
The recent rise in the
employment to
population ratio
represents growth in
both full and part-time
jobs alike.
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Understanding Population: Curry county in a
period of stable population growth, slower than
the state average
Curry county’s
population has at
times grown faster
than the state
average.
Since 1995 the
county has been in a
period of slower
population growth.
Population peaked
at 22,082 persons in
2005.
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Curry County had a 1.8 % population growth due to people moving
into the county. Like its immediate neighbor’s the county’s changing
age structure resulted in more deaths than births.
Map prepared by Mallory Rahe, Oregon State University Extension, data source US Census July 1, 2008 population estimates
Oregon State averaged 10.8% growth from 2000 to 2008
Understanding Income: Curry County has increased
total personal income and per capita income over time,
non-net earnings are important income sources
Curry county’s total personal
income base was $678,933
million (current dollars) in 2007.
The county’s per capita income
was $31,214 (current dollars) or
81 percent of the national
average and 89 percent of the
state average. The county has a
low average wage, dividends,
interest, rent and transfer
payments support 32 % and 28%
of total personal income.
Real Total Personal Income in the county has increased 15.5 percent from 2000-2007. These increases
have been similar to the statewide increases. Curry county’s percent of the statewide total personal
income is 0.52% a number almost identical to the county’s share of the statewide total in 1969.
Real Per Capita Income has increased 12.1% from 2000-2007, this growth has allowed Curry county to
come 4.6 percentage points closer to reaching the statewide average.
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Proprietors earn 15% of all county earnings. Private
industry contributes 78% of all county earnings
Total Earnings (in thousands)
Proprietors' income
Farm proprietors' income
Farm earnings
Private earnings
Government and government enterprises
Federal, civilian
Military
State government
Local government
2001
2004
2007
$ 229,192
$ 270,028 $ 315,338
15%
14%
15%
-8%
3%
7%
0%
2%
2%
77%
77%
78%
23%
21%
20%
14%
12%
10%
5%
8%
8%
10%
12%
8%
70%
68%
73%
Note: Proprietor’s income reflects business profit and includes adjustments for the depreciation of inventory valuation, capital
consumption, and the wage and salary of the proprietor are also deducted. Farm proprietors’ income can be very volatile and
showing negative income is not uncommon.
Private earnings and farm earnings also include the respective amounts of proprietor earnings in each category.
Source: Regional Economic Information System, BEA, Table CA05N, Data for 2001 and 2005 use 2002 NAICS codes, 2007 data uses
the 2007 updated NAICS.
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Contributions to private earnings by industry show the
importance of manufacturing, retail trade, and
construction
Manufacturing
contributes 15% to
total private earnings
despite only
accounting for 7% of
the county’s total
employment.
In 2001, wood product
manufacturing
represented 13% of all
private earnings in the
county, data
suppression prevents
understanding how
this number has
changed
Private earnings (in thousands)
Forestry, fishing, related activities, and other
Forestry and logging
Fishing, hunting, and trapping
Agriculture and forestry support activities
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods manufacturing
Wood product manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation and food services
Other services, except public administration
2001
2004
2007
$177,136
$209,058
$246,149
5%
3%
3%
4%
3%
5%
11%
17%
17%
13%
1%
15%
0%
2%
2%
4%
4%
0%
8%
1%
9%
4%
12%
16%
11%
15%
15%
16%
3%
1%
3%
3%
4%
14%
2%
1%
4%
3%
6%
1%
9%
5%
1%
8%
5%
Note: Blanks reveal data suppression by Bureau of Economic Analysis to protect firm confidentiality
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Source: Regional Economic Information System, BEA, Table CA05N. Data for 2001 and 2005 use 2002 NAICS codes,
2007 data uses the 2007 updated NAICS.
Additional Data Slides
The following slides include additional data
drawn from http://www.pnreap.org/Oregon/
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bureau of Economic Analysis
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( in thousand dollars)
Total Earnings
Proprietors' income
Farm proprietors' income
Farm earnings
Private earnings
Government and government enterprises
Federal, civilian
Military
State government
Local government
2001
$ 229,192
$ 34,808
48%
$
157
$ 177,136
2005
$ 270,028
$ 38,129
53%
$ 4,101
$ 209,058
2007 % Change
$ 315,338
38%
$ 48,247
39%
57%
233%
$ 7,051
4391%
$ 246,149
39%
$ 51,899 $ 56,869 $ 62,138
14%
12%
10%
5%
8%
8%
10%
12%
8%
70%
68%
73%
20%
-13%
88%
-5%
25%
Note: Proprietor’s income reflects business profit and includes adjustments for the depreciation of inventory valuation, capital
consumption, and the wage and salary of the proprietor are also deducted. Farm proprietors’ income can be very volatile and
showing negative income is not uncommon.
Private earnings and farm earnings also include the respective amounts of proprietor earnings in each category.
Source: Regional Economic Information System, BEA, Table CA05N, Data for 2001 and 2005 use 2002 NAICS codes, 2007 data uses
the 2007 updated NAICS.
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