Transcript Introduction to Spatial Dynamical Modelling

Common-pool resources
Gilberto Câmara, Earth System Science Center, INPE
Licence: Creative Commons By Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/
Acknowledgments for using previous material
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Martin Nowak (Harvard University, USA)
Francisco C. Santos (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium)
Craig Callender (Philosophy, Univ California San Diego, USA)
Ana Aguiar (INPE, Brazil)
Tiago Carneiro (Federal University of Ouro Preto, Brazil)
Guy Brasseur (NCAR, USA)
What cooperation can achieve...
Those were the days…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HrjevD2vhk&feature=related
Collective spatial action: volunteered GI
Are Brazilians less cooperative? Less tech-savvy? Does google solve
their problems? Are they happy with their public data?
Collective spatial action: pedestrian modelling
Notting Hill Carnival (London)
Batty, “Agent-Based Pedestrian Modelling”, in: Advanced Spatial
Analysis, ESRI Press, 2003.
Collective spatial action: deforestation
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
Collective spatial action: global change
10
8.7
8
Fossil fuel
6
9.9 PgC
4
Land use change
2
1960
1970
1980
1990
1.2
2000
2010
12% of total
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience, 2009
An explicit spatial problem in global change:
land change
“Land-change science has emerged as a foundational element of global
environment change and sustainability science” (Rindfuss et al,
“Developing a science of land change”, PNAS, 2004).
source: Global Land Project Science Plan (IGBP)
Impacts of global land change
More vulnerable communities are those most at risk
We need spatially explicit models to
understand human-environment interactions
Nature: Physical equations
Describe processes
Society: Decisions on how to
Use Earth´s resources
Modelling collective spatial actions: the
complex systems approach
photo: Chico Albuquerque
1.
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Situated individuals (persons, groups, agents)
Interaction rules - communication
Decision rules - actions
Properties of space
Our spatially explicit models need good social
theories to guide them
Nature: Physical equations
Describe processes
Society: Decisions on how to
Use Earth´s resources
We need social theories to understand humanenvironment interactions
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Survey
Moran, “Environmental Social Science: Human-Environment Interactions and
Sustainability” (2010)
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Social simulation
Schelling, “Micromotives and macrobehavior” (1978).
Batty, “Cities and complexity” (2005).
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Game theory
von Neumann and Morgenstern, “Theory of games and economic behavior” (1944)
Nash, "Equilibrium points in n-person games“ (1950).
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Evolutionary dynamics
Maynard Smith, ”Evolution and the theory of games” (1982)
Axelrod, “Evolution of cooperation” (1988).
Novak, “Evolutionary dynamics: exploring the equations of life” (2005).
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Institutional analysis
Ostrom, “Governing the commons” (1990).
Common pool resources (Elinor Ostrom)
The ultimate common pool resource
Governing the commons
[Ostrom, Science, 2005]
Governing the commons:
Ostrom´s conditions
1. Clearly defined boundaries.
2. Congruence between appropriation and
provision rules and local conditions.
3. Collective-choice arrangements.
4. Monitoring and graduated sanctions.
5. Conflict-resolution mechanisms.
6. Minimal recognition of rights to organize.
7. Organized governance activities.
Ostrom on governing the commons
“The challenge is how best to limit the use of natural resources so as to
ensure their long-term economic viability.”
“Neither the state nor the market is uniformly successful in enabling
individuals to sustain long-term, productive use of natural resource
systems.”
“Optimal equilibrium with centralized control is based on assumptions
concerning accuracy of information, monitoring capabilities,
sanctioning reliability, and zero costs of administration.”
Conclusion
Spatial models of human-environment interactions can support
the study of common pool resources