Transcript Development of the Strategic Plan for the Arizona

Development of the Strategic Plan
for the Arizona University System
Strategic Planning, Budget &
Finance Committee
September 19, 2007
Nation Ahead in Baccalaureate Attainment
Population 25 Years and Older
To Achieve National Parity, Need
About 60,000 More in 2006.
28.0
27.0
26.0
25.0
24.0
23.0
22.0
21.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Arizona Bachelors Plus Attainment Rate
2004
2005
US Bachelors Plus Attainment Rate
2006
Arizona Residents 25 Years of Age or Older with a Bachelors Degrees or Higher
Goal to Reach Projected National Educational Attainment Rate of 34.2% in 2020
2,500,000
2,125,854
2,000,000
2,015,324
Projected
1,811,207
Actual
1,627,763
1,500,000
1,462,899
1,314,733
1,181,573
1,061,900
1,000,000
946,712
766,212
Double the Numbers:
834,732
One Million Plus
500,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
National Imperatives for Action
• 60% of jobs today require some postsecondary
education
• Almost one-third of students who enroll are not college
ready and are placed immediately into remedial
courses.
• Nationwide, only 71% of 9th grade students graduate
from high school on time, and worse, only slightly
more than 50 percent of black and Latino students
graduate.
• Only 14.9% of 9th graders will make it through high
school, enter college and earn a four-year degree on
time. (9.1% in Arizona).
Source: 2005 National Education Summit on High Schools
Educational Attainment and
Income - Nationally
Median Earnings in 2003
Unemployment Rate in 2004
1.7
Professional
$95,699
1.8
Doctorate
$79,403
2.5
Master’s
$59,508
3.0
Bachelor’s
$49,899
3.7
Associate
$37,605
4.5
Some College
$35,714
5.0
High School
$30,766
8.5
Less Than
High School
$22,939
Source: Postsecondary Education Opportunity
Median Income by Education Level
Arizona 2006
Graduate/Professional
$53,491
Bachelor's Degree
$43,812
Some College
$31,934
Population 25 Years
Plus
$31,678
High School Graduate
$26,235
$19,571
Less Than High School
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey
$50,000
$60,000
Unemployment Rate by Education Level
Arizona 2006
Bachelor's Degree Plus
2.30%
Some College
3.50%
Population 25 Years
Plus
3.80%
High School Graduate
4.30%
Less Than High School
0.00%
7.50%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey
7.00%
8.00%
US College Graduation Rate Is Below Average
Among Developed Countries, 2004
Rank
OECD Member Country
Graduation Rate
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
10
10
Japan
Turkey
Ireland
United Kingdom
Korea
Spain
Finland
Iceland
Germany
Mexico
Australia
Denmark
Netherlands
94
88
85
83
79
77
75
73
70
69
69
69
69
14
United States
66
15
Czech Republic
16
Belgium
17
Austria
17
France
19
Sweden
20
Italy
Source: Organization
for Economic Co-operation and
Development,
Education at a Glance 2004.
61
60
59
59
48
42
What is National Survey of Student Success
(NSSE)?
• Annual survey that examines the extent to which
students engage in educational practices associated with
high levels of learning and development
• Results provide an estimate of how first-year and senior
year students spend their time & what they gain from
attending college
• NSSE items represent empirically confirmed “good
practices” or behaviors associated with desired
outcomes of college
• The survey includes 1,100 institutions and about
275,000 students
Categories of NSSE
•
•
•
•
•
Level of Academic Challenge
Active & Collaborative Learning
Student-Faculty Interaction
Enriching Educational Experience
Supportive Campus Environment
Tuition and Fees as a Percent of
2006 State Median Income
Nebraska
West Virginia
Maryland
Montana
North Carolina
Louisiana
South Dakota
Washington
New York
New Mexico
Georgia
Colorado
Arizona
Idaho
Utah
Hawaii
Alaska
Florida
Wyoming
Nevada
Rank
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
Tuition &
4-person
Total:
Mandatory
Fees
families
$56,940
$68,917
$5,836
$44,012
$55,920
$4,476
$77,839
$94,017
$7,906
Top of the Bottom One-Third
$51,006
$60,576
$5,174
$52,336
$61,420
$5,034
$48,261
$60,161
$4,621
$53,806
$63,508
$5,072
$63,705
$75,140
$5,985
$62,138
$75,513
$5,631
$48,199
$52,034
$4,336
$56,112
$66,711
$4,964
$64,614
$75,775
$5,643
$55,709
$65,050
$4,686
$51,640
$58,066
$4,200
$58,141
$63,586
$4,686
$70,277
$84,472
$4,523
$69,872
$71,781
$4,455
$54,445
$65,024
$3,330
$57,505
$71,559
$3,515
$61,466
$66,095
$3,684
Tuition & Fees
As a % of
Median
Family
Income
10.2%
10.2%
10.2%
Tuition & Fees
As a % of
4-Person
Family
Income
8.5%
8.0%
8.4%
10.1%
9.6%
9.6%
9.4%
9.4%
9.1%
9.0%
8.8%
8.7%
8.4%
8.1%
8.1%
6.4%
6.4%
6.1%
6.1%
6.0%
8.5%
8.2%
7.7%
8.0%
8.0%
7.5%
8.3%
7.4%
7.4%
7.2%
7.2%
7.4%
5.4%
6.2%
5.1%
4.9%
5.6%
Net Cost as % of Median Income
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
21%
10,000
12,141
12,876
11,344
12,120
ASU
UofA
NAU
System Average
Source: IPEDS, August 2007.
-0
6
20
05
-0
5
20
04
-0
4
20
03
-0
3
20
02
-0
2
20
01
-0
1
20
00
-0
0
19
99
-9
9
19
98
-9
8
19
97
-9
7
19
96
-9
6
19
95
-9
5
19
94
-9
4
19
93
-9
3
19
92
-9
2
19
91
-9
1
19
90
Education Degrees Awarded
Arizona Universities
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Doctoral Degrees Awarded
Arizona’s Universities
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
90
19
1
-9
91
19
2
-9
92
19
3
-9
93
19
4
-9
Source: IPEDS, August 2007.
94
19
5
-9
95
19
6
-9
97
69
19
97
19
8
-9
99
89
19
99
19
0
-0
01
00
20
01
20
2
-0
02
20
3
-0
04
30
20
05
40
20
06
20
6
-0
University Research Expenditures
(in thousands of $s)
John's Hopkins (1) - $1,229,426
$1,400,000
UCLA (2) - $772,569
$1,200,000
U of Michigan (3) - $769,126
$1,000,000
$800,000
$720,026
$650,811
$617,978
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
FY 2003
FY 2004
UofA
ASU
FY 2005
NAU
Performance Relative to Resources: Degree-to-Enrollment Ratio
Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates, and Total Funding
per FTE1, Public Research Institutions, 2002-03
30
25
Ratio of performance to
funding associated with states
performing at or above 80th
percentile
WA
IL
CT
CA
FL
OR
VA
CO
NH
MO
IA WY
UT
US
WI
NE
IN
OH OK
RI
MT
LA
NV
ND
AR
Ratio of performance to
funding associated with
average of all states
MD
MI GA
MA
NJ MS
TX
KS
20
AZ
DE
SC
TN
ID AL WV
NM
PA NY
HI
KY
ME
NC
VT
MN
SD
15
10
AK
Source: Patrick Kelly and Dennis Jones. (2006.) A New Look at the Institutional Component of Higher
Education Finance: A Guide for Evaluating Performance Relative to Financial Resources. Boulder,
CO: NCHEMS.
Notes: 1. Total Funding per FTE = (state and local appropriations + net tuition and fees) per full-time
equivalent (FTE) student.
5
$9,000
$11,000
Source: NCHEMS, from IPEDS data
$13,000
$15,000
$17,000
$19,000
$21,000
$23,000
To Achieve National Educational
Attainment Rate by 2025
• Raise first-year retention rates from 72.7%
to 84.7%.
• Raise six-year graduation rates of firsttime freshmen from 51% to 63%.
• Raise four-year graduation rates of
transfer students from 53.1% to 65.1%.
• Raise community college transfer rate to 4
year institutions from 2.8% to 14.8%.
• The results are . . . . .
Universities' Growth
ABOR Growth
National Average Scenario
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20
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20
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20
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20
07
20
06
Undergraduate Enrollment Growth Projections
160,000
150,000
About 16,000
or 11%.
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
Universities' Growth
ABOR Growth
National Average Scenario
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20
20
19
20
18
20
17
20
16
20
15
20
14
20
13
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12
20
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All Students Enrollment Growth Projections
220,000
200,000
About 20,000
or 11%.
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
Annual Change in Enrollment
All Students
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
2007
(actual)
2009
(estimate)
2011
(estimate)
ASU Annual Change
2013
(estimate)
NAU Annual Change
2015
(estimate)
2017
(estimate)
UofA Annual Change
2019
(estimate)
Enrollment of All Students to Reach National
Average Educational Attainment
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2006
(actual
2008
(estimate)
2010
(estimate)
2012
(estimate)
ASU
NAU
2014
(estimate)
UofA
2016
(estimate)
2018
(estimate)
2020
(estimate)