Development and Institutions

Commerce and manufactures can seldom flourish long in any state which does not enjoy a regular administration of justice, in which the people do not feel themselves secure in the possession of their property, in which the faith of contracts is not supported by law, and in which the authority of the state is not supposed to be regularly employed in enforcing the payment of debts from all those who are able to pay. Commerce and manufactures, in short, can seldom flourish in any state in which there is not a certain degree of confidence in the justice of government.

-- Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations

Today’s Agenda

• • • • • Review Dependency Theory South’s response to Dependency Theory Failures and debt: A decade of development wiped out But why do some countries develop while others don’t?

Modified Liberalism: Institutions

MNCs and Dependency

Core (North) Periphery (South) Periphery Brain Drain and Luxury exports

Technology for Luxury production

Core

Periphery

MNCs and Dependency

Core (North) Periphery (South) Periphery Brain Drain and Luxury exports

Technology for Luxury production

Core

Periphery

Southern Response to Dependency Theory: Economic Nationalism • • • • The “South” did not have the strength to participate in the international economy By 1960s, Independence for many countries And had clear majority in the U.N.

Rose up against the GATT

The Problem of Development from an Economic Nationalist Perspective • • • Exploitation of the South by the North Wealth of the Rich depends on the Poverty of the Poor Northern Dominance over the South – Colonial legacies – International institutions – Example of Doha Round of WTO Negotiations

The Domestic Solution: ISI

• • • What is ISI?

Infant industry arguments But ISI distorts free trade

The International Solution: NIEO – A Global welfare state • • • Historical Origins Theoretical Origins: Dependency Theory Rich Country Response

• • • • NIEO Program: Transfer of resources from North to South Finance – No “conditionality” for loans – Creation of a new international currency Trade – Free access to rich markets – Stable prices for commodities MNCs – Right to nationalize resources – International regulation and supervision of MNCs Aid – All states must conform to a target of .75% of GDP in Aid

Any Progress?

• • • • • • The South’s voice was heard Aid Targets not met No international Currency The Generalized System of Preferences No governance over MNCs No real progress…..

The Failure of “stages,” NIEO, ISI, and the Problem of Debt • • • • • NIEO was abandoned Tariffs remained in place after industry was thriving Because of “distributional coalitions” The growth of a base of inefficient industries which could not compete internationally Which left countries dependent on aid and loans

Why the Debt?

• • • Oil Shocks of the 1970s Private banks were willing lenders A marriage made in heaven.

Why was the debt a problem?

• • Debt is not necessarily a bad thing—in fact it can be a good thing.

Then what’s the problem?

The Fed raises interest rates

Internal and external causes of debt • • • Global recession Culture and institutions An unregulated international financial system

How it works

Poor

The Result

• • Interest payments outstrip export earnings Net transfer of financial resources from South to North

A Decade of Development wiped out by Debt • • • Declining growth rates Falling living standards Riots

Liberal response:

• • Heavy loans made in the 1970s because of the oil crisis Net outflow because countries did not use their loans wisely

Joe’s story

Is Dependency Theory just a complaint?

• • • • Provides explanation for poverty of the south but not a good prescription NIEO failed Bowing out of the international neo-liberal economy won’t work Have any strategies to promote development actually worked?

Testing Dependency Theory

• • • • • • Dependency perspectives have evolved There has been an impressive rise of former poor countries of the South in Latin America and in Asia.

ISI worked in some places, as we shall see Countries could develop WITH Dependency!

Dependent Development Negotiations between governments, firms, and MNCs

A modification of Dependency Theory: Dependent Development • • • • Sometimes the surplus is invested in the host country---location of plants, services This can stimulate domestic industry and business The result: “Dependent Development” So maybe stagnation is not inevitable

If dependent development is possible, why do MNCs invest in some countries and not others?

• The answer might be government policies and institutions

Why institutions are needed to spur development • Poor countries can’t afford to wait while natural market forces work their beneficial effects.

– Market forces take too long – Produce unbalanced economies – Vulnerable to price shocks – Vulnerable to manipulation by strong trading partners

Poor Countries can be seen as “late developers” ….adding to our terminology • • • Liberal and modified Liberal Theory – – Developing countries Less Developed Countries (LDCs) – – Emerging markets Late Developers – Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs) Dependency theory • Underdeveloped Countries Neutral?

– The “South”

Requirement for development: A developmental State • • • • • Example of Soviet Union Compatible with Keynes Compatible with embedded liberalism Historical experience Gerschenkron’s contribution

If You’re Early, use the market! (?)

If You’re Late, Use the State!

• • Development Banks The STATE – Czarist Russia and Soviet Union

The advantages of backwardness

• • • • Need for rapid development British example Advantage of hindsight British investment in a “developing” country: the U.S.

It pays to be late

• • • • Latecomers grow faster Access to state-of-the-art technology Quick move to heavy industry Development is possible through contact with the International Economy

Latecomers grow faster…

Leapfrogging: Access to the Latest Technology

They move quickly to competitive industries

Development is possible through contact with the international economy

The more integration, the more growth

SUMMARY OF ALL DEVELOPMENT THEORIES

Accumulation of Capital is the Key to development • • • • • • • • Theories differ on the BEST way Trade? Aid?

Technology transfer?

State mobilization of capital?

ISI?

Growth of a middle class?

Dependent Development?

And the explanations are…..

• • • • Liberal claim…….

Marxists and dependency theorists maintain….

Economic Nationalists demand…… And Modified Liberals (Institutionalists) believe……

Who is right?

• • Maybe it depends on the conditions under which a country tries to develop And countries have to learn to play their cards right

What did Asia do right?

With the Fastest growth rate in the world……

Growing share of World GDP

China and India

And export high tech goods