Transcript Document

Snap Crackle and Ultimately Pop:
The Future for Serials?
Colin Steele
Cereals or Serials?
 Originally thought of just using the wordplay
above the title, but then …
 The Kellogg cornflake characters were
created in 1932
 The same year when the first meeting of ARL
(December 1932) complained about serial
price increases !
1933 ARL
 According to David Stam in his 1992 article
“Plus Ca Change”, ARL noted that Rochester
decided to cancel Springer titles in early 1933
 Later in the year, ARL noted a Medical Library
Association resolution “that MLA recommends
cancellation of serial titles, except for one
library, in each of six to ten zones throughout
America”
Kellogg 1933
 The famous Kellogg characters first appeared
in 1933: Snap, Crackle and Pop
 Snap is the oldest brother and could be
compared to Reed Elsevier? – he likes to lead
 Crackle is the middle child, is good hearted
and likes playing practical jokes – is this the
Public Library of Science?
 Pop is the youngest and has a likeable
personality … but no one comes to mind?
Are Serials Healthy for you?
 In July 2004 the UK Advertising watchdog
upheld a complaint that Kellogg’s Frosties
were unhealthy – “the ASA considered that
Frosties had a high sugar content”
 Depending on one’s viewpoint, serials can be
considered unhealthy – they slow library
“financial digestion”
Conclusion for Cereals/Serials
 What we all want is a “well balanced diet” from
serials - “made with research-proven
ingredients” (Uncle Toby's)
 One has choices with cereals between various
brands but it is not easy to substitute one serial
exactly for another
 Reward systems need to change however so
publishers can be “flushed” from success in a
regular serial diet
 There are no easy serial solutions!
2000 CSIRO: Predictions for 2005
 Future Directions 2000 Seminar: Paul Reekie,
http://archive.alia.org.au/sigs/assig/serials.2005/r
eekie.html
 Serials will be online;
 Libraries will aim to be 100% online;
 Individual paper will rule;
 Current players will be stretched;
 Customer expectations will grow;
CSIRO 2
 New options will challenge traditional;
aggregation of online information;
 Improved knowledge management;
 Small publishers unable to adapt;
 Traditional subscriptions disappear;
 Publisher takes on library roles (or will it be
reverse)
Issues for Serials
 Constant change for libraries, publishers and
serial agents but not for most academics, the key
yet most neglected players in publishing
debates- how many here?
 Development of Institutional Repositories
 Electronic replaces print in most academic
institutions-Crispin Davis Bookseller 25/2/2005
 Optimising content – federated search strategies
in one stop shop environments
Serials 2
 “Statistics to a librarian are like a lamp post to
a drunk – they are used more for support than
for illumination” (NFAIS – Online Usage
Statistics Forum, October 2004)
 Need integrated statistical reporting and more
research on staff and student useage patterns
 Open Access developments and “confusion”
 Role and function of consortia and the rise
and fall of The Big Deal?
Cutting The Mustard?
 Caroline Michel (Harper Press) March 3, 2005:
“Guardian World Book Day Forum”
 “Mr Colman said that he made his fortune not
from the mustard people ate, but from the
mustard that remained on the side of the
plate when the meal was finished”
 Comparison with most serial articles little
read and little used-academic dross?
Academic dross
 30% of titles from Big Deal publishers
account for 80% of articles downloaded
(Gatten and Sanville, D-Lib magazine) :
 “Those titles deemed to be of low value might
then be discontinued to save the associated
costs”
 not discontinued but this material can be OA
in widest context,
 while the top TA (Toll Access) high prestige
journals will set the market top prices
The Front End of Serials
 The front-end of Serials is their acquisition costs
 Journal prices continue to rise, “average price
increases by publisher ranging from 27% to 94%
2000-2004”, (LISU Study)
 Many major firms, eg Reed Elsevier, Thomson,
and Wiley, reporting high growth margins in
2004. What crisis in serial publishing?!
 Shift away from communication of research to
publication for reputation / RAE enhancement
Sorting out the Back-end of Serials
The “Back End” of Serials
 “E-journals are a pain in the ass” (Marilyn
Cramer)
 UWA Library went from 9,357 e serials in 2003 to
37,339 in 2003 - not untypical in universities
 Clearly why we look for “serial solutions” to
cover contracts, prices, user access , useage
statistics, cost per use, renewals, stats, etc.
 Complex patchwork of on web and off web
resources for libraries to bring together
Role and Function of the Serial
Agent
 Decline in numbers over the last decade as
margins reduce
 Impact on serial agents of direct selling
platforms by major publishers eg SAGE
 Linking of subscriptions services and online
research database business
 Only authors and users “secure in their roles”,
Ian Middleton, EBSCO
http://www.researchinformation.info/risepoct04
agents.html
I Only Wanted to be a Serials
Agent!
Serial Trends?
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Customisation-Ingenta Connect Premium
Seamless searching :
ProQuest and Serial Solutions;
SwetsWise Linker
Ingenta and Infotrieve
IOP and CrossRef’s Forward linking service
Google and CrossRef DOI
Serial Trends 2
 Companies compete in one area but collaborate in
others eg search platforms and subs services
 Continued aggregation / consolidation -Taylor and
Francis to Routledge and T and F (STM)
 Links from text to e- research databasesThomson;Infotrieve Life Science Research Center
 “The notion of how many serials we have
becomes much less important than how we can
access them readily and deliver them effectively
electronically”(Duane Webster)
Too Much Information ?
 The Society for the Diffusion of Useful
Knowledge (UCL Archives) 1832 had as its
mission to “impart useful information to all
classes of the community” by acting as the
intermediary between authors and publishers –
 Ultimately did not meet its aims - the Society
was said to do no more than to “stuff our
mouths with kangaroos” – ie need information
filters
Google :An Information
Knockout?
Amazoogle - The Answer?
Shifts in Mindshare: John Regazzi
Elsevier
Top 3 Online Scientific Search Resources
Librarians VS Scientists
42%
Science Direct
2%
37%
ISI Web of Science
2%
31%
Medline
Google
Yahoo
PubMed
2%
0%
39%
0%
10%
11%
9%
Librarians
Scientists
Role and Function of
Learned Societies
 Rene Olivieri, Blackwell Publishing
“Societies should not be forgotten”
(Research Information, Jan-Feb 2005)
 Are these likely to become “yesterday’s men”
in future financial developments-Elsevier
initiatives in Australia
 Yet three quarters of the top 200 and two
thirds of the top 500 ISI ranked titles owned
by societies or non-profit organisations
The Deconstruction of Books
 E- slicing of books - rentals of texts and ecourse pack developments
 Advanced e- technologies challenge publishers
and librarians eg varied content downloads
 Rise of PODS and serial “reconstructions”
 Oblinger and CLIR studies-the library as place
 Consortial monograph offerings in serial type
searches and useages
 Impact of Google print and Amazon within a
book
Publishers Cost of Open Access
 Is this becoming a dog’s breakfast?
 Publisher prices range from $US 500 to
$3,500 ?- future sub confusions?
 Academics find it difficult to understand or
even know about the “green and gold” paths,
so how will they keep track of author fees?
 Is differential OA pricing a clever ploy by
publishers?
Open Access and Confused
Economics
 A very confused situation whether in universities
or publishers
 Most academics unaware of OA but sympathetic
in their reader mode - CIBER studies
 Academics loathe to use research grants to
support libraries or publication if they can get
extra staff with the money
 New examinations of public good input / output
mechanisms on campus needed
Campus Budget Changes?
 For example, establish the hidden costs across
the campus in terms of infrastructure and time
of the academic community in editorial board
activities, refereeing, etc for the major
international STM publishers- has this ever been
done nationally or locally?
 Sally Morris article Learned Publishing”The True
Costs of Scholarly Journal Publishing” April
2005 - summaries within serial framework
Publishing Futures
 Development of digital “layered publications”
 “Digital media titans”(Gartner) will
increasingly concentrate power at the
commercial end as
 The publishing minnows are either gobbled up
or float free unnoticed in the OA seas
 What unexpected new distribution / search
models?
To Conclude some Graphics
 Keith Courtney asked me not to be entirely
serious so herewith some illustrations of the
present rather turbulent serial seas
 In the end, its “let’s get political” (not
physical)?
Need to Cuddle up to Politicians?
Lets Get Political
 LET’S GET POLITICAL (sung to the tune of
Olivia Newton John’s Physical !)
“I’m saying all the things that I know you’ll like
Making good your open access paths
I handled you just right
I took you to an intimate repository
Then to a suggestive archive
Now there’s nothing left to talk about
Unless it’s horizontally”
Let’s Get Political 2
 “Let’s get political, political
I wanna get political, let’s get political
Let me hear your publications talk
Your publications talk, let me hear your
publications talk”
Don’t Mess Around with
Publishing Models?
“Quote from John
Profumo, 1963, UK
Secretary of State
for War, when he
had to resign
because he did
……”
Cited by Arie Jongejan when
at Elsevier (ICOLC Oct 2004)
Multinational Borg Publishers
Fighting Over The Academic Body
Guedon and Mabe Battle over
the History of Publishing
A Well Known Publishing and
Bookselling Family?
 In the next slide, these are the words:
“Wait till my father hears about this – you can’t
arrest someone for overacting” Michael Douglas
All I Did Was Try and Sell The Firm!
The Only Future for Consortia Deals?
Publishers and Open Access?
One for Public Library of Science
Open Access. A Bit Skeletal
However in Contrast to
Eating the STM Profits
But I Thought We Would Win in the
End. Stevan Harnad ?
Future of the Serial?
Serials Don’t Go Pop?
In the end :”It’s not the strongest species that
survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones
most responsive to change” Charles Darwin
(Thanks to Gerald Coppin, Nature Publishing)