Transcript Title of Presentation - Consortium for Ocean Leadership

Coastal Inundation Threats
to the Economy and
National Security
Ocean Leadership’s 2013 Policy Forum
March 6, 2013
Frank Nutter
President , Reinsurance Association of America
US Natural Catastrophe Update
Natural Catastrophes in the USA
1980 – 2012
Number of events
Number
2012 Total:
184 events
300
250
200
41
150
19
100
121
50
3
1980
1982
1984
1986
Geophysical events
(Earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic eruption)
Source: Munich Re
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Meteorological events
(Storm)
1998
2000
2002
2004
Hydrological events
(Flood, mass
movement)
2006
2008
2010
2012
Climatological events
(Extreme temperature,
drought, forest fire)
US Natural Catastrophe Update
Natural Catastrophes in the USA
1980 – 2012
Overall and insured losses
(bn US$)
Insured losses in the U.S. In 2012 were the second highest on record.
200
180
2012 Losses
160
Overall : $101.1B
140
Insured: $57.9B
120
100
80
60
40
20
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
Overall losses (in 2012 values)
Source: Munich Re
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Insured losses (in 2012 values)
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Natural Catastrophes Worldwide
1980 – 2012
Number of events
Number
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Geophysical events
Meteorological events
Hydrological events
Climatological events
(Earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic eruption)
(Storm)
(Flood, mass movement)
(Extreme temperature,
drought, forest fire)
Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2013
Top 12 Most Costly Hurricanes
in U.S. History
(Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions)
10 of the 12 most costly hurricanes in insurance history occurred
over the past 9 years (2004—2012)
Hurricane Irene
became the 12th most
expensive hurricane
in US history in 2011
Hurricane Sandy could
become the 3rd costliest
hurricane in US
insurance history
*Estimate as of 12/09/12 based on estimates of catastrophe modeling firms and reported losses as of 1/12/13. Estimates range up to $25B.
12/01/09 - 9pm
5
Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments to 2012 dollars using the CPI.
Top 16 Most Costly Disasters
in U.S. History
(Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions)
Hurricane Sandy
could become the 4th
or 5th costliest event in
US insurance history
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Includes
Tuscaloosa, AL,
tornado
Includes
Joplin, MO,
tornado
$20.0
$11.1
$9.2
$8.7
$7.8
$7.5
$6.7 $7.1
$4.4 $5.6 $5.6
Irene (2011) Jeanne
(2004)
Frances
(2004)
Rita
Tornadoes/Tornadoes/ Hugo
(2005) T-Storms T-Storms
(1989)
(2011)
(2011)
Hurricane Irene became the
12th most expense hurricane
in US history in 2011
Ivan
(2004)
Charley
(2004)
Wilma
(2005)
$48.7
$23.9 $24.6 $25.6
$13.4
Ike
(2008)
Sandy* Northridge9/11 Attack Andrew
(2012)
(1994)
(2001)
(1992)
Katrina
(2005)
12 of the 16 Most Expensive
Events in US History Have
Occurred Over the Past Decade
*Estimate
as of-12/09/12
based on estimates of catastrophe modeling firms and reported losses as of 1/12/13. Estimates range up to $25B.
12/01/09
9pm
6
Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments to 2012 dollars using the CPI.
Number of Federal Disaster
Declarations, 1953-2013*
There have been 2,101
federal disaster
declarations since
1953. The average
number of declarations
per year is 35 from
1953-2012, though that
few haven’t been
recorded since 1995.
The number of federal
disaster declarations set a
new record in 2011, with 99,
shattering 2010’s record 81
declarations.
47 federal disasters
were declared in 2012
The Number of Federal Disaster Declarations Is Rising and Set New Records
in 2010 and 2011. Hurricane Sandy Produced 13 Declarations in 2012/13.
*Through Feb. 24, 2013.
Source: Federal Emergency Management Administration; http://www.fema.gov/disasters; Insurance Information Institute.
Inflation Adjusted U.S. Catastrophe
Losses by Cause of Loss, 1990–20111
Wind/Hail/Flood (3), $14.8
Fires (4), $6.0
Other (5), $1.4
Geological Events, $18.2
Terrorism, $24.4
Winter Storms, $28.2
Tornado share of
CAT losses is
rising
Tornadoes (2), $130.2
Insured cat losses
from 1992-2011
totaled $384.3B, an
average of $19.2B
per year or $1.6B
per month
Hurricanes & Tropical
Storms, $161.3
Wind losses are by
far cause the most
catastrophe losses,
even if hurricanes/TS
are excluded.
1. Catastrophes are defined as events causing direct insured losses to property of $25 million or more in 2009 dollars.
2. Excludes snow.
3. Does not include NFIP flood losses
4. Includes wildland fires
5. Includes civil disorders, water damage, utility disruptions and non-property losses such as those covered by workers compensation.
Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services Unit.
Federal Disasters Declarations by State,
1953 – 2013: Highest 25 States*
Over the past 60
years, Texas has
had the highest
number of Federal
Disaster
Declarations
*Through
Feb. 24,
2012. Includes Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia.
12/01/09
- 9pm
Source: FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema; Insurance Information Institute.
9
Federal Disasters Declarations by State,
1953 – 2013: Lowest 25 States*
Over the past 60 years,
Wyoming and Rhode
Island had the fewest
number of Federal
Disaster Declarations
9
15
15
13
11
10
10
17
17
22
23
24
24
24
25
26
26
28
28
34
35
36
38
39
18
20
30
30
36
Disaster Declarations
40
39
50
0
ME SD AK GA WI NJ VT NH OR MA PR HI MI AZ MD NM ID MT CT NV CO DE SC DC UT RI WY
*Through
Feb. 24,
2013. Includes Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia.
12/01/09
- 9pm
Source: FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema; Insurance Information Institute.
10
Federal Aid Requests for States With Greatest
Sandy Impact & Federal Aid Proposals
Billions
$33B to repair
subways, hospitals
and other facilities;
$9B to upgrade
infrastructure
against future
storms
$42.0
$9.0
$33.0
$29.5B to repair schools
roads, bridges,
businesses, homes and
other facilities; $7.4B to
for mitigation and
prevention against
future storms
$36.9
$7.9
$7.4
$6.0
$29.5
$60
$3.2B to bury
power lines,
upgrade
transmission
systems, build
sewage treatment
plants and other
mitigation projects
$3.2
States Requested Enormous Sums in Sandy Aid in the Middle of the
“Fiscal Cliff” Debate, Causing Delays
*As of Jan. 2, 2013.
Source: New York Times, Dec. 6, 2012; Insurance Information Institute research.
Resiliency Strategies
• Assess community resiliency
– Building stock, critical facilities, infrastructure, supply chain
•
•
•
•
•
•
State/ local Chief Risk Officer
State authority over local safety/health and security actions
Evaluate business interruption financing
Improve building code and enforcement
Develop a private sector emergency response capability
Incorporate extreme weather and climate into state/local federal
decision making
• Use nature to mitigate risk (Coastal Barrier Resources Act)
• Provide tax credits, disaster financing and/or a revolving loan fund
for mitigation
• Reduce the Federal share of disaster assistance to communities or
provide incentives for mitigation
Is the NTSB a prototype for resiliency assessment?
www.reinsurance.org