Transcript Firewise 06 Powerpoint

Firewise 2006
Staying Alive in Santa Fe During a Wildfire
Shelley Nolde Rossbach, Santa Fe FD
Chris White, Anchor Point Group
Stephen Guerin, Redfish Group
City of Santa Fe
Wildland Urban Interface
Wildland Fire Hazard and Risk Analysis
Prepared for:
Santa Fe Fire Department
Santa Fe, New Mexico
Submitted By:
Anchor Point
Boulder, Colorado
May 2006
Flame Length – Extreme Conditions
Rate of Spread – Average Conditions
Rate of Spread – Extreme Conditions
Crown Fire – Average Conditions
Crown Fire – Extreme Conditions
Agent-Based Modeling of Wildfire Evacuation
Joshua Thorp, RedfishGroup, Santa Fe, NM
Stephen Guerin, RedfishGroup, Santa Fe, NM
Frank Wimberly, RedfishGroup, Santa Fe, NM
Michelle Rossbach, City of Santa Fe Fire Department
Owen Densmore, RedfishGroup, Santa Fe, NM
Michael Agar, Ethknoworks, Santa Fe, NM
Douglas Roberts, RTI International, Nambe, NM
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Modeling questions and uses
Modeling wildfire
Modeling traffic
Tool workflow and gaps
Future Directions
Shelter-In-Place Controversy
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Cova, T.J., Dennison, P.E., Kim, T.H., and Moritz, M.A. (2005) Setting
wildfire evacuation trigger-points using fire spread modeling and GIS.
Transactions in GIS, 9(4): 603-617
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Emerging Issues in Wildland Fire Protection. When Wildfire Threatens:
Should Residents Stay or Evacuate? Journal of the National Fire Protection
Association. Wildland Fire Management Section. October, 2004.
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Lindroth, R. (2004). Community defense from wildfire, an international
comparison. An applied research project submitted to the National Fire
Academy as part of the July, 2004 Leading Community Risk Reduction
course.
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Oaks, D. (2000). Fight or Flight? Fire Chief. April 1, 2000
Photo courtesy of Don Pearman
Cova (2006)
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Modeling questions and uses
Modeling wildfire
Modeling traffic
Tool workflow and gaps
Future Directions
“Time of Arrival” Map
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Modeling questions and uses
Modeling wildfire
Modeling traffic
Tool workflow and gaps
Future Directions
Empirical Traffic Flows for Calibration
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Traffic Volume
Traffic Volume
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9/21/2006
9/17/2006
9/13/2006
9/9/2006
9/5/2006
9/1/2006
20:00 - 21:00
16:00 - 17:00
12:00 - 13:00
08:00 - 09:00
04:00 - 05:00
00:00 - 01:00
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Date
Time of Day
Left Turn
Left Turn
Thru 1
Thru 2
Thru 3
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Thru 1
Thru 2
Thru 3
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Cova, T.J., and Church, R.L. (1997) Modelling community evacuation vulnerability using GIS. International Journal
of Geographical Information Science, 11(8): 763-784
Cova, T.J., and Johnson, J.P. (2002) Microsimulation of neighborhood evacuations in the urban-wildland interface.
Environment and Planning A, 34(12): 2211-2229
Cova, T.J., and Johnson, J.P. (2003) A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing. Transportation
Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 37(7): 579-604
Cova, T.J. (2005) Public safety in the urban-wildland interface: Should fire-prone communities have a maximum
occupancy? Natural Hazards Review, 6(3): 99-108
Cova, T.J., Dennison, P.E., Kim, T.H., and Moritz, M.A. (2005) Setting wildfire evacuation trigger-points using fire
spread modeling and GIS. Transactions in GIS, 9(4): 603-617
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Modeling questions and uses
Modeling wildfire
Modeling traffic
Tool workflow and gaps
Future Directions
future work
• Augmented reality table for sand table exercises
• Collaboration with Sandia Labs - Data Analysis & Visualization
Group
Firewise 2006
Staying Alive in Santa Fe During a Wildfire
Agent-Based Modeling of Wildfire Evacuation
Shelley Nolde Rossbach, Santa Fe FD
Chris White, Anchor Point Group
Stephen Guerin, Redfish Group
End
Evacuation – Definition
• the movement of persons from a
dangerous place to a safe refuge.