Transcript Slide 1

A CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC:
PREPARING FOR A GROWING ELDERLY
POPULATION
Richard Deitz
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
September 17, 2009
[email protected]
OVERVIEW
Upstate New York, like the nation, has an aging
population—and is older than is typical in the U.S.
1. Retirements will create a need for workers in pockets
of the economy, despite no net growth in jobs
2. An increase in the number of frail and disabled elderly
who rely on local services and infrastructure
3. Seniors may find it hard to ‘age in place’ because of a
growing disparity between the features of the houses
they own and the houses they need
AGING POPULATION
Age Index (1970 = 100)
elderly population
is growing
The non-elderly
population
is flat
Old-old growing faster
than young-old
75+
200
Upstate New York
65+
150
65-74
100
<65
50
Note: Post 2000 data are projected
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and NY Statistical Information System, Cornell University
AGING POPULATION
The elderly share of the population is rising
Share of Population 65+
1 in 5
20%
1 in 7
15%
Upstate NY
1 in 10
U.S.
10%
5%
Note: Post 2000 data are projected
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Economy.com
AGING POPULATION
Upstate metro areas among oldest in nation
Syracuse
13.3%
Rochester
13.4%
th
Buffalo 11
15.4%
26th
28th
Note: Ranked out of 101 metro areas with 500,000+ population
25th
Albany
13.5%
Source: 2007 American Community Survey
AGING POPULATION
Inner-ring suburbs tend to have more elderly
Buffalo
Rochester
Share of Population 65+, 2000
<19%
19% - 23%
>23%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
OUT-MIGRATION
A net outflow of the working-age population
Migration of the Population Aged 30-64, 1995 - 2000
Number Percent
Rank
In-migration
193,090
6.6%
50
Out-migration
255,851
8.7%
27
Net
-62,761 -2.2%
48
Notes: Rank is of 51, if upstate New York were a separate state from downstate New York; Age group examined
tends to eliminate college students who may have moved to the region only to attend school.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
OUT-MIGRATION
Out-migration is typical, but little in-migration
14
Rank: 29
12
13.4%
10
8
Rank: 51
9.3%
6
Migration Rate of Population
Between 1995 and 2000
Aged 30 – 64
in Upstate NY
Rank: 27
Rank: 48
7.0%
5.6%
4
2
0
4 or more years of college
Out-migration
Less than 4 years of college
In-migration
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
AGING POPULATION
Much of the elderly population doing well
More low-income elderly in the region
But fewer in poverty
Income >$35,000
39%
Upstate
38%
U.S.
30%
Income <$15,000
27%
7%
10%
Below Poverty*
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Percentage of 65+ Population, 2000
* Values are for percentage of individuals aged 65 and over
50%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
WORKERS NEEDED
Despite no net job growth:
• Occupations with greater concentrations of older
workers face more rapid retirements
• Economic restructuring is creating a need for more
workers in many key occupations
• This combination will cause significant labor market
pressures in some occupations
• Employers will increasingly need to focus on finding
and retaining key workers
RETIREMENTS
Management
19.3%
Community & Social Services
19.0%
Education
18.1%
Business & Finance
16.5%
Production
15.4%
Personal Care & Tourism
14.0%
Healthcare Support
14.0%
Construction
12.6%
Computer/IT
10.0%
Food Preparation
8.4%
(2002–2012)
Source: Bureau of the Census, NYS Department of Labor
Projected retirement rates in the U.S.
WORKERS NEEDED
Greatest Need
Least Need
Community & Social Services
Production
Office & Admin. Support
Food Preparation
Architects & Engineers
Physical & Social Scientists
Sales and Retail
- Social Workers
- Substance Abuse Counselors
- Clergy
Healthcare Support
- Nursing Aides
- Medical & Dental Assistants
- Physical Therapists
Teachers & Librarians
Building Maintenance
Personal Services & Tourism
- Gaming Dealers
- Funeral Attendants
- Child Care
Protection
- Police
- Firefighters
DEMAND FOR SERVICES
Four groups that most rely on support
• Disabled – frequently rely on accessible transportation and
special forms of housing
• Low-income seniors – more likely to rely on public programs
and otherwise need support
• Living alone – less likely to have family assistance, tend to
have worse health outcomes following hospitalization
• Over 75 – more likely to experience declining health, loss of a
spouse, diminished income & assets
HIGH-NEEDS ELDERLY
Upstate’s older population is of higher need
Percent of Older Population with Selected Characteristics, 2000
Population Aged 65 and Over
Upstate New York
United States
Disability
38.3
41.9
Low-income
39.5
37.8
Living alone
32.8
29.5
75 and over
49.5
47.4
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
HIGH-NEEDS ELDERLY
More elderly coupled with higher need will lead to
greater demand for services & infrastructure
Concentration of High-Needs Elderly in Large MSAs, 2000
U.S. Median
75+ and low income
65+ and significant
disability
Rochester
75+ and living alone
Syracuse
Buffalo
0
1
2
3
4
Percentage of Total Population
5
6
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
HIGH-NEEDS ELDERLY
Demand concentrated in older, first-ring suburbs
Concentration of High-Needs Elderly by Community Type,
Large Metro Areas in Upstate New York, 2000
Rural Suburbs
75+ and low income
65+ and significant
disability
New Suburbs
75+ and living alone
Primary Cities
Old Suburbs
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percentage of Total Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
CHALLENGES
• Demand highest in those parts of the region
already experiencing fiscal stress
• Public provision will continue to be under
pressure, especially as budgets tighten
• Community based organizations that serve the
region’s older population may find it increasingly
difficult to obtain resources from government
AGING IN PLACE
Seniors prefer to age in place
• 80% aged 50+ prefer to remain at home even if need
assistance (AARP: 2000)
Growing opportunity
• Access to long-term care services in home- and
community-based settings
• Mandate under ADA
AGING IN PLACE
Most upstate seniors are homeowners
Homeownership Rate%
85
Age 65-74
80
Age 75-84
75
70
65
60
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
AGING IN PLACE
Homes often ill-suited to changing needs
• Physical layout makes accessibility difficult
• Maintenance and repair needs can be high
• Location often remote or inconvenient
AGING IN PLACE
Homes in upstate New York may be
particularly ill-suited
Older vintage
• Nearly 70% of senior-owned homes built pre-1960
• 80% of senior homeowners have been living in
home for > 20 years
Low density
• More than 80% of owned homes are
single-family, detached
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
AGING IN PLACE
Case Study: Erie County’s senior population and housing
City Of
Buffalo
Inner
Suburbs
Outer
Suburbs
26
$30,867
56
100
76
56
$39,242
60
69
90
14
$42,787
67
7
93
6
72
$66,177
1
49
16
$95,007
25
43
19
$125,732
83
Population Characteristics
Distribution of Residents
Mean Income
Live With Others
Live Within Three Miles of Hospital
Vehicle Available
Housing Characteristics
Single-Story Home
Home Built Pre 1940
Mean Home Value
Lot Size Greater Than ¼ Acre
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, NYS Office of Real Property Services
EMERGING RESPONSES
Market responses
• Home modification and design services
• Personal and household services
• Geriatric health technologies and products
Community responses
• Neighborhood partnerships to negotiate service provision
• Non-profit services (transportation, meals, prescreened
contractors)
Policy responses
• Interventions to avoid or delay institutional care
• Medicaid coverage of housekeeping, heating assistance, etc.
CONCLUSIONS
• Growing senior population will create many
challenges for the region
• Even with little (if any) net job growth, workers will
be in demand in some pockets of the economy
• Upstate New York has a somewhat higher needs
population than is typical, concentrated in inner cities
and older suburbs
• Demand for aging related services, housing, and
infrastructure likely to be strongest where fiscal
stress is greatest