Transcript Gainesville Presentation - Lane Council of Governments

Choices for the
Future
A Presentation on the
Willamette Valley
Alternative Transportation
Futures Project
Transportation and Land Use Planning
Applications Forum
Gainesville, Florida
October 19, 2001
Presentation Overview
•
•
•
•
What Prompted This Project?
What were our Objectives?
How did we carryout the Project?
What did we Learn?
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Origins of Oregon’s Land Use
Program
• Concerns over:
– loss of farm and forest land
– sprawl
– environmental impacts of growth
• Senate Bill 100
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Key Provisions of SB 100
• 19 Planning Goals dealing with a
range of issues including:
– housing, transportation, urbanization,
farm and forest land
• Establishment of Urban Growth
Boundaries (UGB’s)
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Beyond SB 100
• Move beyond focus on UGB “Islands”
• Willamette Valley Efforts
– Partnership for Valley Future Conference
(Oregon Progress Board)
- 1994
- 1995
Willamette Valley Livability Forum - 1996
– Willamette Valley Transportation Strategy
–
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
The WVLF is a Voluntary Consortium
of Over 80 Members
• Forum Purpose Help Valley residents and
decision-makers find and promote
solutions to growth and
development issues in the Valley
• Forum Goals:
•
•
•
•
Share information
Make connections
Build a vision
Advise state and local officials
WVLF Members
Citizen Leaders
Business/Industry
4
9
State Government
28
21
Educational
Non-Profit Orgs
12
6
8
Local and Reg. Govt
Tribal and Fed. Govt
Opportunity
• Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research
Consortium
– Willamette River Basin Case Study
• 1000 Friends of Oregon
– Willamette Valley Alternative Futures Research Project
• ODOT’s Development of Statewide Model
Alternative Transportation
Futures Project
Purpose
1) Take a long-range look
at the future of land use
and transportation in
Oregon’s Willamette
Valley.
2) Identify policy choices
to avoid or minimize
future impacts of growth
on transportation.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Guided by a 14-member Project
Steering Committee
Jon Chandler, OBIA
Robert Liberty, 1000 Friends of Oregon
Chris Hagerbaumer, OTRAN
Bob Russell, OHUA
Richard Brandman, Metro
Bob Cortright, DLCD
Gary Johnson, ODOT
Ed Gallagher, Governor's Comm.
Dev. Office
Craig Greenleaf, ODOT
Susan Brody, WVLF
Marcia Kelley, MWACT
Tom Schwetz, LCOG
Mike Propes, Polk County
Joan Baker, EPA
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Approach
• Used state-of-art computer modeling
techniques
• Simulated effects of alternative land
use and transportation policies over
the next 50 years for 11,500 Sq Mi
Valley and State as a whole
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Integrated Statewide
Computer Model
Analytical tool to help
understand complex
interactions among
Oregon’s economy, land
use patterns, and
transportation system
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Scope of Integrated Model
• Designed to address the policy concerns in Oregon
such as the effects of:
– Land use and transportation policies on population and employment
distributions;
– Land use on travel behavior;
– Highway capacity increases on travel behavior and land use;
– Transit investments on highway use; and
– Changes in the state’s population and economy on transportation and
land use.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
122-Analysis Zone Structure
Not high definition – the
model’s resolution
lends itself to regional
levels of analysis, rather
than evaluations of
short-distance trips.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Economic Submodel Calculates
overall economic activity
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Location Submodel Allocates
population and employment growth
A
B
C
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Transportation Submodel Calculates travel
resulting from movement of goods/svcs
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Policy Choices Considered
• Land available for
development
• Investments in
highways and transit
• Cost of driving
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Evaluated Seven Scenarios
• Created scenarios with distinct
differences to facilitate evaluation of
results
• Evaluated each to the year 2050 in 5year increments
• Used same statewide population and
employment forecasts
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Framework for Scenarios
No Action
Mile Tax
Compact Dev
Transit
& Hwy
Land Use
Measures
Hybrids 1&2
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
What have we
learned ?
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
There’s No Silver Bullet
Whatever we do, an
additional 1.7 million people
will result in increased traffic
congestion levels.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
We can have an effect on just how crowded
highways will become in years ahead.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Average Willamette Valley Traffic
Congestion Between Cities
80%
No Action
Percent Increase Over 2000 Levels
Compact
70%
Highway
Transit
60%
Tax
Hybrid 1
50%
Hybrid 2
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Combining compact development, increased transit
service, additional highway lanes, and higher driving costs
reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels in half.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Other Key Findings
• Transit:
– Transportation pricing increases transit ridership.
– Increasing the frequency and convenience of public transit
encourages more use.
• Freight:
– The hybrid approach also provides the greatest benefit for
truck freight mobility
– Congestion impacts truck freight movement to a greater extent
than passenger travel.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Effects on Population and
Employment Distribution
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Expanding public transit concentrates
jobs in major urban centers while
pulling population to outlying cities.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Expanding
highways
draws both
people and
jobs to
outlying cities.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Overall Findings
•
No single approach (more efficient land use,
infrastructure investments, or roadway pricing)
is as effective in keeping traffic moving as is a
balanced combination of these approaches
(Hybrids).
•
The model results confirm the interconnection
between the economy, land use and
transportation and reinforce the importance of
regional approaches for transportation planning.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Wrap-up
• Process Lessons
• Criticisms
• Things to improve
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Process Lessons
• Changes the Nature of the Planning Question
• Difficulty exporting the “Aha”s
– Process is Experiential
• Brings home the limits of public policy
• Value is in exploring broader causes and effects
• Decision aiding, not decision making
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Criticisms
• Complex relationships defy modeling for current
conditions, let alone Fifty years out for a whole
state
• Highly abstracted results are easily
misused/misunderstood by interest groups
• Avoids more difficult and detailed planning
needed in the short run
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Next Generation
Effort currently under way to improve robustness
of statewide model by:
Increasing geographic resolution (i.e., more analysis
zones) and expanding detail of transportation network
Accounting for freight transported by rail and barge.
Adding capabilities to evaluate peak congestion periods
Representing economic interactions between Oregon
and rest of the nation.
Alternative Transportation Futures:
A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
For more information,
visit the Willamette Valley
Livability Forum’s
web site at:
www.wvlf.org/atf.html