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TRANS/NCR
Technical Session 4 –
Model Development & Calibration
4.1 Calibration of the TRANS Model for
the National Capital Region (Ottawa-Hull)
1995 Model Calibration
Mark Campbell P.Eng.
Senior Transportation Planner
Maxim Morrison Hershfield
12min
Don Stephens P. Eng.
Manager, Data Modeling and Forecasting
Region of Ottawa Carleton
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
regions, transit authorities, provincial ministries and
federal government
joint cooperation in areas of common interest
modeling
data collection
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
National Capital Region
POPULATION
1,100,000
EMPLOYMENT
540,000
RMOC
REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY
OF OTTAWA-CARLETON
MRC
CUO
MUNICIPALITÉ RÉGIONALE DE
COMTÉ COLLINES-DE-L'OUTAOUAIS
COMMUNAUTÉ URBAINE
DE L'OUTAOUAIS
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Central Area
POPULATION
60,000
EMPLOYMENT
150,000
NON AUTO MODES
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
>55%
Traffic Zones/Screenlines
ALYMER
GATINEAU
HULL
Rideau
Nort
h
CPR
KANATA
Rideau
Central
OTTAWA
Greenbelt
Russell/417
CNR East
BARRHAVEN
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
ORLEANS
Past Surveys
3,000,000
‘95 Survey
‘77 Survey
2,000,000
‘72 Survey
1,500,000
2,720,000
‘86 Survey
2,500,000
OHATS ’63
Trips
per Day
2,297,000
1,569,000
1,438,000
Population
1,000,000
871,000
Employment
500,000
Dwelling Units
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
2000
1995 NCR OD Survey
Sept to Dec’95
Telephone Survey
- 21,000 interviews/households
- 56,000 persons
- 145,000 trips
- 5 to 20 % sample
T
R
A
N
S
Walk
Cycle
Auto Driver/Passenger
Public Transit
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
TRANS MODEL
1995 CALIBRATION
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
1995 TRANS MODEL
INTERZONAL
TRIPS
TRIP
GENERATION
(PM PEAK
PERIOD)
MODAL
SPLIT
MODEL
TRIP
DISTRIBUTION
PEAK HOUR
FACTORS BY
TRIP PURPOSE
ASSIGNMENT
INTRAZONAL
TRIPS
OBSERVED
MODE SPLIT
EXTERNAL
TRIP TABLE
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
NETWORK INNOVATIONS
• Network outside Greenbelt expanded in detail
• Auto volume delay functions based on posted
speed and road capacity
• Transit volume delay functions dependant on
auto speeds along shared links
• Macros convert ultimate network to 1995 and
2021 networks
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
AUTO
VOLUME DELAY FUNCTIONS
Posted
Nominal Capacity
Speed 400
600
800
1000
800
20
22
32
42
52
30
23
33
43
53
40
24
34
44
54
25
35
45
55
50
60
26
36
46
56
70
27
37
47
57
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
convention is fd ( capacity/2 ) ( first digit of posted speed )
fd45 = 50 *60/(length*1.3 )* (1+ .6 * ((volau + volad)/ (lanes* 800))^4)
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
TRANSIT
VOLUME DELAY FUNCTIONS
•
•
•
•
•
ttf 70 = auto time on link * 1.6
(transit route shared with private vehicles)
ttf 73 = auto time on link * 2.5
ttf 71 = (length/15) * 60
ttf 72 = (length/48) * 60
ttf 74 = (length/70) * 60
( several CBD routes)
( bus only lanes with 15 kph along
the roadway)
( transitway links with average
speed of 48 kph)
( bus-only lanes along highways,
average speed 70 kph)
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
TRIP GENERATION EQUATIONS
Trip Purpose
Regression Equation
Ottawa and Hull central areas
.390 * EMP(other) Ontario
0.97
.433 * EMP(other)
0.91
.446 * EMP(other)
PRODUCTION
Work to Home
Quebec
0.94
Ottawa and Hull
central areas
.348 * POP 25-44 + .258 * POP 45-64 Ontario
0.97
.405 * POP 25-44 + .117 * POP 45-64 Quebec
0.99
PRODUCTION
.142 * OD_SCHS
0.59
ATTRACTION
.07072 * POP 15-24 + .121 * POP 10 -14
0.77
ATTRACTION
Secondary
School
to Home
R^2
.178 * POP 25-44 + .192 * POP 45-64
EMP (other): total employment minus retail employment
Pop 25-44:
population in age cohort
OD_SCHS:
secondary school enrollment
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
0.98
TRIP GENERATION EQUATIONS
CONT...
Trip Purpose
Post Sec_ Sch
to Home
Regression Equation
R^2
PRODUCTION
.117 * POST_SEC_ENROLLMENT
0.96
ATTRACTION
.074 * POP15-24 + .0059 * POP25-44
0.83
PRODUCTION
.052 * POP + .0711 * EMP + 1.947 * GLA
0.85
ATTRACTION
.115 * POP
0.96
PRODUCTION
.0542 * DWEL + .176 * EMP + .578 * GLA
0.93
ATTRACTION
.0902 * EMP + .128 * DWEL + 1.69 * GLA
0.89
PRODUCTION
.187 * DWEL
0.9
ATTRACTION
.062 * EMP + 1.06 * GLA
0.57
Other to Home
Non Home Based
Leave Home
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
TRIP GENERATION
(1995 LAND USE)
Trip Purpose
Work to Home
PM Peak
Period Trips
PM Peak
Hour Factors
PM Peak Hour
Trips
Production
Attraction
163,000
162,000
0.502
81,800
81,300
Production
Attraction
16,600
16,700
0.224
3,700
3,700
Production
Attraction
9,000
11,000
0.347
3,100
3,800
Production
Attraction
108,000
110,000
0.433
46,800
47,600
Non Home Based
Production
Attraction
108,000
111,000
0.440
47,500
48,800
Leave Home
Production
Attraction
70,000
42,000
0.400
28,000
16,800
Production
474,600
452,700
SSch to Home
Post SSch to Home
Other to Home
Total
Attraction
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
210,900
202,000
TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODEL
Work to Home
• Gravity
• 2 Dimensional
• 4 Equations- Ontario to Ontario
- Ontario to Quebec
- Quebec to Quebec
- Quebec to Ontario
Remaining Trip Purposes
Gravity Model, Same Style
as the Work to Home Model
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
MODAL SPLIT MODEL
• 2 Modes
- Auto Persons & Auto Vehicles
- Transit
• Logit Model
- Work to Home (UTA)
- School to Home (UTA)
• Diversion Curves - All Other Trips
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
HOME BASED WORK TRIP
LOGIT MODEL
Mode
Trip Cost
Auto Person
Transit
Total Travel Time
-0.008641
-0.008641
-0.0096
-0.0096
Number of Vehicles
per Household
-1.738
Province
Constant
-0.8367
0.9091
Auto cost -Consists of fuel consumption and a parking cost in cents.
Transit fare -Transit fare in cents
Veh/household -- Has three groups, 0 for no vehicle/hh, 1 for 1 vehicle/hh, 2 for more
than 1 vehicle per household.
Province -0 for Ontario and 1 for Quebec residents.
Travel Time -Time in minutes to travel from trip origin to trip destination.
Changing the variables will in turn change the
auto person modal split to...
Auto Time +10%
Auto Cost +10%
% Change in
Auto Mode
Split
Transit Time +10%
Veh/HH from 1 to 2+
Transit Fare +10%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
6%
8%
SCHOOL TO HOME
LOGIT MODEL
Mode
Auto Person
Transit
Out of Vehicle
Travel Time
Number of Vehicles
per Household
Province
Constant
-0.0926
-1.083
-0.527
2.85
Out of vehicle -- 0 for auto mode, For transit, total travel time less in vehicle travel time.
Changing
the variables will in turn change the
Veh/household -- Has three groups, 0 for no vehicle/hh, 1 for 1 vehicle/hh, 2 for more
than
1 vehicle per
household. split to...
auto
person
modal
Province -0 for Ontario and 1 for Quebec residents.
Transit Out Of Vehicle
Travel Time +10%
% Change in
Auto Mode
Split
Vehicle/HH From 1 to 2+
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
2 %
3%
Auto Person Mode Choice
Non Work Trips, UTA - (Auto Time 0-15 Min)
1.00
0.95
Auto Mode Split
0.90
Auto Mode Split = 1.052 - 0.26 * (1/Transit / Auto Time)
R^2= .91
0.85
0.80
Auto Person Trips 77,800
Transit Person trips
0.75
6,300
0.70
Observed
0.65
Linear (Observed)
0.60
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.1
Transit / Auto Time
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
3.6
Auto Person Mode Choice
Non Work Trips, UTA - (Auto Time +15 Min)
1.00
0.98
Auto Mode Split
0.96
0.94
Auto Mode Split = 1.071 - 0.249 * (1/Transit / Auto Time)
0.92
R^2= .71
0.90
Auto Person Trips 22,500
Transit Person trips
600
0.88
Observed
0.86
Linear (Observed)
0.84
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
23
2.4
2.5
2.6
Transit / Auto Time
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
2.7
AUTO OCCUPANCY EQUATIONS
Trips being Modelled
* UTA
** Outside UTA
Equation
UTA*
Work
Other
School
1.25 - .00259 * distance
1.25 + .001186 * distance
3.67 - .7481 * ln(distance)
OUTSIDE UTA**
Work
Other
School
1.071 + .00275 * distance
1.296 - .00187 * distance
3
Trips with origin and destination in urban transit area
Trips with origin and/or destination outside
the urban transit area
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
R Squared
0.251
0.127
0.84
0.55
0.18
estimated
MODAL SPLIT RESULTS
(INCLUDES EXTERNAL TRIPS)
Trip
Purpose
Work -
Total Persons Auto Person Auto Vehicle
Trips
Trips
Trips
Transit
Trips
OD Survey
Model
78,800
81,300
59,600
61,700
49,200
49,200
19,200
19,600
School - OD Survey
Model
7,390
7,430
3,730
3,580
1,710
1,640
3,670
3,850
Other -
OD Survey
Model
124,900
125,900
116,900
118,100
93,400
89,300
7,960
7,860
Total -
OD Survey
Model
223,900
227,500
193,000
196,200
155,200
150,900
30,900
31,300
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
1995 PEAK HOUR ASSIGNMENT
(Outbound - Model Vs. Observed Counts)
Rideau River
+6%
CPR
0%
Ottawa Central
+17%
+1%
Rideau Canal
Fallowfield
-1%
-7%
Eagleson
Green Creek
• Model Overestimation
• Model Underestimation
+15%
CNR West/
Acres
-4%
CNR East
-17%
Western
Parkway
-9%
Leitrim/
Ramsayville
-12%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
18,000
1995 PEAK HOUR ASSIGNMENT
(Outbound - Model Vs. Observed Counts)
+31%
Rideau River
+13%
CPR
+6%
0%
-3%
+17%
+1%
Ottawa Central
-23%
Rideau Canal
-4%
+31%
Fallowfield
Eagleson
-1%
-7%
-11%
Green Creek
CNR West/
Acres
+15%
-2%
+17%
CNR East
Western
Parkway
• Model Overestimation
• Model Underestimation
-4% • Transit
•Auto Vehicle
-17%
-9%
+5%
-40%
Leitrim/
Ramsayville
0
2000
-12%
4000
6000
8000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
18,000
Change in Demographics
1995 to 2021
Population
(5 yrs and over)
+44%
+50%
Dwelling Units
+55%
Total Employment
Gross Leasable
Area (in 100 ft2)
+40%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
1995 and 2021 Travel Demand
Total Auto Person Trips
+30%
Work
+55%
Other
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
160,000
180,000
1995 and 2021 Travel Demand
Total Auto Person Trips and Transit Trips
+30%
Work
• Transit
•Auto Persons
+55%
+120%
+55%
Other
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
160,000
180,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
QUESTIONS ?
Mark Campbell P.Eng.
Senior Transportation Planner
Maxim Morrison Hershfield
Don Stephens P. Eng.
Manager, Data Modeling and Forecasting
Region of Ottawa Carleton
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
QUESTIONS ?
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region