Transcript No Slide Title

Crime Analysis
For
Crime Prevention
National Crime Prevention Association
2345 Crystal Drive, Suite 500
Arlington, VA 22202
202-261-4153 FAX 202-296-1356
[email protected]
www.ncpc.org/ncpa
Public Safety Priorities
Name Your Top 2
Crime Rates
Rank
_____
Crime Clearance Rates
_____
Service Call Volume
_____
Service Call Response Time
_____
Citizen Support/Satisfaction
_____
Other __________________________
_____
Other __________________________
_____
Law Enforcement Data
• What data does your department collect?
• Who collects the data?
• Who uses it?
• How is it used?
• How do you use it?
Why Analyze Crime Data?
• To help develop a
better understanding of
the nature crime and
disorder.
• To produce greater
community safety and
security.
• To evaluate the
effectiveness of crime
fighting programs.
Purposes of Analyzing Crime Data
1. To assist in making Tactical Decisions
By identifying and responding to
immediate crime problems.
Purposes of Analyzing Crime Data
2. To assist in gathering Criminal Intelligence
By gathering information about criminal activity to
prevent or solve crime.
Graffiti
www.a2planet.com/guide/work/index-revc.html
Single Adult Travel21orover.com
Illegal Sexual Activity
cruisingforsex.com
Purposes of Analyzing Crime Data
3. To assist in making Strategic Decisions
By Identifying & responding to historical crime trends.
10.5%
Monthly Burglary
Trends
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
6.5%
5.5%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Purposes of Analyzing Crime Data
4. To assist in making Administrative Decisions
By developing goals, policies and justification for
budgets and resource allocation.
Amount
Percent
$126,654,314
60%
County Aid
$76,408,387
34%
Town Aid
$12,728,747
6%
$215,791,448
100%
City Aid
599 Funding
TOTAL AID
DCJS - 599 Funds
How crime and related data are used.
599 Funding
DCJS - 599 Funds
• The Code of Virginia §9.1-165 authorizes financial
assistance to localities with police departments
through the "599" program.
• 40 cities, 9 counties and 126 towns receive "599"
funds.
• Money is allocated based on a formula developed
by the Department of Criminal Justice Services,
which uses population, crime rates, and social
services rates.
DCJS 599 Funds - Cities
Alexandria
$6,733,694
Charlottesville
$2,518,853
Hampton
$8,164,108
Harrisonburg
$1,637,925
Newport News
$10,940,765
Richmond
$17,388,383
Roanoke
Virginia Beach
$6,682,276
$13,686,769
DCJS 599 Funds - Counties
Albemarle Co
$2,513,773
Arlington Co
$7,696,281
Chesterfield Co
$9,334,677
Fairfax Co
$29,699,707
Henrico Co
$10,671,449
James City Co
$1,652,591
Prince George Co
$1,096,014
Prince William Co
$11,498,859
Roanoke Co
$2,245,035
599 Funding - DCJS Risk Factors
• Violent Crime Offenses
• Population
• Population per 100,000 sq meters of land
• % of Labor Force Unemployed
• % Age 16+ Unemployed or Not in Labor Force
• Median Income for Families with Children
• Males Released from Prison per 10,000 Males
• % of Children Under Age 18 Living in Poverty
• % of Students Receiving Free /Reduced-Price Lunch
599 Funding - DCJS Risk Factors
• % of Kindergartners Requiring Early Intervention
Reading Initiative
• % of Third Graders Failing English SOL
• % of Students Failing to Graduate on Time
• % of Students Dropping Out of School
• Violent & Threatening School Incidents/1,000
Students
• % of Population 25+ Not High School Graduates
• Births to Mothers with No High School Diploma
599 Funding - DCJS Risk Factors
• Births to Unmarried Mothers, % of All Live Births
• Low Birth Weight Babies, as a % of All Live Births
• Teen Pregnancy, Rate / 1,000 Females Age 10-19
• Children in Foster Care, Rate per 1,000
• Founded Reports of Suspected Child Abuse and
Neglect, Rate / 10,000
• Lead Poisoning Children Under 15, Rate/10,000
• Asthma Hospitalizations Children Under 6,
Rate / 100,000
Data Analysis Process
Step 1: Assess Overall Conditions
Determines overall risk.
Step 2: Draw Conclusions
Understand what the data means.
Step 3: Analyze the Problems
Recognize trends and patterns
Step 4: Respond to the Problems
Begins the process of developing solutions.
Crime in Your Community
• Describe a serious crime problem in your community?
• Where is it located?
• What types of crime take place there?
• What is the public's perception of the site?
• What are the negative impacts on the community?
• What can be done about it?
Primary Official Crime Data Sources
Uniform Crime Report - UCR
Federal Bureau of Investigation
National Crime Victimization Survey
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Uniform Crime Report - FBI
• The UCR Program began in 1930.
• Began as and is still a voluntary program.
• In Virginia and other states crime reporting is
mandatory and is managed by the State Police or
Bureau of Investigation.
National Crime Trends
Crimes per 100,000 persons
Total Crime
Property
Violent
Uniform Crime Report - VA
Uniform Crime Reports
Index or Part I Crimes
Violent Crime
Property Crime
• Murder
• Burglary
• Rape
• Larceny
• Robbery
• Auto Theft
• Assault
• Arson
Calculating Crime Rates
• Crimes
• Divided by Population
• Multiplied by 100,000
• Equals the Crime Rate
Crime Rate Example: Which city is Safer?
New York
1,946 murders
New Orleans
395 murders
Richmond
112 murders
Crime Rate Example: Which city is Safer?
New York
1,946 murders / 7,347,257 X 100,000 =
26.5
New Orleans
395 murders / 491,619 X 100,000 =
80.3
Richmond
112 murders / 205,331 X 100,000 =
54.5
Crime in Your Community
You’re at a community meeting to talk
about a recent rash of crimes. A reporter
with the local newspaper is there and
asks you this question.
What is the crime rate for the community?
What is your response?
Uniform Crime Reports
• Type
• Location
Data Reveals
Problems by......
• Month, Day & Time of Day
• Victims
• Victim Characteristics
• Offender Characteristics
• Circumstance
• Disposition
Uniform Crime Reporting Problems
Weaknesses
 Voluntary system in most states
 Police control the reporting
 Many crimes are not reported to the police
 Summary based system lacking detail
Uniform Crime Reporting Problems
• Schools
• Domestic Violence
• Public Housing
• Car Jacking
• New Problems ?
Crime Reporting
IBR
Incident Based Reporting
Intended to correct shortcomings of the
Uniform Crime Reporting System
Benefits of IBR Reporting
• greater specificity in reporting
• more correlation between offenses, property,
victims, offenders and arrestees
• expanded victim/offender relationships
• distinction between attempted and completed
crimes
• increased reporting of various circumstances
relative to specific crimes
IBR Part A Crimes
Murder
Negligent Manslaughter
Justifiable Homicide
Kidnapping
Forcible Rape
Forcible Sodomy
Sexual Assault with Object
Forcible Fondling (Child)
Robbery
Aggravated Assault
Simple Assault
Intimidation
Arson
Extortion/Blackmail
Burglary/B & E
Pocket-Picking
Purse-Snatching
Shoplifting
Theft from Building
Theft from Coin-Operated
Machine or Device
Theft from Motor Vehicle
Theft of Motor Vehicle Parts
All Other Thefts
Motor Vehicle Theft
Counterfeiting/Forgery
False Pretenses/Swindle
Credit Card/Teller Fraud
Impersonation
Welfare Fraud
Wire Fraud
Embezzlement
Stolen Property Offenses
Damage/Vandalism of Property
Drug/Narcotic Violations
Drug Equipment Violations
Incest
Statutory Rape
Pornography/Obscene Material
Betting/Wagering
Assisting Gambling
Gambling Equipment Violations
Sports Tampering
Prostitution
Assisting Prostitution
Bribery
Weapon Law Violations
IBR Part B Crimes
Bad Checks
Curfew/Loitering/Vagrancy Violations
Disorderly Conduct
Driving Under the Influence
Drunkenness
Family Offenses - Nonviolent
Liquor Law Violations
Peeping Tom
Runaway
Trespass of Real Property
All Other Offenses
Parole and probation violations
Escape from custody/resisting arrest
Contempt of court, perjury, court violations
Indecent exposure
Fighting
Neighborhood Watch
Does Neighborhood Watch Prevent Crime?
Especially Burglary
What does the IBR data say?
VA Burglary Prevention Data - IBR
147,225 Burglaries 2002 to 2006
Total
Prevention Measure
Alarm
Bars/Grate
Camera
Dog
Dead Bolt
Locked
Unlocked
Lights
Fence
Guard
Neighborhood Watch
Other
None
7,479
446
1,686
796
9,082
47,111
9,435
2,186
1,017
413
82
949
4,164
% of Total
5.1%
0.3%
1.1%
0.5%
6.2%
32.0%
6.4%
1.5%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.6%
9.6%
Burglary Trends
Burglaries per 100,000 persons
U.S.
VA
National Crime Victimization Survey
• Began in 1972, in part to measure crime not
reported to the police and to gather more detailed
information about crime.
• Measures the number of rapes, robberies,
assaults, burglaries and thefts that individuals
and households have experienced.
• Census Bureau surveys about 60,000 households
annually
National Crime Victimization Survey
• Collects information about reported and
unreported crime.
• Collects more detail about each crime - injuries,
time lost from work, protection measures used
and much more.
• Provides another process for measuring crime.
National Crime Victimization Survey
National Crime Victimization Survey
National Crime Victimization Survey
Some drawbacks:
• Victims may not be familiar with crime definitions,
i.e., a burglary vs a robbery.
• Victims may have problems recalling crime
victimizations.
• Problems with how the questions are worded.
• Cant’ be used as a substitute for locally reported
crime data.
Other Useful Information
• Police Service Calls
• Arrests
• Field Interrogation Cards
• Code Violations
• Maintenance Logs
• Community Demographics
Police Service Calls
Other Assaults
Forgery and Counterfeiting
Fraud
Embezzlement
Stolen Property
Vandalism
Weapons: Possessing, etc.
Prostitution and Commercialized
Vice
Narcotic Drug Laws:
Sale/Manufacture
Gambling
Offenses Against
Family/Children
Liquor Laws
Public Drunkenness
Disorderly Conduct
Curfew and Loitering
Runaways
Fights
Disorderliness
Loud noise
Abandoned child
Unsupervised child
Domestic quarrel
Man with a Gun
Shots fired
Man down
Missing Person
Fire
Trespassing
Person Refuses to Leave
Death
See Complainant for info
Threats
Found or Lost Property
Abandoned Vehicle
Police Service Calls
Do a significant number of your
service calls originate from a small
number of locations?
Police Service Calls - Minneapolis 85/86
Locations with
Multiple Service Calls
Burglar Alarm Calls
•
Burglar alarms generate a significant number of
police service calls - between 94% and 98%,
are false.
•
False alarms typically result from poor
maintenance or a lack of awareness about the
operation of the alarm system.
•
One study found that 20% of the alarm systems
trigger 80% of false alarms.
False Burglar Alarms, 2nd Edition, March 2007
COPS Office, Problem-Oriented Guides for Police Series, No. 5
www.cops.usdoj.gov/ric/ResourceDetail.aspx?RID=89
Crime Prevention - Reducing Service Calls
• A crime prevention officer can work with apartment
managers to revise leases and property
management practices that have been shown to
reduce crime and police service calls.
•
In a three year period, the Mesa Police Department
in Arizona reduced police service calls by 37%, and
police reports by 48% in 21 apartment communities.
Code Enforcement
Code Enforcement
120 W. Marshall Street
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Illegal Night Club
Promoted Illegal Graffiti
Illegal rooming house
Illegal alcohol sales
Unsafe structure
Imminent danger to life
3 days from complaint to
condemnation
Code Enforcement Data
Code Enforcement - Richmond, VA
•
•
•
•
•
1,000 complaints handled
500 properties inspected
Made over 300 arrests
1,800 violations cited
Conducted several multiagency operations
• $30,000 in fines
• Initiated collection of
$1,447,934 in Business
Taxes
• Initiated collection of over
$300,000 in Property Tax
• Seized $600,000.00 in
counterfeit goods
• 96% abatement rate
Federal Sources - NIOSH
National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health
The leading cause of
death of women in the
workplace is murder.
Women Working
1940 - 25%
1950 - 34%
1960 - 38%
1970 - 43%
1980 - 52%
1990 - 58%
1998 - 60%
2007 - 59%
Other Sources for Crime Information
• School Reports
• Hospital Emergency Room Admissions
• Public Opinion Polls
• Insurance Industry: Auto Theft and Arson
• Special Interest Groups: Handgun Control - NRA
• Industry Groups: convenience stores, shopping malls
• Rumor and Gossip
Perceptions of Crime - Gallop Poll
Is there more crime in the US than there was a year ago?
Public Opinion - School Safety
Industry Groups - Media Watchers
http://www.bigmedia.org/texts8.htm
• Rocky Mountain Media Watch
Over the last five years, almost half the news each
night concerns violent topics like crime, war,
disaster and terrorism.
• American Bar Association
TV coverage of Murder increased 439% from 1990
to 1995, while the Murder rate drop that period
dropped 13%.
Crime & Wal-Mart: “Is Wal-Mart Safe?”
Analysis of Official Police Incidents at Wal-Mart Stores
May 1, 2006: WakeUpWalMart.com
Police received 148, 331 calls for service for the
551 Wal-Mart stores analyzed in 2004.
Average number of reported incidents per store
for the 551 stores analyzed - 269
Wal-Mart stores with the most incidents in 2004,
experienced higher average rates of reported
police incidents than nearby Target stores.
Crime & Wal-Mart: “Is Wal-Mart Safe?”
Analysis of Official Police Incidents at Wal-Mart Stores
May 1, 2006: WakeUpWalMart.com
Based on the average rate of reported incidents
for Wal-Mart stores analyzed, the cost to local
taxpayers was an estimated $77 million in policing
costs in 2004.
Insurance Industry - Auto Theft
National Insurance Crime Bureau
10 most common stolen autos in Virginia - 2007
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
1996 Honda Accord
2000 Honda Civic
1995 Jeep Cherokee
1996 Dodge Caravan
1997 Ford Tarus
2002 Ford Explorer
2007 Toyota Camry
1995 F-150 Ford Pickup
1998 Toyota Corolla
2006 Nissan Altima
Industry Groups - Convenience Stores
http://www.nacsonline.com/NACS/Resource/StoreOperations
The National
Association of
Convenience Stores
(NACS)
gasoline drive off theft
cost their industry $300
million in 2005, an
average loss of $2,678
per store.
Impact of Business Practices
New development is abundant in Lower
Manhattan, and buyers are counting on
TriBeCa and the Financial District's
ability to transition from a 9-to-5
neighborhood to a vibrant 24-hour one.
August 2008
What’s the impact on law enforcement
and crime prevention services?
Crime Analysis
Using Crime and Related
Data to Explore Crime and
Other Public Safety Issues
Handguns in the Home - Gallup Poll
Handgun Violence
Prior to 1990, 80% of the handguns manufactured in
this country were revolvers - typically six shots.
Today over, 80% of the handguns manufactured are
semi-automatic, from 12 to 19 shots.
Domestic Pistol & Revolver Production
United States 1980 - 1998
Source: Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms
Revolver
FBI Murders
Pistol
(Semi-auto)
Crack
Weapons and Violence
Quemadmodum gladius
neminem occidit,
occidentis telum est.
“A sword never kills
anybody; it is a tool in
the killer's hand.”
Seneca the Younger:
Letters to Lucilius
(first century Rome)
Larceny from Autos
Global Recycling Network
Catalytic Converters Scrap Exchange Listings
WANTED : LW801241
Catalytic Convertor Scrap
Illinois and NW Indiana I am buying your catalytic
convertors at top dollar between $10 - $320 each. We
also buy scrap aluminum and copper Will pick up within
60 mile radius Cash paid. Located in Lynwood Illinois
and Schererville Indiana.
Price of Silver Per Ounce
$60
$55
$50
Value Adjusted for Inflation 2008
$40
$30
$21
$20
$15
$10
Actual Value
$0
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Silver Value of $10,000
How many pounds would you need to steal in 2008 dollars?
125 lbs
63 lbs
32 lbs
13lbs
16 lbs
21 lbs
Precious Metal Prices
July 1, 2008
• Platinum
$2,075 /oz
• Gold
$940 /oz
• Silver
$17.50 /oz
• Copper
$3.49 /lb
Burglary Predictor Month - June 8.1%
Burglary in Virginia
1975 - 1989 Red
1990 - 2005 Yellow
Robbery Predictor Month - June 7.3%
Robbery in Virginia
1975 - 1989 Red
1990 - 2005 Yellow
Auto Theft Predictor Month - ??
Auto Theft in Virginia
1975 - 1989 Red
1990 - 2005 Yellow
Criminal Assets Forfeited in Virginia
Program Totals
(since July 1, 1991)
Items Seized
42,232
Cars Seized
9,210
Money Seized
$69,782,828
Money Forfeited
$52,701,225
Uses for Forfeited Assets
• Drug Education and Awareness Programs
The costs associated with conducting drug
education and awareness programs by law
enforcement agencies.
• Salaries
Salaries of officers assigned to non-traditional
positions in approved specialized programs
which do not generally involve traditional law
enforcement functions such as DARE officers.
Felonious Deaths of Police Officers
http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/pdf/t31582005.pdf
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
% Not Wearing Vest
20%
% in Uniform
10%
0%
'84
'85
'86
'87
'88
'89
'90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
Crime Prevention Works
Soft Body Armor
• more than 3,000 lives
saved
• An officer who is NOT
wearing armor is 14 times
more likely to suffer a
fatal injury than an officer
who is wearing armor.
(National Institute of Justice)