Transcript Diesel Bus - Clean Air

Getting From Problem to Solution:
Reducing Diesel Pollution From
Goods Movement
Rich Kassel
September 23, 2011
[email protected]
Introduction: A Vision of Goods
Movement
• We all want and need stuff—more all the time
• Need to address all key pollution sources to
create a sustainable goods movement future
• Believe it or not, the regulatory process is in
place
• But turnover is slow – trucks, equipment, and
ships last a long time
• So how do we speed things up in an
economically and politically constrained
world?
How the Dump Dirty Diesels
Campaign began…
Why do we care about diesel
pollution?
In 1995, most midtown PM at streetlevel came from diesel vehicles
Average PM Source Contribution in Midtown Manhattan
Diesel
52%
Oil Combustion
1%
Auto
6%
Road Dust
9%
Sea Salt
6%
Iron
4%
Source: New York State PM10 Implementation Plan, September 1995.
Long Range Transport
22%
NYC Transit Clean-Fuel Bus Program
showed Clean Diesels possible
MTA New York City Transit Bus Fleet Emissions
Annual PM Emissions
300
250
Tons per year
200
150
97%
Reduction
100
50
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Applicable lessons from NYC Transit
for the Goods Movement debate
• Use objective criteria: Technology-neutral,
fuel-neutral measurement of PM and NOx
reductions
• 90% of the NYC Transit’s emission benefits
came from “retiring and replacing” the older
buses regardless of fuel/technology chosen
for the new buses
• Retrofits worked—but perhaps best only in
sophisticated maintenance environments?
• Solutions that are scalable and replicable will
provide benefits beyond the initial program
A Bit of Context:
Goods Movement impacts
In A Few Quick Slides
Global Shipping and Particulates Go
Together
Reducing Ship Pollution Saves Lives
Along Coasts and Inland
Premature deaths
from PM
Case 2b Mortality
due to Ship
Cardiopulmonary
Emissions
Less than 10
!
10 - 25
!
26 - 50
!
51 - 100
!
101 - 200
!
201 - 300
Cleaner marine fuels would reduce nationwide ship health impacts by ~ 60 %.
Source: Corbett, J. J.; Winebrake, J. J.; Green, E. H.; Kasibhatla, P.; Eyring, V.; Lauer, A., Mortality from
Ship Emissions: A Global Assessment. Environmental Science & Technology 2007, 41, (24), 8512–8518
It’s not just PM – Goods Movement is a
major CO2 emitter
>30% efficiency
<3 year Paybacks
= > $70bn a year is being
wasted
Older ship engines are so dirty…
…and kids live nearby…
…Containers are quiet neighbors…
…until the train shows up to get them…
…or they leave the port by truck…
The Regulatory Structure is in Place
EPA truck standards are cleanest in
the world…but old trucks are dirty
1994
(6/93)
5.0
1998
[g/HP-hr]
4.0
NOx
500 PPM
SULFUR
2002
2.5
1.2
2007
ULSD
15 PPM
(7/06)
0.2
2010010
0.01
0.10
PM
[g/HP-hr]
IMO Emissions Control Area Will
Reduce Ship Pollution
• ECA: 200 nm from US and Canadian coast
• Two key components:
 2015: Sulfur levels drop from today’s
>25,000 ppm to 1,000 ppm
 2016: PM cut 85% and NOx cut 80%
• Benefits: 14,000 premature deaths and
>$100B in net health costs by 2020
Comprehensive Program Will Avoid
~40,000 Premature Deaths Annually
Rule
Covers
Premature Deaths
Avoided
1999 Tier 2
Cars, light trucks, SUVs
4,300
2001 Highway Diesel
Trucks and Buses
8,300
2004 Nonroad Diesel
Farm, Construction, etc.
12,000
2008 Locomotive/Marine Trains and ships
1,100
2010 Emission Control
Area (IMO ECA)
14,000
Ocean-going vessels w/in
200 nm of US
Note: Premature death numbers are annual estimates, as of 2020 for IMO ECA, 2030 for all others
U.S. Vehicle Regulations Are Extremely
Cost-Effective
Total Cost: approx. $13
Billion
Total Benefits: approx. $290
Billion
Costs
Benefits
1999 Tier 2 Light-Duty
2001 Truck and Bus Rule
2004 Nonroad Diesel
2008 Locomotive-Marine
2010 IMO ECA
0
20
40
60
80
100
$ Billion Annually in 2030
120
…But These Engines Last for Decades,
So We Need to Accelerate
the Phase-out…
2 Examples of Drayage Clean-up
Worth Exploring
Example 1: POLA Clean Air Action
Plan
• Resulted from NRDC’s China Shipping
lawsuit.
• Addressed all major sources of port pollution:
trucks, ships, trains, cargo handling
equipment.
• Set firm goals for reductions of diesel
particulate matter from each source.
Solutions in the Clean Air Action
Plan
• Diesel trucks:
 Progressive ban on older trucks
 Cargo container fee on dirty trucks
 Structural change in employment structure
• Ships:
 Cold ironing
 Cleaner fuel
 Speed reduction
• Cargo handling equipment:
 Electrification
• Trains:
 Anti-idling recommendations
Example 2: Developing the PANYNJ
Truck Replacement Program
• Multi-stakeholder effort in 2009-2010, cochaired by PANYNJ and NRDC
 Included all key sectors
• Why different than POLA?: Huge economic
and political constraints after 2008 recession
• Different goals: truck replacements and
reduced emissions only
 Container fees, labor issues not on the
table
PANYNJ Truck Replacement and
Phase Out Programs
• Truck Phase Out Program
 Phase 1: Ban pre-1994 NY engines, as of Jan. 2011
 Phase 2: Ban pre-2007 engines, as of Jan. 2017
 Trucks register in Drayage Truck Registry, voluntary sticker system
• Truck Replacement Program (TRP):
 Received 180 applications for 202 trucks (72% IOO)
 63 trucks sold (70% IOO)
 Eligibility now expanded to trucks with 2003 or older engines
• Supplemental TRP
 $1.57M EPA grant; $4.3M PA funds (financing @5.25%)
 Eligibility: Trucks with engines 2003 or older
 Replacement vehicle must be 2007 emission compliant
2010 Drayage Truck
Characterization Survey
Pre-1994 Frequent Callers
Pre-1994 Total
Total Frequent Callers
Total Trucks
Most Common MY
Average MY
2010
196 (4.7%)
390 (4.5%)
4189
8496
2000
2000
2008
709 (16%)
2406 (15%)
4544
16286
1999 & 2000
1998
Next Steps for PANYNJ Clean Truck
Program—and other new programs?
• Given budget constraints, will there be
continued financial support?
• What additional steps need to be taken for
phase 2 (i.e., post-2007 engines in 2017)?
• Can EPA Smartway Drayage Program help
accelerate clean-up?
• If ships are wasting fuel, can ports create
incentives for ship efficiency too?
Conclusions
• Thanks to EPA and IMO regulations, new
truck, equipment, and ship engines will be
much cleaner than old models
• But turnover is very, very slow
• No one-size-fits-all approach to accelerating
the clean-up: POLA and PANYNJ show
different ways to eliminate old trucks
• Successful solutions must take into account
needs of all stakeholders and local
environmental, economic, and political
conditions
If A Picture is Worth A Thousand
Words, How Much Are These Two
Slides Worth?
Southern California Cancer Risk from
Air Pollution: 2000 Data
Cancers per million
Source: SCAQMD, Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study II, March 2000
So. CA Cancer Risk from Air Pollution:
When All Trucks, Equipment, and Ships
are Clean
Cancers per million
Source: SCAQMD, Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study II, March 2000