Transcript ACOA: Competitor Regimes: XXXXXX

Wood Mackenzie
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Oil in Sudan and Potential Revenues to GOSS
Stewart Williams
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Presentation Overview
Upstream Licence and Oil Reserve Positions
Capital Investment and Production Outlook
Basic Structure of EPSAs in Producing Areas
Structure of Revenue Sharing and Potential Future Revenues to GOSS from Existing
Contracts
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Sudan Licensing Overview
Sudan has more licensed exploration acreage
than any other African country (more than 1.1
million km2)
16
13
20°N
20°N
14
Red Sea
15
12A
9
CHAD
•
Angola - 3,500 km2
•
Algeria – 4,500
•
Libya – 5,500
km2
•
Egypt – 4,000
km2
10
SUDAN
8
17
6
7E
km2
C
1A
Block 2A - GNPOC
5A
Block 2B - GNPOC
* Notes:
Block 3D - Petrodar
5B
Block 11 - Zaver
Block 4 - GNPOC
Block 12A - Gahtani
Block 5A - Petronas
Block 14 - PetroSA
Block 5B - Petronas/Sudapet*
Block 15 - Petrodar
Block 5B - Ascom Group* (GOSS)
Block 17 - Ansan Wikfs
Block 6 - CNPC
Block A - Zaver
Block 7E - Petrodar
Block Ba - White Nile* (GOSS)
Block 8 - Petronas
Block B - Total*
Block 9 - Zaver
Block C - High Tech Group
25°E
100
200
Block B awarded to Total
by Govt. of Sudan
B
Block 3E - Petrodar
20°E
0
3E
A
2B
1B
Block 1B - GNPOC
ETHIOPIA
3D
2A
4
Block 1A - GNPOC
Despite having a drilling density much lower
than other countries, exploration success has
been very high and now Sudan ranks as the
sixth largest producer in Africa
15°N
12B
10°N
Nigeria - 1,500 km2
ERITREA
KHARTOUM
Ba
Ba
Block Ba awarded to White Nile by
Govt. of Southern Sudan (GOSS)
Block 5B awarded to
Petronas/Sudapet by Govt. of Sudan
5°N
•
11
15°N
Other key producing countries have much
lower average block sizes:
10°N
•
There are, however, relatively few blocks
making the average block size massive at
around 54,000 km2
EGYPT
LIBYA
5°N
•
40°E
35°E
30°E
25°E
20°E
Block 5B awarded to Ascom Group
by Govt. of Southern Sudan (GOSS)
30°E
35°E
40°E
km
400
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Net Reserves and Acreage – A range of exploration players
but reserves dominated by only a few companies
Includes Total-Marathon-Kufpec/White Nile
disputed blocks, Lundin, Express, Hi Tech
Group, Cliveden, Khartoum State, Heglig,
Gahtani, Ansan Wikfs, Dinder Group, All
African Investment, Ascom
300,000
Zaver Petroleum
Net Acreage (km2)
250,000
200,000
Sudapet
150,000
Petronas
100,000
CNPC
PetroSA
50,000
ONGC
Al-Thani
Sinopec
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Net Reserves (mmbbl)
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Capital Investment
Capital Investment (US$ million)
1,600
Block 5A
1,400
Block 3/7
1,200
Block 6
1,000
Block 1/2/4
800
600
400
200
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Wood Mackenzie Estimates. Excludes E & A costs.
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Oil Producing Areas
+
Block 6 – Fula field plus 18
other fields
CNPC (95%, operator), Sudapet (5%)
Production (Al Fula Blend) is
NOT subject to revenue
sharing (production entirely
from northern areas)
Block 3/7 – Palogue plus 20 other fields
Petrodar Operated
CNPC (41%), Petronas (40%), Sinopec (6%), Al Thani (5%),
Sudapet (8%)
Production (Dar Blend) is subject to
revenue sharing (100% of production is
from southern areas)
Blocks 1/2/4 Greater Nile Oil Project
– Unity, Heglig plus 34 other fields
GNPOC Operated
Block 5A – Thar Jath plus 2 other fields
CNPC (40%), Petronas (30%), ONGC (25%),
Sudapet (5%)
WNPOC Operated
Production (Nile Blend) is subject to
revenue sharing (mixture of
production from the northern and
southern areas)
Petronas (68.88%), ONGC (24.13%), Sudapet (7%)
Production (Nile Blend) is subject to
revenue sharing (100% of production is
from southern areas)
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Production Outlook and the Sources of Production
700
Total Sudanese Output
100%
Block 4 (100% from
North)
90%
400
300
200
100
70%
60%
Volume subject to NorthSouth Revenue Sharing
Oil Production '000 b/d
500
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% From South (Excluding Block 6)
600
80%
Block 6 (100% from
North)
Block 2 (100% from
North)
Block 5A (100% from
South)
Block 3 & 7 (100% from
South)
Block 1 (100% from
South)
% Volume from South
(Excluding Block 6)
% Revenues From South
(Excluding Block 6)
Total Production Subject
to Revenue Sharing
Formula
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EPSA Production Sharing Mechanism – Existing
Developments
Cost Recovery,
to contractor
Excess
Cost Recovery
Pre-Jan 2005
Post-Jan 2005
Contractor
Costs
Contractor
Costs
(Unchanged)
Govt. Share of
excess
Govt. share
subject to
Gross Revenue
100%
Profit
Oil/Gas
Govt. Profit
Share
Contractor
Profit Share
wealth sharing
between Govt.
and GOSS
Contractor
Profit Share
(Unchanged)
Note: Contractor denotes non-Sudanese Government company e.g. CNPC, Petronas , ONGC etc
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Revenue sharing provisions between National Government
and GOSS, post-Jan 2005 (1)
Volumes
Refinery
Gross Govt.
Share
*
Price
=
Gross
Revenues
-
Costs
=
Net
Revenues
*
$/bbl
=
Refining
Revenues
-
Administration fees for
refining and exports
=
Net Refining
Revenues
* <$45/bbl =
Export
Revenues
Transportation costs
- for exports and refining
=
Net Export
Revenues
Exports
* >$45/bbl =
US$45 is the
ORSA Reference
price for 2006
and 2007
Excess
Export
Revenues
ORSA
ORSA = Oil Revenue Stabilization Account
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Revenue sharing provisions between National Government
and GOSS, post-Jan 2005 (2)
Govt.
GOSS States Costs
ORSA
Allocated to Prod. States (2%)
Refining
Revenues
Northern Area Production
Southern Area Production
Allocated to Prod. States (2%)
Export
Revenues
Northern Area Production
Southern Area Production
Excess
Export
Revenues
ORSA
Chart shows to scale the estimated revenues and
costs in 2007
Scale:
= US$500 million/SDD100 billion
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Forecast Revenue Splits for 2007
Govt.
GOSS
States
Costs
ORSA
3,500
700
Producing States' Share - Refinery
US$ million
2,500
Northern Production - Refinery
Southern Production - Refinery
600
500
Producing States' Share - Export
2,000
1,500
Northern Production - Export
Southern Production - Export
400
300
ORSA
1,000
200
500
100
0
SDD billion
3,000
0
Source: Wood Mackenzie, based on its view on production, fiscal terms, oil price and understanding of the wealth-sharing provisions
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Potential Future Revenues From Blocks 1/2/4, 3/7 and 5A
US$ million
5,000
1,200
1,000
4,000
800
3,000
600
SDD 296 billion in 2007
2,000
400
1,000
0
2005
SDD billion
ORSA
Costs
Government of Sudan
Producing States' Share
GOSS
6,000
200
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
2015
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Overall ‘Split of the Barrel’ from Blocks 1/2/4, 3/7 and 5A
2005-2015 Average Split of the barrel
ORSA, 3%
Producing States'
Share, 1%
Transport/Admin
Costs, 11%
GOSS, 19%
Based of flat
US$40/bbl ORSA
Reference Price
Government of Sudan,
37%
Contractor Share (incl.
Cost Recovery), 30%
Wood Mackenzie Brent price assumption is US$62.00/bbl in 2007, US$55.00/bbl in 2008, US$49.00/bbl in 2009,
US$43.08/bbl in 2010 remaining flat in real terms thereafter.
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Future GOSS Revenue Sensitivities
Revenues to GOSS will be sensitive to a
number of factors
Oil Price
•
•
If the Dar Blend could be sold at a higher
price this would also directly benefit all
parties in Sudan
Oil Production
•
•
There is a strong relationship between
global oil prices and GOSS revenues
Has a direct impact on revenues. A
positive investment climate is required to
sustain investment and production
Transportation/Marketing Administration
Costs
•
1,800
350
1,600
300
1,400
250
1,200
1,000
200
Base Case
Global Price +10%
800
150
Global Price -10%
600
Production +10%
SDD billion
•
US$ million
•
100
Production -10%
400
Costs +10%
200
50
Costs -10%
0
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
These costs could potentially use up a
significant part of the revenues. Reducing
costs would benefit all parties.
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Contacts
Stewart Williams
Senior Analyst, Africa Energy Research
T: +44 131 243 4534
E: [email protected]
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