Transcript Introduction to Climate Change

SAARC Training Program on Climate Change Adaptation and
Disaster Risk Reduction in South Asia
Global Climate Change
Scenario
Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Associate Professor, IWFM
Coordinator , Climate Change Study Cell
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Outline
 Introduction to Climatic System
 Green House Effect and Global Warming
 Status of Global Climate Change
 Climate Change Predictions
 Climate Change Scenarios
 Climate Change Scenarios for Bangladesh
 Overview of the Impact of Climate Change
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Climate Systems
• The complicated system consisting of various components,
including the dynamics and composition of the
atmosphere, the ocean, the ice and snow cover, the land
surface and its features, the many mutual interactions
between them, and the large variety of physical, chemical
and biological processes taking place in and among these
components.
• Climate refers to the state of the climate system as a whole,
including a statistical description of its variations.
 Atmosphere
– 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases.
– Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04%.
– Water vapor 0 to 2%
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Components of Climate System
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Green house gases
 CO2 and some other minor gases
1. Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the surface of the
earth.
2. Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to space.
 These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse
gases.
– They act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the
surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would
otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.
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Green house effect
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Human induced climate variation
 Perturbations of the atmospheric composition – the
enhanced greenhouse effect
 Effect of aerosols:
– direct effect (scattering of incoming solar radiation)
– indirect effect (affecting the radiative properties of clouds)
 Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation,
reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …)
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Sector wise Green house gas emission
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Increasing trends of CO2
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Human induced changes of green
house gases
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Global temperature and Greenhouse
gases
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Temperature variation past 1,000 years
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Increase of Temperature past 140 year
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Surface Air temperature (1960-1990)
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Ice melting
 Images gathered from the Defense Meteorological
Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea
ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right).
1979
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2003
Cracks in Ice bars
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Trends of Sea Surface temperature
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Sea Level Rise (1980-2000)
20 cm rise of Global Sea Level in last century.
Prediction of another 80 cm rise by 2100.
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Trends of Precipitations
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Climate Models to predict climate
change
 Climate models are computer-based simulations that use
mathematical formulas to re-create the chemical and
physical processes that drive Earth’s climate.
 To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate
the results.
 Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer,
radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within
each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring
points.
 Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the
interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and
ice.
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GCM typical horizontal resolution of between 250 and 600 km, 10 to 20 vertical
layers in the atmosphere and sometimes as many as 30 layers in the oceans.
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Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES)
 The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) for the Third Assessment Report
(TAR) in 2001, on future emission scenarios to be used
for driving global circulation models to develop climate
change scenarios.
 It was used to replace the IS92 scenarios used for the
IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995. The SRES
Scenarios were also used for the Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) in 2007.
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SERS Emission Scenarios
 A1 - a future world of very rapid economic growth, global
population that peaks in mid-century and declines
thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more
efficient technologies. Three sub groups: fossil intensive
(A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance
across all sources (A1B).
 A2 - A very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme
is that of strengthening regional cultural identities, with an
emphasis on family values and local traditions, high
population growth, and less concern for rapid economic
development.
 B1 - a convergent world with the same global population,
that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in
the A1 storyline.
 B2 - a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions
to economic, social and environmental sustainability.
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Impact of the Changes of Green
house gases
 Summary of changes in the global environment by the
2050s and 2080s for the four scenarios expressed as
changes from the 1961-90 average. The current (1999)
CO2 concentration is about 370ppmv. The effects of
aerosols on climate are not considered. (ppmv = parts
per million by volume)
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Temperature increase versus SRES
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Predicted changes of Temperature
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Projected changes in annual temperatures for the 2050s
BW 11
The projected change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model
is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about 1% increase per year in CO 2
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Sea Level Rise
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Climatic Condition of Bangladesh
 Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a
rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years
27
(c)
26
25
y = 0.0103x + 25.428
2
R = 0.2996
24
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2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
1973
1968
1963
1958
1953
1948
23
Change of mean temperature (0C/year)
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Predicting Rainfall
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
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Predicting Maximum Temperature
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
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Predicting Minimum Temperature
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
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Predictions over Bangladesh
http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/akmsaifulislam/climate/index.htm
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Overview of the Impacts of climate
change
 Human Health impacts
 Ecosystem Impacts
 Agriculture Impacts
 Water Resources Impacts
 Market Impacts
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Human Health impacts
 Expansion of the areas of potential transmission of
malaria and dengue fever (medium-to-high confidence);
roughly 300 million more people at risk of malaria
 Increased heat-related deaths and illness, affecting
particularly the elderly, sick, and those without access to
air conditioning
 Increased risks to human life, risk of infectious disease
epidemics and many other health risks where floods,
droughts or storms increase in frequency and/or intensity
 Decreased winter deaths in some temperate regions
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Ecosystem Impacts
 Coral death from exposure to 3-4 ºC higher seasonal maximum seasurface temperatures for 6 months or more
 Substantial reduction in glacier and ice-cap volume; tropical glaciers
particularly vulnerable to elimination
 Loss of unique vegetation systems and their endemic species (e.g.
vegetation of Cape region of South Africa and some cloud forests)
 Extensive reduction in Arctic summer sea-ice extent with benefits for
shipping but adverse effects on sea-ice dependent animals (e.g. polar
bears, seals, walrus)
 Coastal wetland loss from sea level rise (up to 10% globally for 20 cm
rise, higher percentages in some areas)
 Increased disturbances of ecosystems by fire and insect pests
 Increase net primary productivity of many mid- and high-latitude forests
 Extinction of some critically-endangered and endangered species
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Agriculture Impacts
 General decrease in cereal crop yields in mid-latitudes
 Decreased crop yields in areas of increased drought
 Food prices increase relative to projections that exclude
climate change
 Decreased cereal crop yields in most tropical and
subtropical regions
 Increased heat stress in livestock and crop damage from
heat waves
 Decreased frost damage for some crops
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Water Resources Impacts
 Decreased water quantity and quality in some areas of
increased drought
 Increased flood damage due to more intense
precipitation events
 Decreased water supply in many water stressed
countries (half-billion people in central Asia, southern
Africa, and countries surrounding the Mediterranean
affected)
 Increased water supply in some other water stressed
countries (e.g. parts of Asia)
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Market Impacts
 Net market sector losses most regions and for global
aggregate
 Increased insurance prices and reduced insurance
availability in response to increased frequency and
intensity of some extreme climate events
 Decreased energy demand for heating buildings in winter
and increased energy demand for cooling buildings in
summer
 Net market sector losses in many developing countries
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Emission of CO2 ->who is responsible?
 Per capita emissions of CO2 is less than 0.2 ton annually
in Bangladesh, compared to 1.6 tons in the developing
countries
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Thank you
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