Transcript House Committee on Redistricting and the House Committee

Demographic Characteristics and Trends
of Bexar County and San Antonio, TX
Leadership San Antonio
Understand Infrastructure.
Prepare for Growth.
May 2, 2012
San Antonio, TX
Select Growing States, 2000-2010
2000
Population*
United States
2010
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2010
Percent
Change
2000-2010
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6%
15.7% of numerical
change in U.S.
Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
2
Total Population by County, 2010
Total Population
Number of People
Population % Change, 2000 to 2010
Percent Change
82 - 9,999
-21% - -10.1%
10,000 - 24,999
-10% - -0.1%
25,000 - 99,999
0% - 24.9%
100,000 - 999,999
25% - 54.9%
1,000,000 - 4,092,459
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.
Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
55% - 81.8%
3
Select Growing Counties, 2000-2010
2000
Population*
2010
Population*
Numeric Change
Percent Change
Harris County
3,400,578
4,092,459
691,881
20.4
Dallas County
2,218,899
2,368,139
149,240
6.8
Tarrant County
1,446,219
1,809,034
362,815
25.1
Bexar County
1,392,931
1,714,773
321,842
23.1
Travis County
812,280
1,024,266
211,986
26.1
Guadalupe
County
89,023
131,533
42,510
47.8%
Comal County
78,021
108,472
30,451
39.0%
Wilson County
32,408
42,918
10,510
32.4%
Kendall County
23,743
33,410
9,667
40.7%
Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
4
Select Growing U.S. Cities, 2000-2010
2000
Population*
2010
Population*
Numeric Change
Percent Change
New York, NY
8,008,278
8,175,133
166,855
2.1%
Los Angeles, CA
3,694,820
3,796,621
97,801
2.6%
Chicago, IL
2,896,016
2,695,598
-200,418
-6.9%
Houston, TX
1,953,631
2,099,451
145,820
7.5%
Philadelphia, PA
1,517,550
1,526,006
8,456
0.6%
Phoenix, AZ
1,321,045
1,445,632
124,587
9.4%
San Antonio, TX
1,144,646
1,327,407
182,761
16.0%
San Diego, CA
1,223,400
1,307,402
84,002
6.9%
Dallas, TX
1,188,580
1,197,816
9,236
0.8%
894,943
945,942
50,999
5.7%
San Jose, CA
Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
5
Numeric and Percent Change of Top 10
Fastest Growing MSAs, 2010-2011
140 000
3,5
120 000
3
100 000
2,5
80 000
2
60 000
1,5
40 000
1
20 000
0,5
0
0
Numeric Change
Percent Change
6
Total Population and Components of Population
Change in Texas, 1950-2011
Percent Change Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change**
Percent
Change
--
--
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
--
--
1950
7,711,194
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
49.65
50.35
2009
24,782,302
3,930,484
18.8
54.04
45.33
2010
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
2011
25,674,681
529,120
2.1
54.79
44.99
All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1, as estimated by
the U.S. Census Bureau.
** Change is from previous decade/time period
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.
7
Components of Change for Bexar County,
2010-2011
Area
Texas
Total
Population
Change
Natural Increase
Total
Percent
Vital Events
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Total
Percent
International
Domestic
529,120
288,479
54.5
493,650
205,171
238,956
45.2
93,641
145,315
Harris
County
88,452
61,240
69.2
88,975
27,735
27,343
30.9
24,187
3,156
Dallas
County
47,875
34,209
71.5
51,851
17,642
13,692
28.6
15,203
-1,511
Travis
County
38,858
14,665
37.7
20,273
5,608
23,914
61.5
6,461
17,453
Bexar
County
41,376
19,535
47.2
33,357
13,822
21,605
52.2
4,605
17,000
Value for 2010 is for the decennial census conducted April 1, 2010. Values for 2011 are for July 1, as estimated by the U.S. Census
Bureau.
** Change is from previous time period
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.
8
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
1990-2010
1990
2000
2010
NH White
Hispanic
NH White
Hispanic
NH White
Hispanic
NH Black
NH Other
NH Black
NH Other
NH Black
NH Other
2%
4%
12%
6%
11%
11%
45%
25%
53%
61%
32%
38%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990, 2000, and 2010 Census counts.
9
Bexar County Racial and Ethnic Composition,
1990-2010
1990
2000
2010
NH White
Hispanic
NH White
Hispanic
NH White
Hispanic
NH Black
NH Other
NH Black
NH Other
NH Black
NH Other
1%
3%
7%
7%
54%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990, 2000, and 2010 Census counts.
4%
30%
36%
42%
50%
7%
59%
10
San Antonio Racial and Ethnic Composition,
1990-2010
1990
2000
2010
NH White
Hispanic
NH White
Hispanic
NH White
Hispanic
NH Black
NH Other
NH Black
NH Other
NH Black
NH Other
1%
3%
7%
6%
6%
27%
32%
36%
56%
4%
59%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990, 2000, and 2010 Census counts.
63%
11
Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages
for Texas, 2000-2040
70%
60%
50%
40%
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
30%
20%
10%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
0%
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario.
12
Projected Racial and Ethnic Population
Percentages for Bexar County, 2000-2040
70%
60%
50%
White
40%
Black
30%
Hispanic
Other
20%
10%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
0%
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario.
13
Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Median age
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.
14
Texas Population Pyramid, 2010
Median age
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.
15
Percent
Age Group as a Percentage of the Total Bexar
County Population, 1990-2010
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
2000
2010
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.
16
Percent Change in Population by Age Group,
2000-2010
80
70
Percent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Texas
San Antonio
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.
17
Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in
Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected
2000
2040
Percent
5% - 9.9%
10% - 14.9%
15% - 19.9%
20% - 24.9%
25% - 30.7%
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario.
Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
18
Projected Population Among Older Texans
4 000 000
3 500 000
3 000 000
2 500 000
65 to 74
2 000 000
75 to 84
1 500 000
85 plus
1 000 000
500 000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
0
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario.
19
Projected Population Among Seniors in Bexar
County
200 000
180 000
160 000
140 000
120 000
65 to 74
100 000
75 to 84
80 000
85 plus
60 000
40 000
20 000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
0
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario.
20
Implications for Education, the Labor Force,
Health Care, and Transportation
21
Percent Educational Attainment for
Population 25 and Over
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Less than High
School
High School or
equivalency
Texas
Some college or Bachelor's degree
Associate's
degree
Bexar County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates.
Graduate or
Professional
degree
San Antonio
22
Percent Educational Attainment by
Race/Ethnicity, 2010
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
NH White
Hispanic
NH White
Texas
Hispanic
San Antonio
Less than High School
High School or equivalency
Bachelor's degree
Graduate or Professional degree
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates.
Some college or Associate's degree
23
Socioeconomic Characteristics for San Antonio
Population 25 Years Plus, 2010
Percent
Educational
Attainment
Median
Earnings
Percent in
Poverty
Less than
High School
High School
or
equivalency
Some college
or Associate’s
degree
Bachelor’s
degree
Graduate or
Professional
degree
19.8
25.6
30.8
15.0
8.8
$18,379
$23,395
$30,360
$46,169
$61,019
28.8
15.9
10.4
5.2*
--
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates.
Note: Percent in poverty for population with Bachelor’s degree also includes those with graduate and professional degrees
24
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational
Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
35
30,1
30
29,0
28,7
28,7
23,9
Percent
25
20
18,8
18,2
15
12,9
10
5,3
5
4,4
0
No High School
Diploma
High School Graduate
Some College
2000
Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional
Degree
2040
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
Health Insurance Coverage Status, 2009
Adults aged 18 to 64
Number
Uninsured
Children aged 18 and under
Percent
Uninsured
Number
Uninsured
Percent
Uninsured
4,607,983
30.9
1,205,354
16.9
Bexar County
282,839
28.5
64,853
13.6
Harris County
830,241
33.3
235,727
19.5
Dallas County
553,800
36.8
153,357
21.6
Travis County
184,150
26.7
39,132
15.3
Texas
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 Small Area Health Insurance Estimates.
26
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by
Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario 27
Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by
Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040
8 000 000
6 000 000
Total
4 000 000
Latino
Anglo
African American
2 000 000
Other
0
Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario 28
Sizing and Serving Texas Urban Gaps
29
Sizing and Serving Texas Urban Gaps
Urban gaps identified in the following urbanized areas:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Amarillo
Austin
Beaumont
College Station – Bryan
Corpus Christi
Dallas – Fort Worth – Arlington
Denton – Lewisville
El Paso
Galveston
Houston
Killeen
Longview
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lubbock
Midland
Odessa
Port Arthur
San Antonio
Temple
Texarkana
Tyler
Victoria
Waco
Wichita Falls
Source: Texas Department of Transportation: RMC 0-6473
Texas A&M University/Texas Transportation Institute & University of Texas at San Antonio, Institute for Demographic and
Socioeconomic Research
Urban Transit Gap Findings
Estimated 4.2 million persons living in urban gaps in 2010
Percent of Texas
Urban Gap
Population, 2010
Percent of
Urbanized Area
Population
Dallas-Fort WorthArlington
45.9%
38.1%
Houston
31.1%
27.3%
San Antonio
4.6%
12.5%
Austin
5.0%
17.8%
Urbanized area
Source: Texas Department of Transportation: RMC 0-6473
Texas A&M University/Texas Transportation Institute & University of Texas at San Antonio, Institute for Demographic and
Socioeconomic Research
31
Demographics & Destiny
32
Contact
Office of the State Demographer
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://osd.state.tx.us
33