Examples in Quantifying Flood Risk

Doug Bellomo July 13, 2009 National Flood Risk Management Summit

Risk MAP (Mapping, Assessment, Planning) Vision

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP

Through collaboration with State, Local, and Tribal entities, Risk MAP will deliver quality data that increases public awareness and leads to action that reduces risk to life and property.

Flood Hazard Data

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP 

Goal 1: Address gaps in flood hazard data to form a solid foundation for risk assessment, floodplain management and actuarial soundness of the National Flood Insurance Program.

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5

Decile

6 7 8 9 10

Flood Study Determination by Type

Detailed Study Approx/Redelin Total Formula Detailed Study Approx/Redelin

Public Awareness/Outreach

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Goal 2: Ensure that a measurable increase of the public’s awareness and understanding of risk results in a measurable reduction of current and future vulnerability.

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP

Hazard Mitigation Planning

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Goal 3: Lead and support States, local, and Tribal communities to effectively engage in risk-based mitigation planning resulting in sustainable actions that reduce or eliminate risks to life and property from natural hazards.

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP

Enhanced Digital Platform

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Goal 4: Provide an enhanced digital platform that improves management of Risk MAP, stewards information produced by Risk MAP, and improves communication and sharing of risk data and related products to all levels of government and the public .

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP

Alignment and Synergies

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Goal 5: Align Risk Analysis programs and develop synergies to enhance decision making capabilities through effective risk communication and management.

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP

Risk MAP Tools

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP 

Risk MAP tools to quantify risk may include:

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Base digital dataset

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Nationwide risk assessment

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Multiple frequency flood data

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Flood depth grids

Risk-Based Solutions Tailored to Unique Community Requirements

Communities and Risk

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Communities must use the tools and data to:

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Better Quantify Risk

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Plan Their Future Execute

“Cities routinely build in the flood plain…That's not an act of God; that's an act of City Council.”

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Source: Washingtonpost.com, 6/19/09

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP

Quantify and Track

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP No Plan/NFIP Minimums Plan/Higher Standards Time

Quantifying Reduced Risk

Risk – Expected Annualized Losses Current (To) "c" Expected Future (Tn) "e" Actual Future (Tn) "a" Current (To) "c" Current Risk (Rcc) Built Environment Planned Future (Tn) "e" Expected Future Risk if Hazard Does not Change (Rec) Actual Future (Tn) "a" Actual Risk if Hazard had not changed (Rac) Expected Risk if Only Hazard Changes (Rce) Expected Future Risk (Ree) Actual Risk if Hazard changed as Expected (Rae) Actual Risk if Only Hazard Changed (Rca) Actual Risk if Land Use Went as Planned (Rea) Actual Future Risk (Raa)

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP

Demonstrating Reduced Risk

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP

Risk Analysis Division — Risk MAP