Transcript Slide 1

ONS Economic Forum
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/getinvolved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html
15 January 2015
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What’s next
Frankie Kay, Head of National Accounts Methods and Development
Derek Bird, Head of Prices
ONS Economic Forum
15 January 2015
2
What’s next - outline
• ONS response to NSQR of National
Accounts and BoP
• Flow of Funds
• Blue Book 2015 plans
• New ONS website
• Prices update – owner occupier housing
costs, house price consultation, webscraping and scanner data
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NSQR of National Accounts and Balance of Payments
ONS Response - Overview
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ONS very supportive of review recommendations and suggestions and grateful to
Dame Kate Barker and Art Ridgeway
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ONS accepts most of the recommendations completely and partially accepts the
remainder (where full acceptance requires further practical considerations,
review or consultation)
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Response to the review means we will:
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develop annual volume balanced Supply and Use tables. This will include the introduction of
annual double deflation of Gross Value Added, reintroduction of the Purchases survey and a
possible change to the alignment of GDP(O) with annual expenditure.
develop the IDBR
review capital stock methodology including consultation with experts
prioritise development of the extended flow of funds dataset
draw on wider statistical and economic expertise to support and enhance our work
Response work will be open to public consultation later in 2015 and will
influence future work plans
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Flow of Funds
• Developing financial data is considered
essential for identifying the build-up of risks
in the financial sector and to understand
better the financial connections. An
important part of this development is the
‘Flow of Funds’.
• New tables published in BB14 (Chapter 14).
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Flow of Funds
• ONS is considering wider options for developing Flow of Funds
datasets, in conjunction with the Bank of England
• Wider consultation and user engagement will be taken forward this
year
• A business case is being prepared around options by May/June
2015
• Email: [email protected]
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Scope of BB 2015
• On-going work to address Gross National Income (GNI)
reservations
• Classification changes
• Other methodological improvements
• Take on of new data and moving forward base and
reference year
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BB15 Communications
• Similar process to Blue Book 2014
• Series of articles on impact of changes
• Seminars and user groups
• External peer review
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Saving and “visible” income
• Users have requested a measure of the saving ratio that corresponds
more closely to the economic factors that are pertinent to
households' decisions on what to spend and what to save.
• ONS considering whether to publish a supplementary indicator that
users may find useful, including reviewing the approach taken by
other countries
• Stakeholders will be consulted ahead of any publication
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Alpha.ons.gov.uk
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House price index consultation
• User consultation around the development of
a single 'official' house price index - closed 12
December 2014.
• Over 40 responses received and good
attendance at a series of user events held
across UK. ONS will publish formal response to
the consultation by mid-March 2015.
• Further work to follow after which a case for
the next stage of the development will be put
before departments for agreement to
proceed.
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Owner occupiers’ housing costs in
CPIH
• National Statistics status was suspended for CPIH in August
2014
• ONS and VOA have completed work looking into Owner
Occupiers’ Housing (OOH) component
• Growth in private rents now more responsive to recession
• Still at odds with HPI, but rents a stock measure and HPI a
flow measure
• 70% of rent updates result in no price change
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OOH - next steps
• Improvements to OOH in CPIH will be introduced as part of
the 2015 annual update on 24 March 2015
• Revise only OOH component of CPIH back to 2005
• Article documenting the improvements to be published 30
January 2015, responds to Johnson Review: Recommendation
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•
Planned user event in February/March around housing
statistics
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OOH - next steps
• Also take opportunity of revision to VOA data to align OOH
weight in CPIH with national accounts estimates historically
and anticipate methodological changes to the measurement
of imputed rents, planned for BB16.
• Begin process for re-accreditation of National Statistic status
for CPIH (from 30 January 2015), aim for process to be
completed March/April 2015
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Prices by webscraping
ONS is looking at alternative options for obtaining
price quotes including:
1. Scanner data
2. Web scraping
Web scraping can be:
1. collected by the ONS directly
2. purchased.
ONS is investigating both of these options – in two
research phases
Phase one: Web scraping started in April 2014
collecting 35 CPI/RPI items from 3 online
supermarkets – 6,500 price quotes collected daily
Prototype cleaning and classifying programs have also
been set up – and exploratory analysis is being
conducted on the data
Phase two: Will assess data ONS has recently
purchased from mysupermarket.com, and further
explore methodological and technical challenges of
using such data
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Prices by webscraping
Such data has the benefits of:
1. Being high frequency
2. Collecting many items
3. Timely collection
High frequency data allow detailed
investigation of price distributions at the
lowest level
It has its challenges, such as:
1.Item classification
2. Methodological challenges
3. Website diversity
4. Website change
5. Cleaning challenges
ONS is learning/using open source tools,
data science concepts and big data
technologies to overcome these
challenges
The production of (very) experimental
indices...more methodological research needed
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Scanner Data Project
• Scanner data are point of sale data held within retailers’
systems. They can:
o provide real-time price and quantity information, allowing for use of up
to date weights
o allow for complete coverage of sales by selected retailers
o create data handling and acquisition challenges
• ONS has test scanner data from one UK retailer for two
products (shampoo and toothpaste) (JanIndex2012values
= 100)
Shampoo
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CPI item level index
• Investigations are in early stages
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o Continue to explore potential uses
o Learn from other countries whose
– research is further advanced
Scanner data item level index
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Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
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Forthcoming event – Trade &
Balance of Payments Seminar
• 9.00am to 1.00pm, Friday 23 January
• Will cover:
trade balance developments and why deficit persists.
UK net income account and its recent deterioration.
the UK's net international investment position and its
expanding deficit.
change in the treatment of banks' profits and the
impact on BoP up to, during and since the financial
crisis.
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ONS Economic Forum
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/getinvolved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html
15 January 2015
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